Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/16/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	441 1/2	-6
Dec '26 Corn	464	-5 1/2
Aug '26 Beans	1195	-7 1/4
Nov '26 Beans	1195	-6 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	674 3/4	-2 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	716 1/2	-3 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	79.23	-2.32
Aug '26 Crude Oil	78.87	-0.73
US Dollar Index	100.56	+0.21
Dow Jones	52,749	-151

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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It was a disappointing day across the board, one that reversed the breakout we were watching yesterday. Wheat led the overnight strength, running to just shy of its old contract high before giving almost all of it back, and corn followed a similar arc, clearing the resistance we had flagged for a fresh high early only to fade the rest of the session. A weak export sales report for corn and wheat played a part, but our guess is it was more a mix of things, funds not eager to chase the rally further and the weather still not scary enough to keep a real risk premium in the market.

Beans were not spared either, even though soybean demand news actually held up fine today, export sales firmed from the prior week and a good chunk of the new crop business is reportedly China. That the market could not hold gains on genuinely decent news is about as clean a sign as we have seen that this kind of buying is already priced in, buy the rumor, sell the fact, as the saying goes.

Weather stayed more of a backdrop than a headline. TStorm left its outlook unchanged again today, still neutral on corn, beans, and winter wheat, though the midday model run did trend a touch drier for the Corn Belt into the back half of July. Nothing alarming yet, but worth watching given how little room these carryovers leave for a real yield hit.

Outside markets leaned the same soft direction today, crude and equities both a touch weaker and the dollar a bit firmer, cotton the hardest hit of the bunch. None of that is a screaming signal on its own, but it fits the more cautious mood we saw across our own markets as well.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn cleared the 471 resistance we had been watching, tagged a fresh high near 474, then reversed hard and settled back at 464, right on the 465 (50 day average) support underneath. The failed breakout puts the low 450s back in view if the selling continues, first 457, then 447.

Nov beans could not manage the same early push, slipping back under the 1197 to 1200 resistance to settle right around 1195, essentially on top of the 1194 support. A break under that opens 1185, then the 1170 to 1174 zone underneath.

Weather: TStorm left its ratings unchanged again today, corn, soybeans, and winter wheat all still neutral. Their overall read on the setup remains that this forecast is not threatening enough yet to put a real dent in yield potential, even with the dry stretch out west. Midday models did trend a touch drier through July 27 across the central belt, with a cooler stretch next week before warmth builds back in late in the month, and they are still calling for some rain in the eastern Corn Belt into early next week.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Corn's failure to hold its new high is the one we would focus on. Our guess is some of the fund length that has built up got nervous at resistance rather than this being a change in the bigger picture, though one poor close does not prove that either way. It argues for some patience before assuming this rally has more room right away.

Beans are the one that actually stands out more to us today. Export demand was not the problem there, sales picked up and China was a good part of it, yet the market still could not hold gains. That tells us this buying is priced in enough that we would not chase beans on demand headlines alone right now.

For marketing, this does not change anything for us today. We are comfortable holding our 40% recommendation on new crop corn and soybeans, and would rather see how this technical test resolves, and watch whether the weather models keep drifting drier, before doing anything different. Every situation is a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

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• Export sales for the week ending July 9 were a letdown, corn and wheat both light compared to the prior week, even as soybean sales stayed solid with a big chunk going to China. Marketing year to date, corn sales are still running well ahead of last year while wheat is behind.

• Input costs keep climbing in the background too, with Gulf urea prices up more than 20 dollars a ton since the start of July.

Static Notes

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The most recent Commitment of Traders report, covering positions through Tuesday, July 7, showed funds as big buyers across the board. They bought a net 59k corn contracts, flipping to net long 13k, bought a net 37k soybeans to push longs to 69k, and bought 7k Chicago wheat, trimming shorts to 62k. The next update, covering through July 14, is out Friday.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

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