Daily Market Analysis May 1st 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	480 1/4	+5 1/2
Corn Dec '26	498 3/4	+4 1/2
Beans July '26	1203 1/4	+7 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1182 3/4	+9 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	637 3/4	+1
Wheat-KC July '26	694 1/2	+1
Wheat-MN July '26	704	-1 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	84.56	+1.69
Crude Oil June '26	102.37	-2.70
US Dollar Index	98.060	+0.110
Dow Jones	49,651	-184

Daily Glance

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A nice finish to a volatile week, with corn, beans, and wheat all posting solid gains and putting the finishing touches on a week that more than lived up to the post May option expiration volatility we had flagged last Friday.

December corn peaked its head above $5.00 for the first time since December of 2023 before backing off a tad late, and July beans posted their first daily close above the upper end of the six week range we have been working with. As always, follow through will be key, but it was an encouraging way to end the week.

Crude oil chopped around but finished modestly lower as the back and forth headlines on the Iran front continue to drive the day to day moves, even as the Strait remains closed and Trump shows no signs of backing down. Despite the daily noise, the broader macro backdrop and the supply disruption already in place have been a quiet but consistent tailwind for our markets.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn made a fresh high today after bouncing off our support level yesterday morning near 472.  We had been mentioning 482 as resistance and that held today as well, closed 2 cents below. Support remains below at 472 and 465 while resistance is at 482 and 495.

July soybeans had their first close above $12.00 in six plus weeks today. Resistance is above now near 1220 and then 1260.  We now see support at 1190-1195, 1170, and 1155.

Spreads: The July/November inverse sild to 18 today, the tightest its been in months,  before firming and closing at 20 3/4.  Beijing will likely be the key catalyst for that spread, one way or another. Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread continues to be rangebound between an 18-21 cent carry, but really firmed late in the week to close at 18 3/4 after touching 21 mid-week. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes.

Weather: TStorm left their corn, soybean, and wheat ratings unchanged today.

Rainfall amounts are increased for HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains next week. Cool weather affects the Corn Belt and mid-South over the next 10 days, driven by a strong cold front Monday through Wednesday. The cold front focuses rain and t-storms on the southeast half of the Corn Belt and mid-South Monday through Thursday, but with little to none from the northern Plains through the northwest Corn Belt as dry air lingers.

The main uncertainty is that a wave of energy trails the cold front Monday through Wednesday, which is typically a good way for some rain to affect HRW wheat. Another system probably follows for HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains a few days later, with the end result being increased amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" over the next 10 days, while keeping amounts around 0.50" to 1.50" in CO. A milder period probably follows for the central US 10 to 14 days out, which should maintain some rain chances in some areas, but the exact setup is unclear and rains will eventually be needed from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt.

Markets/Trading Implications

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After we called yesterday a bit disappointing on the bean side given the reversal off the highs, today went a long way toward making up for that with the first daily close above the upper end of the six week range. Now the focus shifts to whether we can get the follow through, and the July/November spread will be the cleanest tell as we approach the mid May meeting with China. The spread traded down to an 18 cent inverse today, the tightest its been in months, before firming a bit into the close, telling you the trade is not buying that China commits to additional old crop business given how much cheaper Brazilian beans are. We would need to see that picture change in order to clear and hold above the $12.20 area.

The crush story remains a key piece of the bean puzzle as well. Margins were exceptional for most of this run up in bean oil, but they are tightening a bit, and bean oil is now within a couple dollars of long term resistance at the 2022 highs and the area where funds had their longest ever position before this current run. We would have to think you need a story to develop in meal to keep beans pressing higher from here.

On the corn side, the action continues to impress, and December peeking above $5.00 today was a notable accomplishment given that level has not been touched since December of 2023. That said, it likely needs a fresh catalyst to take out the $4.90 to $5.00 area in spot corn in any meaningful way, whether that comes from an escalation in the dryness in South America, a domestic weather story, or something out of the energy markets.

We may look to advance cash sales on strength next week, but also want to be patient to see how this all plays out, as one or more of the topics above could go a long way in supporting prices. In terms of downside potential, there is certainly plenty with us at nearby highs, but similar to when we were at our nearby lows in the past six weeks, we have a hard time thinking the market can get much below those given everything going on in the world at the moment. Markets in general, not just ours, seem to be coiling a bit, and our guess is volatility will likely only pick up into the latter half of the year.

Other Notes

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For the week, July corn closed up 16 3/4, December corn closed up 14 1/2, July beans up 25, November beans up 27, July wheat up 21, and December cotton up 3.98.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 28 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 264k. They sold 8k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 186k, and bought 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net long position of roughly 13k contracts after being net short the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 13 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat gained 44 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained another 4 cents, soybeans gained 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gave back 20 cents.

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	70%	35%	0%
Soybeans	80%	35%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.