Daily Commodity Market Analysis 05/27/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	452 1/2	-5
Corn Dec '26	477 1/2	-4 1/2
Beans July '26	1185 1/4	-3/4
Beans Nov '26	1181 1/2	+1 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	622 1/2	-13
Wheat-KC July '26	669 3/4	-6 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	680 3/4	-11
Cotton Dec '26	78.66	-1.13
Crude Oil June '26	89.27	-4.62
US Dollar Index	99.14	+0.04
Dow Jones	50,654	+192

Daily Glance commodity market

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More weakness in crude oil brought on by reports from the White House that a deal with Iran is close at hand. This spilled over into the corn and wheat markets, yet the soybean market managed to hang tough as soybean oil defied the crude weakness and finished with strong gains (+.90, 1.2%)

By the close, corn ended at about a six week low, and Chicago wheat at an almost three week low. Beans ended mid-range and practically unchanged. 

The MOA (Memo of Understanding) that is reportedly being worked on between Iran and the US continues to be a big unknown, not only its exact contents, but also just where the US and Iran stand in terms of any kind of agreement. Inconsistent reports circulated all day, with the White House seemingly trying to put a positive spin on it while other reports say that Iran continues to insist on what seem to be very unreasonable demands. The bottom line at this point is that no agreement has been arrived at, but it is impossible to know just how close, or far apart, the two countries are on any agreement. But optimism prevails as stocks continued to be very resilient and crude oil continues to sink, closing today below its 50 day average for the first time in over three months. 

With corn and soybeans now both below their 50 day averages and fund managers so long, similar to yesterday, the intraday bounces they both had didn't last, with more likely continuing to head for the exit doors.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn continues its slide with it now having closed under its 50 day moving average for five consecutive sessions. Today July corn took out the low from two Friday's ago (May 15) near 455, and what was seen as support is likely to now present resistance. Last week's high near 469 is further resistance and a level bulls want to see breached again and sooner than later. Support comes in around 446 and then 435.

July soybeans closed under their 50 day for the second day but did manage to recover from a peak loss of about 6 cents. Support is just below today's close near 1183 and below that at 1171 and then down towards 1140. There is a head and shoulders (bearish formation) near 1216 that bulls want to see broken through.Today's close was the second close below that head and shoulder's "neckline" as well, so a swift turnaround is likely needed or we could see them head lower towards that aforementioned 1140 level if and when the soybean oil ceases to provide support.

Spreads: The July/November inverse slipped another 2 cents today, ending at just a 3 3/4 cent inverse, with the trade seemingly not believing any nearby sales to China are likely.

The July/Dec corn spread widened a bit more to 25, a level we certainly find attractive considering the impressive run of exports.

Weather:  TStorm continues to show global corn, beans, and wheat all at Neutral today. Today's Summary forecast shows drier conditions expected for much of the corn belt which could get some attention if it goes beyond 10-14 days:

There are no changes to the T-storm Weather Outlook; computer models will vary widely more than one week out until the true setup can be resolved, but our analysis continues to suggest that most of the Corn Belt will be drier to much-drier than normal over the next 10 to 15 days (and with only mixed rainfall for dry spring wheat), leaving the latest (12Z) GFS control run too wet.

Upper-level high pressure leaves northern areas much warmer than normal over the next 7 days, while easterly winds undercut the high to leave southern areas normal to cool.

Next week, upper-level high pressure in the southern U.S. and / or a continued easterly wind flow are probable to leave humidities lower than normal across at least the Corn Belt by preventing tropical air from flowing northward. Although some enegy will pass one to two weeks out, muggy air is necessary for heavy rain, which is why it is unlikely in at least the Corn Belt over the next one to two weeks. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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Although the technicals are leaning more and more bearish, the fundamental view seemingly continues to get more friendly as we look ahead, with ending stocks likely to come down and Chinese trade progress quietly turning more constructive in the background. But given the continued silence from China regarding any recognition of their reported agreement to step up purchases of US ags, let alone any mention of a cut to their import tariffs, one has to wonder if and when this will be seen. Continued silence is already causing many to question the credibility of US insistence that these agreements were made, and the markets will need to see some tangible evidence soon to avoid more flat price erosion. 

Another problem in the meantime continues to be that funds are still carrying historically large length, and the headwinds out of crude and Iran are obviously not helpful. With corn now closing below its 50 day for several sessions running and beans joining it for the second time today, fund managers are likely to keep paring length, and the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term.

We continue to stand by our view that this is not the start of a new bear market, even if a major positive development comes out of the war. The combination of tightening balance sheets, improving Chinese demand (maybe), and still the potential of a weather setup, should ultimately put a floor under things. For now though, sellers have more control than they have had in awhile, and we would not be surprised to see another leg lower before this works itself out.

Other Notes

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• Yesterday's Crop Condition report indicated that US corn planting is now 86% complete, and soybeans at 79%. The condition of the winter wheat crop continued to slide, down another 2% to 24%, the lowest rating in over 41 years. The Poor/Very Poor conditions are at an alarmingly high 44%. Yet wheat suffered double digit losses today...

  
  

• Here are the updated daily (old crop and new crop) and weekly corn and soybean charts, along with a daily and weekly crude oil chart. 

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 19 showed actively traded funds bought a net 14k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 314k contracts. They sold 7k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 208k, and sold 6k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 25k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 5 cents, July beans lost 28 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 12 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 12 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 21 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.