Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 5/21/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	462 1/2	-3 1/2
Corn Dec '26	485	-4 1/4
Beans July '26	1194 1/2	-5 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1186 3/4	-6 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	647 3/4	-13
Wheat-KC July '26	687	-11 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	690 1/4	-4 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	79.92	-3.04
Crude Oil June '26	97.26	-1.00
US Dollar Index	99.140	+0.125
Dow Jones	50,337	+243

Daily Glance commodity market

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Markets again opened with a weaker tone last night, but that weakness was quickly bought with corn and soybeans both trading higher by mid morning. That momentum ran out late in the day as alongside a crude pullback, each faded to again close lower on the day. Corn actually closed below its 50 day average for the second consecutive day.

Crude oil was up $2 or so at one point on doubts that a US/Iran peace deal gets done and on word out of the UAE that it will be a year before world energy flows look anything like normal. Those gains slipped away through the afternoon and crude finished modestly lower.

Solid weekly export sales numbers, including a 28 million bushel corn sale to Japan, were not enough to change the tone. Equities were firmer with the Dow up nearly 300, and the dollar was a touch higher.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Despite the mid-morning comeback, July corn faded late to close back below its 50 day moving average for the 2nd consecutive day which certainly puts Friday's low near 455 at risk. Today's high near 469 is resistance and a level bulls want to see breached again and sooner than later. Below 455 support comes in around 446 and then 435.

July soybeans' support at their 50 average of 1190 still stands, but is now slopping lower. Below there, support is near 1183, and below that at 1171 and then down towards 1140. There is a head and shoulders (bearish formation) near 1216 that bulls want to see broken through.

Spreads: The July/November inverse gained back a penny today closing at 7 1/2 with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely.

The July/Dec corn spread firmed a bit today to a 22 3/4 cent carry.

Weather: Weather conditions per TStorm ratings are Neutral for both corn and soybeans, and Slightly Favorable for wheat.

Areas of energy, an upper level system, and a decaying cold front interact to produce areas of rain in the central US through Saturday and Sunday, with totals mostly light across the northwest half of the Corn Belt and light to moderate elsewhere, which is not ideal for remaining planting after recent rains. Cool weather generally prevails through then.

A much warmer period starts Sunday into Tuesday and continues for a while, with maximums reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s and minimums in the 50s to 60s. Warmth comes from upper level high pressure in the Southeast that will draw southerly winds across a wide area and build mugginess with time.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Not a great close on the heels of yesterday's poor finish although both corn and soybeans remain well above their gaps from Sunday night. In our opinion, we remain in a bit of a tug-o-war for time being with both an improving fundamental story and and what seems to be a major improvement with China relations against suddenly vulnerable looking (short term) charts.

On the fundamental side, there are more and more opinions out there that exports should improve in both corn and beans, and that combined with positive crush margins and a likely acre cut in corn has us thinking new crop carryovers could be tight enough that any sort of weather scare really would be a big deal this summer. As for China, there continues to be more and more positive momentum behind the scenes. They have said they will start importing US beef and poultry again, Trump has publicly suggested delaying the Taiwan arms deal, the EPA announcement today on easing Biden's refrigeration restrictions is a big product antenna, and Trump has been more open about China buying US farmland. With Sunday's report that there is some sort of agreement in place for future purchases, it gives us some confidence we could and should be near normal export levels with them at a minimum.

There are some headwinds in the short term though. The crop appears to be doing just fine for the most part thus far, the funds are near record long, and the technical picture is shaky with both corn and beans back at or below their 50 day averages. A big fall in crude oil due to an Iran agreement would likely trigger another flush in the near term.

Still, we have a hard time thinking the bean market has more than 60 cents downside and the corn market more than 20 cents from here (although we realize that's no small fall, especially with those with old crop left), and we believe even if that occurred it would likely be short lived.

For now, considering our excellent cash sales to this point, we are comfortable watching to see what shakes out as we get into summer. If you are behind on sales or have questions, please reach out.

Other Notes

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Here are the updated charts for old and new corn and beans, as well at their weekly charts. Corn has a mixed picture with July now below its 50 day, while December is hanging on just above its own, while both months show a solid uptrend remains in place. 

Soybeans show both July and November remaining above their 50 day averages, and both of those contracts also continue to show solid uptrends. 

Also included is a daily and weekly crude oil chart which continues to be in a solid uptrend despite today's sharp pullback. 

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 12 showed actively traded funds sold a net 44k corn contracts, taking net longs down to a still very large 300k contracts. They sold 7k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 215k, and sold 9k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 19k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn was unchanged, July beans gained 27 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 51 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 24 cents, soybeans lost 50 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 43 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

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