Daily Commodity Market Analysis 5/13/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	480 3/4	+3/4
Corn Dec '26	503	+1
Beans July '26	1229	+2 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1207 3/4	+2 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	675 1/2	-3 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	724 3/4	-6 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	719 3/4	-4 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	86.65	+0.37
Crude Oil June '26	101.24	-0.94
US Dollar Index	98.375	+0.185
Dow Jones	49,903	+34

Daily Glance comCommomodity market

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Follow through buying carried over from yesterday's WASDE driven move, with beans and corn pushing within striking distance of early March highs while wheat made a new high last night before backing off this morning where it eventually closed modestly lower. 

Rumors surfaced around midday that the Trump/Xi meeting in Beijing this week would focus on general stability rather than specific trade arrangements or major deal announcements. Beans gave back roughly a dime on the news before stabilizing into the close.

Crude made a new high for this recent move early, but reversed mid-day to close lower. Chatter around the war remains fairly quiet for the time being, likely with Trump headed to China. Speaking of China, the Cargill CEO and a slew of other corporate names were confirmed to be traveling to Beijing alongside Trump, with the official itinerary posted this morning.

Key Points/Developments: commodity market

Technicals: Corn continues to look a tad hesitant, but it again closed a new high for this recent move and still above our pivot of 472.  That level would now be expected to offers some support, as well as last weeks low near 462.Resistance remains at 482 (yesterday's high), 488-490.

July soybeans made a fresh multi-month high today before again backing off a bit late.  We see support at 1204, 1190, and 1170. Resistance is at 1240 and 1250. 

Spreads: The July/November inverse had a quiet day closing down 1/2 cent at 21 1/4. Bulls want to see that inverse more than 17 to possibly reach 35 or higher.

The July/Dec corn carry had a quiet day as well closing down 1/4 cent at 22. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes, and feel this is a low risk entry for a bull spread. 

Weather: TStorm downgraded both corn and soybeans to Neutral on dry US planting conditions over the next several days, while winter wheat held its Slightly Favorable rating. Very warm weather across the central and west contrasts with coolness in the east through Thursday and Friday, before warm air envelops eastern areas Friday and Saturday and triggers scattered storms from the central Plains through the southern half of the Corn Belt. A major system and cold front approach the Plains Sunday and Monday and exit via the Corn Belt Tuesday and Wednesday, slowing planting from northwest to southeast as temperatures turn sharply cooler but stabilizing developing dryness. More rain will probably be needed for spring wheat given unusual dryness over the last 14 and 30 days.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Today showed just how sensitive the trade is to any sort of negative news coming out of Beijing later this week. A single headline suggesting the meeting would be more big picture than transactional was enough to pull beans 10 cents off the highs in a hurry. That said, we have a hard time thinking the market pulls back too aggressively until some kind of confirmation comes through, especially with some of the recent shorts likely still feeling a bit stuck after trying to hedge ahead of yesterday's report.

For beans, we'd prefer to see today's day session low near 1224 hold to feel good about a run toward 1250, though admittedly that doesn't leave much wiggle room below.

Corn in our eyes remains the most sensitive to a pullback. Yesterday's report did not deliver any real bullish surprise on the corn side and a bit of bearish divergence is starting to build relative to wheat and beans. With Trump in Beijing through Friday and the bulk of the meeting's tone yet to be revealed, expect quieter action ahead of any concrete headlines.

We continue think, however, that if there is a sharp move higher from here, its likely a fade for the time being.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 5 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to a massive 344k. They bought 36kk soybeans, bringing net longs up to 222k, and sold 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net short position of roughly 8k contracts after being net not the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 4 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 9 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 9 cents.

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.