Daily Market Analysis -- May 5th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	479 3/4	-6
Corn Dec '26	500	-4 1/4
Beans July '26	1210 1/4	-12 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1188	-8 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	628 1/2	-12 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	691 3/4	-2 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	695 1/4	-3 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	85.33	+1.65
Crude Oil June '26	102.46	-3.96
US Dollar Index	98.315	-0.030
Dow Jones	49,411	+332

Daily Glance

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After yesterday's strong rally, today saw a corrective tone take hold from the opening bell, with selling pressure persisting through the session. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed near their intraday lows.

July corn actually  did manage to push to a fresh high for the move early on, putting in a double top with the March 9 high before sharply turning lower. Beans gave back a good chunk of yesterday's gains, and wheat continued to shed value off last week's new for the year plus high.

The retracement came alongside a softer crude oil market, down around $2 and now roughly $10 off last week's highs. The relative calm in the Iran situation, with the ceasefire holding and Iranian foreign minister Aragchi noting progress in peace talks, took some of the urgency out of the energy complex. Equities were firm again as Trump continues to work to keep stocks supported and crude contained, even while saying he won't hesitate to ramp tariffs back up if needed.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn made another fresh high today clearing the resistance at 482 that we mentioned in Friday's letter. We see next resistance at the  previous peaks near 4.88 -4.92 and then at 4.98-5.00   Support should be seen at 481-483 and remains below at 472 and 465.

July soybeans had their first close above $12.00 in six plus weeks on Friday, and today hit their best level since March 16. Resistance is now seen near 1227-1230 and then 1260.  We now see support at 1214-1218 and 1190-1195.

Spreads: The July/November inverse corrected a bit today on the overall weakness, back to 21 1/2. The tightest its gotten recently is 18 1/2.   Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread continues to be rangebound between an 18-21 cent carry, ending at 20 1/4 today. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes.

Weather: TStorm left their corn and soybean ratings unchanged at Neutral today, while winter wheat remains at Slightly Favorable.

A cold front focuses rain on the southeast Corn Belt and mid-South into tomorrow, while a wave of energy produces rain (and some snow) on HRW wheat in and near CO and western KS. Temperatures turn much colder behind the front, with a freeze Thursday morning as minimums in and near CO and western KS fall to 24F to 30F.

Some showers probably affect parts of the central and southern Plains, southern Corn Belt, and mid-South Sat. through Mon. when a weak wave passes, but with totals only inconsequential to light. Thereafter, a stormy period is probable across the southeast half of the Corn Belt and mid-South as two systems pass next Tue. through Sun. (May 12-17), while a large swath from the northern Plains into the northwest Corn Belt stays fairly dry.

The Corn Belt and mid-South will be much cooler than normal over the next 7 days, while the Plains are seasonable (mild west, cool east). A warmer period starts Sun. through Wed. and then continues, including some heat on HRW wheat as 80s-90s unfold in the central and southern Plains.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The high potential for a possible session happening like it did today is part of why we felt compelled to pull the trigger on yesterday's sale recommendations. Our view was that the market had gotten a bit overextended both on the charts and relative to where fundamentals actually sit, and today's action lends some support to that thinking. That said, in these sharper trending markets, initial pullbacks tend to get bought, and with funds carrying record long positions across the ag complex, we'd have to think they will be there to defend those longs on breaks.

For corn, the double top in July at the March 9 high near 487 1/2 is now a level to watch. A failure to take that out on the next attempt would suggest the recent run is in need of more than a one day breather, but we'd expect support to show up well ahead of any meaningful test of the downside given the macro backdrop and the Beijing summit just over a week away.

For beans, the story is similar. The bulls had their first close above $12.00 in six plus weeks on Friday and pushed higher Monday, but today's reversal off yesterday's high tells you the trade is hesitant to commit much further until we get something concrete out of the May 14-15 summit. Support should hold ahead of that meeting, but follow through above the recent highs is going to require a tangible Chinese commitment.

The May 12 WASDE is the next data point on the calendar and will be especially meaningful for wheat, where the Small Grains forecast hits the same day. For those who missed yesterday's sales, our guess is the market gives you another look at these levels before the summit, and we'd use that opportunity to take some additional risk off the table.

Other Notes

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Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 28 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 264k. They sold 8k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 186k, and bought 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net long position of roughly 13k contracts after being net short the prior week.

 In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 13 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat gained 44 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained another 4 cents, soybeans gained 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gave back 20 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.