Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 5/14/26

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	467 1/2	-13 1/2
Corn Dec '26	491 1/4	-11 3/4
Beans July '26	1192 1/2	-36 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1183 1/2	-24 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	658	-17 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	705 1/2	-19 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	702 1/2	-17 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	84.62	-1.84
Crude Oil June '26	102.02	+1.00
US Dollar Index	98.775	+0.350
Dow Jones	50,154	+362

Daily Glance commodity market

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Disappointing day certainly with soybeans really taking it on the chin, dropping nearly 30 cents overnight following the initial meeting in Beijing. There was some follow through selling at the start of the day session, but they did recover nicely late, closing 12 cents off their intraday low in July and erasing most of the day session losses on the way to closing back above the 50 day moving average.

As for the meeting itself, early reports indicated the conversation between Trump and Xi was more big picture in nature, focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan, and the NVIDIA situation rather than specifics around US ag purchases. To make matters worse, Treasury Secretary Bessent held a midday press conference and noted that soybeans were not brought up because they are "already taken care of," a reference to the vague pledge made between the two countries months ago. Those comments are what sent beans down to fresh session lows and reinforced concerns that nearby Chinese buying isn't likely.

Rumors surfaced later in the day that both sides had agreed to reduce tariffs by 10%, which would be a step in the right direction, though no formal announcement was made. Brazilian beans continue to trade significantly cheaper than US origin into the world market.

Crude was a sideshow today, finishing modestly higher and back above $100 even with both Trump and Xi indicating the Strait of Hormuz must reopen. Equity markets seemed to like the update with markets again making new highs including new all time highs in Nvidia (which is majorly impacted by a good relationship with China).

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: We had been talking about how this recent move in corn looked shaky and boy was that true with it giving up nearly all of its gains since last Thursday's reversal higher, today including closing back below its 50 day moving average for the first time in a month. 472 didn't offer much support which now targets between 455 and 460 next. Yesterday's high near 484 is resistance.

July soybeans firmed enough late to close back above its 50 day moving average, but is sitting back within its range that it traded in for most of March and April. Resistance is now above near 1204 while support is near 1170 and then 1150.  Spreads: The July/November inverse got hit hard as soon as there was a realization that it was unlikely there would be any nearby soybean purchases. The inverse narrowed to just 8 3/4 cents today which is the tightest its been since January. With the soybean carryover near 300, its going to take a crop scare or, again, Chinese purchases to move that needle again.

The July/Dec corn spread widened as well getting to a 24 cent carry before firming late to close at 23 1/4...its widest in the lift of the spread. Considering the export program, we have been thinking it had limited "downside" past 21 cents although its been able to creep past that as of late.

Weather: TStorm has soybeans Slightly Favorable, wheat Slightly Favorable, and corn Neutral, all unchanged from yesterday. Very warm weather in the Plains overtakes the rest of the central US today and tomorrow, triggering isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the central Plains and Corn Belt Friday and Saturday. A large cold front then causes temperatures to plummet Sunday and Monday in the northern Plains and Tuesday and Wednesday elsewhere, accompanied by areas of rain and thunderstorms that improve soil moisture in the drying Corn Belt and northern Plains but slow planting. Around five days of coolness follow the exit of rain, including frost in or near the northern Plains Monday and Tuesday. Most areas will probably be dry for several days later next week, most likely followed by a typical setup with the main storm track in the central US and some tropical air flowing northward. Near-normal rainfall is most probable, but with some potential for above-normal totals from OK-TX through the mid-South.

Markets/Trading Implications

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While we felt the market was vulnerable at these levels, hence our sale recommendations near this week's highs, the extent of the selling did catch us a bit off guard considering there is still an entire day of meetings ahead between Trump and Xi, and not a single tweet from the President to react to yet. We mentioned the last couple of days that any positive news from the meeting would likely be a fade, but we didn't even get that with the market trading lower from the get go last night. The Bessent comments were particularly concerning, as they hint that any meaningful nearby Chinese soybean business may not be in the cards.

Given the strength of the move, our guess is any correction higher gets sold for the time being. That said, as we've been saying for some time now, it's hard to think the market can get too far below last week's lows in corn or below the April low in soybeans. Both areas should act as meaningful support, especially with funds still carrying length, a large chunk from below today's lows, and a full day of headline risk still ahead Friday.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 5 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to a massive 344k. They bought 36kk soybeans, bringing net longs up to 222k, and sold 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net short position of roughly 8k contracts after being net not the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 4 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 9 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 9 cents.

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

commodity market

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