Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 5/20/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	465 3/4	-9 1/2
Corn Dec '26	489 1/4	-8 1/2
Beans July '26	1199 3/4	-9 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1193 1/2	-9 1/2
Wheat-Chi July '26	660 1/2	-6 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	698 3/4	-5
Wheat-MN July '26	694 1/2	-2
Cotton Dec '26	82.96	-0.20
Crude Oil June '26	97.95	-6.20
US Dollar Index	99.01	-.26
Dow Jones	50009	+645

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets were blindsided today by early morning comments from President Trump implying that US/Iran peace talks were progressing very well and that the Strait of Hormuz could be opening soon. This encouraged aggressive selling in the crude oil market, which was already trading lower than yesterday's close, and the weakness quickly spread to soybean oil and corn, the two markets closely associated with crude oil prices, and then spilled over to soybeans and wheat as well.

Another negative factor was the absence of any tangible evidence of increased demand from China nor any official lowering of tariffs, although Chinese sources did describe the summit talks as having provided "trade progress". 

Prices in both corn and beans firmed a few cents from their session lows. but July corn settled at a three day low and July beans and wheat at two day lows.

Outside markets reacted to the announcement in a very big way with solid gains in the stock market and sharply lower crude oil which ended at a four day low.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn closed back below its 50 day average on this pullback which should provide resistance at the average of 469, and then above at 477 and 482. The support we cited yesterday at 4.68-4.72 failed to hold and we now see support at 461-463 and at the recent swing low at 455.   

July soybeans' support at their 50 average of 1192 still stands, and below that at 1180-1182. Resistance is now seen at 1212, 1219-1221, and 1233-1235.

Spreads: The July/November inverse was virtually unchanged today at 6 1/4 with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely.

The July/Dec corn spread lost a penny today, closing at a 23 1/2 cent carry.

Weather: Weather conditions per T-Storm ratings are Neutral for both corn and soybeans, and Slightly Favorable for wheat.

Although some serious pockets of dryness are widespread, much of the midwest has received helpful rains in the last several days.  Here is today's summary forecast from TStorm:

GFS ensemble is considerably drier than previously in the Plains, AR, and MO over the next week. A complex forecast exists for next week and it will not be resolved for at least a couple of days. Our general forecast remains for areas of rain over the next 3 to 7 days, then drying and warmth with time.  

Areas of energy, an upper-level system, and a decaying cold front interact to produce areas of rain in the central U.S. through Sat.-Sun. with totals mostly light across the northwest half of the Corn Belt, and light to moderate elsewhere, which is not ideal for remaining planting after recent rains. Cool weather generally prevails through then.

A much warmer period starts Sun.-Tue. and then continues for awhile as maximums reach the mid-70s to mid-80s and minimums stay in the 50s-60s. Warmth happens because upper-level high pressure in the Southeast will cause southerly winds to envelop a wide area and increase mugginess with time.  

Markets/Trading Implications

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Not an impressive day today for our markets, as the comments from President Trump provided some serious headwinds and the trade is undoubtedly concerned about how literally to take the bullish information stated in the summit "fact sheet" recently released. Dealing with China is obviously always a tricky endeavor, and the lack of any tangible evidence that they are on the same page as what the White House has communicated creates even more uncertainty. 

Corn's return to the underside of its 50 day average is not good news, but in the big picture both corn and beans appear to be content staying in a sideways pattern, waiting for some affirmation from China that they are indeed ready and willing to step up their buying. Funds still have a strong bias for higher markets and as long as that remains the case, we think further downside risk is likely not significant in the short to intermediate term. 

Other Notes

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Here are the updated charts for old and new corn and beans, as well at their weekly charts. Corn has a mixed picture with July now below its 50 day, while December is hanging on just above its own, while both months show a solid uptrend remains in place. 

Soybeans show both July and November remaining above their 50 day averages, and both of those contracts also continue to show solid uptrends. 

Also included is a daily and weekly crude oil chart which continues to be in a solid uptrend despite today's sharp pullback. 

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 12 showed actively traded funds sold a net 44k corn contracts, taking net longs down to a still very large 300k contracts. They sold 7k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 215k, and sold 9k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 19k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn was unchanged, July beans gained 27 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 51 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 24 cents, soybeans lost 50 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 43 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.