Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/19/2026

CONTRACT	CLOSE	NET CHANGE
Sep '26 Corn	473	+9 3/4
Dec '26 Corn	498	+10
Sep '26 Beans	1222 1/4	+21 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1237 1/4	+20 1/2
Sep '26 Chi Wheat	680 1/4	+15 3/4
Sep '26 KC Wheat	762	+18 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	88.14	+2.73
Crude Oil (spot futures)	85.83	+0.89
US Dollar Index (spot futures)	98.69	-0.89
Dow Jones (spot futures)	53,558	+127

Daily Glance

All three markets moved higher together today, and it was an impressive session by about any measure. Corn pushed to its highest level since May, beans traded through yesterday's high on their way to a three week high, and wheat took back all of Tuesday's break and then some.

The crop tour is still doing most of the driving. The numbers out of Indiana and Nebraska came in on the light side, the pod counts in particular, and that has the trade rethinking how much yield is actually out there. The tour moved into Illinois and Iowa today and stays there tomorrow, and those are the states that will decide how this crop finishes.

TStorm left its ratings alone again today, corn, soybeans and winter wheat all still Neutral. The next week stays seasonable to cool across most of the belt, with a warmer pattern trying to build in a week to ten days out.

Outside markets were where the extra push came from. The Fed announced it would buy back Treasuries at twice its usual pace, which sent bonds sharply higher, lifted equities and knocked the dollar down hard. A lower dollar only added to the buying already going on in the grains.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn added 10 cents to 498, clearing the 492 to 493 resistance we flagged yesterday and posting its highest close since July. That zone turns into support now, with 500 the next hurdle and the one year high near 506 above that. Below 492 support falls back to 480, then 472 to 474, then the 50 day average near 460.

Nov beans gained 20 1/2 cents to 1237 1/4, taking out both 1222 and 1232 in a single move. That leaves 1240 as the next level of any note, with support back at 1222, then 1210 to 1212, then 1199.

Spreads: The Sep/Dec corn spread widened to 25 cents from 24 3/4 yesterday, still unable to tighten even on a day like this. The Sep/Nov bean spread came in a penny to 15 cents, old crop gaining a little ground back on new crop.

Weather: TStorm made no changes again today, leaving corn, soybeans and winter wheat all sitting at Neutral. Seasonable to cool weather works through the Corn Belt over the next week while the Plains and mid South run seasonable to warm.

The shift comes after that, with upper level high pressure trying to push north and turn a wide area considerably warmer starting in seven to ten days, especially across the Plains and western Corn Belt, and running above normal into late August and early September. Rain into tomorrow across parts of eastern Nebraska through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio looks mostly under a half inch.

One worth filing away, TStorm now figures this June through early September stretch lines up most closely with 2006, 1999 and 2010 for corn, and 2006, 1999 and 2019 for beans. Corn yields in those years came in within two bushels either side of trend and beans within a bushel and a half, which is a fair counterweight to what the tour has been turning up. They have not run the rainfall comparison yet.

Markets/Trading Implications

Yesterday's close was poor enough to have a few people questioning things, but with a day's benefit it looks a lot more like a headfake, fund managers leaning on the market to shake out whatever weak longs were in it before turning it back the other way. Today was impressive to say the least, and we would imagine there are some shorts on the ropes tonight.

A higher close tomorrow would go a long way toward confirming that the uptrend we have had for much of the year is back underway. The first reads out of Iowa came across this afternoon and they were suprisingly poor, and with the tour working through Iowa and Illinois into tomorrow, we should know a good deal more by the end of the week.

The reason these tour numbers carry so much weight is what even a small yield change does to the balance sheet. Corn demand is running better than 16 billion bushels and every bushel of yield is worth roughly 90 million bushels of supply, so a yield down around 178 pulls close to 250 million out and takes carryout toward 1.4 billion. Beans are tighter yet at 320 million, where a single bushel of yield moves 85 million, and with ethanol, biodiesel and feeding margins as good as they are, rationing that demand back with price would not come easy.

We finished the old crop yesterday and are glad to have it behind us at these levels. On new crop we are still sitting at 40 percent and in no hurry to add into a market acting like this one, particularly with September options expiring Friday and anyone short calls into this rally getting more uncomfortable by the day.

Other Notes

• Early Iowa corn results came in this afternoon at 183.7 bushels against 201 a year ago, with ear size and grain length the limiting factor. The official Iowa figure comes Friday.

• The western leg pegged the Nebraska corn yield at 163.6 bushels, down 8.8 percent from last year and 5.5 percent under the five year average, against a NASS figure of 183 back on August 1. Nebraska pod counts came in at 1,219 per three foot square, down 9.6 percent from last year but right on the five year average.

• Taken across the four states finished so far, Ohio, Indiana, Nebraska and South Dakota, the tour findings would put the US corn yield down a little better than 1.2 bushels and soybeans off nearly seven tenths. Illinois and Iowa are surveyed today and tomorrow, and those results are the ones likely to draw the biggest reaction.

• Worth noting how far out this strength reaches, November 2027 soybeans made a new contract high today.

Static Notes

• ul>li> Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 11, indicated that actively traded funds sold 15k corn, reducing their net long to 167k. They sold 24k soybeans, reducing their net long to 101k. They sold 8k wheat, increasing their net short to 31k.

• In the six market days since this report, corn gained 37 1/2 cents, beans gained 68 1/2 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 50 cents.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	100%	40%	0%
Soybeans	100%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor