Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/18/2026

CONTRACT	CLOSE	NET CHANGE
Sep '26 Corn	463 1/4	-1 3/4
Dec '26 Corn	488	-1 1/2
Sep '26 Beans	1200 3/4	-1/4
Nov '26 Beans	1216 3/4	+3/4
Sep '26 Chi Wheat	664 1/2	-10 1/4
Sep '26 KC Wheat	743 3/4	-15
Dec '26 Cotton	85.41	-.07
Crude Oil (spot futures)	84.93	+.43
US Dollar Index (spot futures)	99.54	+.01
Dow Jones (spot futures)	53,462	-82

Daily Glance

After a strong start that carried all three markets up to new swing highs, things cooled off a bit today as prices pulled back from highs to end mostly lower. Weather forecasts have turned a bit milder with more normal conditions now expected, no flash sale announcements, and some reports from the Pro Farmer tour that seemed a bit more crop friendly today...all combining to attract some selling today.

Outside markets featured lower stocks and slightly higher crude oil. Reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to any meaningful traffic, despite claims to the contrary by President Trump, keeps oil supported and stocks on the defensive.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Today's pullback from session highs was minimal and other than putting the breaks on upward momentum, didn't appear to do any real technical damage. Corn and beans both managed to stay well above yesterday's lows, but the retreat from today's highs establishes some short term resistance levels. In Dec corn we now see resistance at 492-493, then 500 and 506 (near the one year high). Support would be expected at 480, then 472 to 474, then the 50 day average near 460.

Nov beans should now see resistance at 1222, 1232 and then 1240, with support expected at 1210-1212, 1199, then 1183 to 1185, then 1178, the 50 day average.

Spreads: The Sep/Dec corn spread widened slightly to 24 3/4 cents from 24 1/2 yesterday, and continues to be unable to tighten even when corn was trading at session highs today. The Sep/Nov bean spread came in by a penny today, ending at 16 cents.

Weather: TStorm left both corn and soybeans at Neutral today, and the forecast seems mostly normal for the next two weeks with slightly above normal temps expected in the western half, along with normal precipitation.

The last 15 days have been the wettest for corn and soybeans in any August since 2007, with 15 and 16 percent of each getting at least 300 percent of normal rainfall. Going forward the expectation is a half inch to an inch and a half over the next 15 days, near to below normal, which is what finally gets the wet ground drying.

Markets/Trading Implications

Little change today for corn and beans when all was said and done. Weather conditions seem more normal, and the waiting game regarding China continues. No flash sales today, but hope remains high that China will continue its steady buying of soybeans, and possibly a dropping of the still existent 10% tariffs on US grain imports before the September 24 summit in Washington.

Crop tours will dominate the headlines this week, with the Pro Farmer tour attracting the most attention. After yesterday's findings that the Ohio and South Dakota tours indicated lower corn ear and soybean pod counts, which helped give a stronger start to prices today, the early reports from today's look at Indiana and Nebraska seemed a bit more crop friendly, hence the late selling in the market. It is generally believed that the three I states (IL, IA, and IN) will show the best yields, and those results are likely to bring on the biggest market reaction as they are released. . We will pass along anything worth passing along, but as we seem to say every year, it is our opinion that the Pro Farmer tour gets far too much attention and credit for what it actually tells us about a crop this size.

Other Notes

• p>The Black Sea region continues to be under heavy fire, and exports from that region (chiefly corn and wheat) remain very difficult. There doesn't seem to be any diplomatic end in sight, making today's pullback in wheat a little surprising, but solid recent gains remain. /p> p> /p>

• p>Funds continue to hold large net long positions in corn and beans, and were probably close to neutral in today's trading, leaving them with a bullish bias for now./p>

Static Notes

• ul> li> Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 11, indicated that actively traded funds sold 15k corn, reducing their net long to 167k. They sold 24k soybeans, reducing their net long to 101k. They sold 8k wheat, increasing their net short to 31k.

• In the market days since this report, corn gained 28 1/2 cents, beans gained 47 1/2 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 44 3/4 cents.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor