Daily Commodity Market Analysis 05/26/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	457 3/4	-5 3/4
Corn Dec '26	482	-4 1/2
Beans July '26	1186	-10 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1180 1/4	-7 1/2
Wheat-Chi July '26	635 1/2	-10 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	676 1/4	-5 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	691 3/4	+2 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	79.86	+0.53
Crude Oil June '26	93.93	-2.67
US Dollar Index	99.095	+0.175
Dow Jones	50,524	-138

Daily Glance commodity market

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Following the long weekend, our markets opened on the defensive, led by a sharply lower crude oil market on the back of a series of Trump tweets over the weekend where he stated that the agreement with Iran was nearly complete and that the Strait should be fully open soon.

Late yesterday, there were reports of "defensive" missiles from the US, and while there was no real damage done, it was enough to put the "deal" in a bit of doubt. Crude was able to firm today well off its lows, although it still closed down nearly $3.

With corn and soybeans now both below their 50 day averages and fund managers so long, the intraday bounces they both had didn't last, with more likely continuing to head for the exit doors.

Despite the weakness, both July corn and soybeans did manage to stay above their lows from two Fridays ago, which will now likely serve as a major pivot point going forward.

Equity markets were mixed, with a sharply higher Nasdaq as it continues to surge to all time high after all time high, and a moderately lower Dow.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn continues its slide with it now having closed under its 50 day moving average four consecutive sessions. The low from two Friday's ago near 455 sits just below today's close and will likely be a key pivot spot as we get into the latter half of this week. Last week's high near 469 is resistance and a level bulls want to see breached again and sooner than later. Below 455 support comes in around 446 and then 435.

July soybeans closed under their 50 day as well today and we are now just 13 cents from the low from two Fridays ago. Support is just below today's low near 1183 and below that at 1171 and then down towards 1140. There is a head and shoulders (bearish formation) near 1216 that bulls want to see broken through.Today's close looks like it closed below that "neckline" as well so a swift turnaround is likely needed or we could we are likely headed lower towards that aforementioned 1140 level.

Spreads: The July/November inverse is back near its recent low closing at just 6 cents today with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely.

The July/Dec corn spread widened a bit to 24 1/2, a level we certainly find attractive considering the impressive run of exports.

Weather:  TStorm has corn, beans, and wheat all at Neutral today, with winter wheat downgraded from Slightly Favorable.

A large upper level high is expected to leave the northern third to half of the central US sharply warmer than normal over the next 10 to 15 days, including all spring wheat acres. Most of the Corn Belt looks fairly dry this week and next as high pressure keeps humidities too low for much rain. Some thunderstorms are expected across the southern third of the US and the western Plains through early next week with 0.75 to 1.75 inches south and less to the west, though more would be welcome given April and May combined will likely be among or the driest since 1971 in MT, ND, and SD. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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The bigger picture story really has not changed. Our fundamental view continues to get more friendly as we look ahead, with ending stocks likely to come down and Chinese trade progress quietly turning more constructive in the background. The HPAI poultry restrictions being lifted across all 17 states and continued chatter that import duties on US beans and grain could be next are the kind of developments that matter a great deal over the next several months.

The problem in the meantime is that funds are still carrying historically large length, the technical picture has weakened, and the headwinds out of crude and Iran were obviously not helpful. With corn now closing below its 50 day for several sessions running and beans joining it for the first time today, fund managers are likely to keep paring length, and the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term.

That said, the fact that July corn and beans both managed to hold above their lows from two Fridays ago despite everything thrown at them today has to be viewed as at least a small positive. Those levels will serve as the major pivot going forward, and a break of them would open the door to more meaningful downside.

We continue to stand by our view that this is not the start of a new bear market, even if a major positive development comes out of the war. The combination of tightening balance sheets, improving Chinese demand, and still the potential of a weather setup, should ultimately put a floor under things. For now though, sellers have more control than they have had in awhile, and we would not be surprised to see another leg lower before this works itself out.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 19 showed actively traded funds bought a net 14k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 314k contracts. They sold 7k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 208k, and sold 6k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 25k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 5 cents, July beans lost 28 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 12 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 12 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 21 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.