Daily Market Analysis -- May 4th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	485 3/4	+5 1/2
Corn Dec '26	504 1/2	+5 3/4
Beans July '26	1222 3/4	+19 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1196 3/4	+14
Wheat-Chi July '26	641	+3 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	694 1/2	unchanged
Wheat-MN July '26	699	-5
Cotton Dec '26	83.60	-.88
Crude Oil June '26	105.23	+3.29
US Dollar Index	98.29	+0.28
Dow Jones	48928	-572

Daily Glance

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The rally continued as crude oil continued its climb, war uncertainty remains high, China meeting in 10 days, and more aggressive fund buying all added to bullish enthusiasm.

Not a lot of actual grain fundamental news, but the above factors continue to add to positive sentiment. Export inspections were excellent for corn, 80 million bushels, and were a little soft for soybeans at 16 million. 

By the close, July corn posted its best settlement since April of 2025, July beans closed at their best level in seven weeks, and new crop corn and soybeans both closed at their best levels in over ten years. 

Outside markets featured strong crude oil, with front month June currently trading just $1.60 lower than its best close (last week), and a lower stock market. The long term Treasury Bond ended sharply lower, reflecting higher long term interest rates, which firmed the Dollar Index. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn made another fresh high today clearing the resistance at 482 that we mentioned in Friday's letter. We see next resistance at the  previous peaks near 4.88 -4.92 and then at 4.98-5.00   Support should be seen at 481-483 and remains below at 472 and 465.

July soybeans had their first close above $12.00 in six plus weeks on Friday, and today hit their best level since March 16. Resistance is now seen near 1227-1230 and then 1260.  We now see support at 1214-1218 and 1190-1195.

Spreads: The July/November inverse added another 5 1/2 cents today to close at 26 cents. Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread continues to be rangebound between an 18-21 cent carry, ending at 18 3/4. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes.

Weather: TStorm left their corn, soybean, and wheat ratings unchanged today.

Rainfall amounts are increased for most of HRW wheat . Here are today's closing weather comments:

A strong cold front leaves the Corn Belt, mid-South, and eastern Plains cooler to much-cooler than normal over the next 7 days. The Plains will be closer to normal over the period, but with a frost and freeze on HRW wheat in the central and northern Plains Wed. and / or Thu. mornings as minimums fall to 26F to 32F in and near CO and western KS. A warmer period gradually starts Sun.-Wed. (May 10-13) as cool air most likely diminishes; warmest weather in the Plains.

Rain (and some snow) is likely through Wednesday as a system produces substantial rain in much of CO, western KS, and southwestern NE (with lighter totals elsewhere in the central Plains).  

T-storms focus on the southeast third of corn and soybeans into mid-week as a cold front passes. Some additional rain follows for the southern half of corn and soybeans this weekend or early next week as another system passes. Some rain affects the same areas next week in a warmer period, but likely absent heavy totals. Drying probably continues from the northern Plains through the northern Corn Belt over the next 10 to 14 days.

Markets/Trading Implications

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One has to be impressed with this ongoing strength in soybeans and especially corn. July corn has now closed higher in 9 of the last 11 days and July beans in 5 of the last 7, with both poking into new recent high territory. 

As we discussed in the Sell Recommendation email sent earlier today, there are several factors contributing to this ongoing strength, including the funds' unrelenting buying (now record long in the aggregate ags space and record long in the soybean complex), war jitters and their bullish effect on crude oil, optimism regarding the May 14-15 summit in Beijing, and perhaps some pricing in of further erosion in the US Dollar's purchasing power as it appears government spending isn't slowing down from its dizzying pace. 

We mentioned in Friday's letter that some sell recommendations could come this week, and with this morning's strength we felt compelled to follow through and take some risk off the table in both corn and soybeans and for both old and new crop. See this morning's email for more on those sales. The war situation certainly adds a whole additional element of risk and uncertainty to the task of grain marketing, and while we have been very patient in advancing sales, and rewarded for doing so, we continue to feel that taking small conservative steps going forward is the best approach for now. 

Other Notes

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• The war situation appears to be intensifying with reports today of Iran attacking US warships and then the US returning fire and hitting numerous small attack boats as the battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz continues. In addition, Iran has launched major missile attacks on the UAE and other countries in the area. 

• Planting progress continues at a fast clip in the week ended Sunday (although undoubtedly slowing down this week) with corn now 38% planted, up 13% from last week, and soybeans 33% planted, up 10%. The 5 year average pace for corn is 34% and 23% for soybeans. 

• Crop conditions pegged the corn crop at 66% good/excellent, unchanged from last week, and soybeans at 62%, gaining 1% from last week. 

  
  

Please note the updated % sold summary in the box below. 

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 28 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 264k. They sold 8k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 186k, and bought 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net long position of roughly 13k contracts after being net short the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 13 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat gained 44 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained another 4 cents, soybeans gained 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gave back 20 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.