Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 5-12-2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	480	+4 3/4
Corn Dec '26	502	+4 1/4
Beans July '26	1226 3/4	+13 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1205	+10 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	679	+45
Wheat-KC July '26	731 1/4	+45
Wheat-MN July '26	724	+37 1/2
Cotton Dec '26	86.11	-1.29
Crude Oil June '26	102.32	+4.25
US Dollar Index	98.175	+0.375
Dow Jones	49,854	+62

Daily Glance co

mmodity market

Wheat stole the show today, with Chicago and KC both closing limit up on a USDA Supply and Demand report that pegged ending stocks well below trade expectations. The abandonment rate for winter wheat came in at a sizable 32%, which drove a significant cut in projected ending stocks and gave the funds plenty to chew on. 

Corn rode the wheat tailwind to a higher close even though the report itself was a bit of a mixed bag. New crop carryover came in just under 2 billion bushels, but production raises in both Argentina and Brazil took some of the wind out of the bulls' sails on the shortened Safrinha story.

Beans were a bullish surprise in their own right. New crop carryover was pegged at 310 million, well below the average trade guess of 360, with the cut driven in large part by an even larger than expected rise in crush.

Crude oil continued to firm up following yesterday's Trump tweet, ending more than $4 higher and adding another layer of support across the board. Funds came into the report protecting length, and the baseline new crop balance sheets look friendly enough that they will likely keep doing so. Attention now shifts to the Beijing summit Thursday and Friday. commodity market

 commodity market

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Corn looked hesitant early, but again closed at a new high for this recent move and still above our pivot of 472.  That level would now be expected to offers some support, as well as last weeks low near 462. Resistance remains at 482 (the high today actually), 488-490.

July soybeans traded and closed above last weeks high meaning it had its highest close since early March.  We see support at 1204, 1190, and 1170. Resistance is at 1240 and 1250. 

Spreads: The July/November saw some early strength again, reaching 22 3/4, before fading a bit to close at 21 1/2. Bulls want to see that inverse more than 17 to possible reach 35 or higher.

The July/Dec corn spread tightened early, but backed off late closing at 22 1/4. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes, and feel this is a low risk entry for a bull spread. 

Weather: TStorm left ratings unchanged, with corn and soybeans Slightly Favorable and winter wheat Favorable.

Rain chances increase Sunday through Tuesday for spring and winter wheat in the northern Plains, though confidence remains low to moderate. Very warm weather in the Plains continues to contrast with cool conditions in the eastern Corn Belt for several more days. A large system and cold front approaches Friday through Sunday, triggering scattered thunderstorms across much of the central US Saturday through Tuesday, with best totals expected in the eastern Plains and Corn Belt. Rain is badly needed in spring wheat country, where 100% and 94% of expected production has been drier than normal over the last 14 and 30 days. One to two weeks out, tropical air looks to meet up with energy in the central US to set up additional rain chances, particularly in the central and southern Plains and Corn Belt.

Markets/Trading Implications

Wheat's complexion has changed in a real way. Balance sheets are suddenly tightening and with funds slightly short SRW last week, they have room to go certainly on the long side if they'd like. T-Storm has been flagging the deteriorating winter wheat conditions for weeks now, so the production cut itself was not much of a surprise to us, even if the magnitude got the funds' attention.

Corn is a tougher read. We would lean modestly bearish on the update as a whole given the South American production raises, but with new crop carryover listed under 2 billion bushels, funds are likely to hold on to their longs in case the war escalates, crude continues to rally, or any kind of domestic crop issue develops. That backdrop should keep meaningful breaks well supported, and our guess is anything back toward last week's lows gets bought.

The bean new crop ending stock number was the friendliest piece of the report outside of the wheat cut, and fund managers will likely continue to defend their length on any major pullbacks from here with a carryover near 300 and perhaps smaller with a jump in exports (if China actually buys what is rumored) and/or a crop issue. As always though, a hiccup geopolitically or any other topic that could possibly be tweeted, is always a possibility thus we certainly wouldn't chase this rally higher.

Recent history has shown that the soybean market tends to rally into US/China meetings only to fade once they're over, even when friendly news comes out. We would expect that trend to hold this week and into next, outside of something outlandish like major old crop purchases from China, which seems unlikely given their lack of need and how expensive US beans are relative to Brazil. For anyone who missed our sale recommendations last week, we are back at or near those levels and would be looking to take advantage.

Other Notes

• Here is a summary of the changes in today's report.

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Static Notes

• The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 5 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to a massive 344k. They bought 36kk soybeans, bringing net longs up to 222k, and sold 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net short position of roughly 8k contracts after being net not the prior week.

  
  
  
  

  In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 4 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 9 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 9 cents.

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.