Daily Market Analysis -- April 30th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	474 3/4	-3
Corn Dec '26	494 1/4	-3 1/2
Beans July '26	1195 1/2	-1 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1173	+1 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	636 3/4	-16 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	693 3/4	-11 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	705 3/4	-9 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	82.95	+2.49
Crude Oil June '26	105.53	-1.35
US Dollar Index	97.930	-0.905
Dow Jones	49,873	+861

Daily Glance

---

A wild session that started with a strong overnight rally faded as the day wore on, with corn and beans both giving back early gains to finish slightly lower. July beans traded as high as last week's high before the buying ran out of steam, and new crop corn and beans both posted new multi month highs before reversing.

The reversal lower was led by crude oil, which gave back roughly $7 from its overnight high near $110 before rallying late in the day. Iran has been talking a big game about defending their nuclear program at all costs, but reports throughout the day suggested some backtracking, and that softer tone took the wind out of the energy rally for most of the session.

It was also month end, and with folks perhaps eyeing a breakout to add length in beans, it was almost too easy for funds to shed some longs at new highs. December corn snapped its impressive run of 8 consecutive higher closes, and wheat was hit hard again for the second straight day.

There were also rumors today that representatives from China and the US have been meeting in preparation for the Xi/Trump summit in mid May. With bears starting to get louder that the meeting may not happen at all, that's a constructive signal worth keeping an eye on.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn made a higher high for the fifth consecutive session, but failed hold those gains, closing lower. It bounced right off of our aforementioned support near 472 and closed both above there and its 5 day moving average (for the 12th consecutive session). Support remains below at 472 and 465 while resistance is at 482 and 495.

July soybeans remain in the 1150-1200 range (on a closing basis) they been trading in for the last 6 weeks, but again rejected the 1200 area as it closed below once again. Next test will be if they can trade and settle above the high of that range which is 1201, and then should see resistance at around 1220. We now see support at 1183, 1170, and 1155.

Spreads: The July/November inverse continues to chop between about 28 and 20, closing at 23 1/2 today.  Beijing will likely be the key catalyst for that spread, one way or another. Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread continues to be rangebound between 18-21 cents, but did rally sharply later in the day today to close at 19 after touching 21 early in the session. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes.

Weather: TStorm left their corn, soybean, and wheat ratings unchanged today, all at Neutral.

Some showers continue in the central and southern Plains through tomorrow, but with organized rain likely limited to interior TX (and then the southern mid-South Fri.-Sat.). A large cold front sweeps across the central U.S. Tue.-Wed. with t-storms across the southeast half of the Corn Belt and mid-South, but missing the northwest half of the central U.S. where drying generally continues. That said, a small wave likely trails the cold front Tue.-Wed. with some rain for HRW wheat in / near CO-KS-NE, but the setup will take a few days to resolve.

Temperatures will be much cooler than normal in the Corn Belt and mid-South over the next 10 days, while fluctuating temperatures in the Plains leave temperatures close to normal (slightly cool east, slightly warm west). Some energy probably flows by in a milder period that starts in 10 to 15 days with some rain, but the setup is unclear and with best chances within the southern half of the central U.S. 

Markets/Trading Implications

---

Today was a bit disappointing on the bean side, especially considering July beans posted their first close above 1195 yesterday, a level we have been eying as a possible hint that a true breakout of the recent range could be near. To get reversed off the highs and finish basically unchanged on the day takes some of the air out of that.

The component of the bean story not being talked about enough is the crush and what is going on with bean oil. Bean oil is now reaching an area where both the highs from 2022 sit AND where the funds had their longest ever position, and our guess is both should bring ample resistance, especially with crush margins shrinking. If and when bean oil were to correct, we would need to see legs to the meal story regarding the EU quality issue we talked about on Monday for beans to keep their footing.

The China headlines today were a positive on the margin. Bears have been getting louder that the Xi/Trump meeting in mid May may not even happen, so any reports of representatives meeting ahead of time are a step in the right direction. Eyes will be firmly on the July/November spread as the cleanest indicator on how likely the trade thinks positive news is, or how likely they think any nearby export business actually shows up.

On the corn side, the snapping of the 9 day higher close streak in December is no real surprise given how extended things had become. Higher highs are never a bad thing, but considering the reversal today, more short term weakness may be in the cards. The bigger picture remains constructive with the funds defending their length, the Safrinha story still in play (although weakening a bit this week), and the macro support from crude. We would not be chasing this higher on rallies but are comfortable hanging tight at current sale levels and letting this run of strength play out.

As we said on the voiceblast though, this is a great spot for catch up sales for those behind.

Other Notes

---

Static Notes

---

The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 21 showed actively traded funds sold a bought 25k corn contracts, increasing net longs to 184k. They bought 18k soybeans, taking longs bac up to 194k, and sold 3k Chicago wheat, leaving them net short roughly 8k contracts.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 9 cents, beans gained 17 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 12 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 2 more cents, soybeans gave back 13 cents, and Chicago wheat gained another 4 cents

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	70%	35%	0%
Soybeans	80%	35%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.