Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/24/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	464	+2
Dec '26 Corn	487 1/2	+2 3/4
Aug '26 Beans	1237 1/2	+4 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1243 3/4	+4 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	696 1/4	-9 1/2
Sept '26 KC Wheat	759 3/4	-3 3/4
Dec '26 Cotton	81.29	+0.18
Aug '26 Crude Oil	91.78	+5.30
US Dollar Index	101.29	+0.35
Dow Jones	51,845	-627

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Corn and beans both opened firm and stayed bid for most the session including November beans indeed taking out the 2022 contract high and corn making a new high for the move. Some selling did take place late in the day after hitting the long term resistance levels we have been flagging, but it was another strong performance nonetheless. Chicago wheat made a new high as well, but couldn't keep up, eventually closing lower on the day.  August options expire tomorrow, which can add some extra noise to the tape heading into the weekend.

Weather continues to lead the charge with T-Storm downgrading corn to unfavorable today, joining beans in that category. The mid-day runs leaned drier as well. 

On the war front, reports emerged that Trump is considering a massive attack on Iran that would include civilian infrastructure, with Israel potentially joining if asked, and that helped push crude to fresh highs for the move as well.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn tagged a fresh high for the move, testing back toward resistance in the low 490s, before weakening a bit into the close. That keeps 492, then the spring high near 500 as the next targets up top, while support now sits in that low 480s area we cleared yesterday, then the 468 to 470 gap, then 457.

Nov beans took out the 2022 contract high, pushing on toward the 2024 high near 1257 we flagged yesterday, before reversing hard to settle at 1243 3/4. That old 2022 high near 1241 becomes the first support to watch, then the 1231 zone, the 1204 to 1210 gap, and then around 1190.

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread widened a bit to 23 1/2 cents, from 22 3/4 yesterday. The Aug/Nov bean spread held essentially steady at 6 1/4 cents, barely changed from 6 yesterday.

Weather: TStorm downgraded corn to Unfavorable today, dropping it a notch from Slightly Unfavorable and putting it in the same category as soybeans, while winter wheat stayed Neutral. Their main uncertainty now is the intensity and duration of the coming heat and whether any thunderstorms actually materialize, and the midday runs have trended drier again. The Plains and western Corn Belt are in line for a serious hot stretch starting tomorrow and lasting into next week, with highs reaching the 100s in parts of Nebraska, North and South Dakota by the weekend, and only limited rain chances before a cool front eases things around the end of the month.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

A bit of profit taking at long term resistance levels makes us think we could see some more weakness tomorrow, but the bigger picture remains that our markets continue to chug on with higher highs across the board. August options expire tomorrow, which could make an impact in soybeans, especially with 1230 marking a big spot in terms of open interest at that strike. We have to imagine, however, that a dip towards that level and 480 in December corn, get bought for the time being considering the forecast.

If you missed our old crop sales rec yesterday, you have a chance to do so at higher prices today and would encourage that given the complexity and risk in a weather market. The real test comes this weekend, Sunday's forecast update in particular, which could move this market big in either direction by Monday. Every situation is a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

---

• Export sales for the week ending July 16 were solid across the board, corn near 40.7 million bushels combined old and new crop, soybeans around 58.6 million, and wheat at 10.7 million. For the marketing year, corn sales are running roughly 650 million bushels ahead of last year, soybeans about 345 million behind, and wheat around 85 million behind.

• Fund buying kept showing up in Wednesday's open interest numbers too, with corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat all posting solid gains alongside similar moves in the soy products. It looks like the money that left this market in June is still finding its way back in.

• Ukraine's port and vessel situation keeps deteriorating, with shippers now pushing back on loading cargoes there at all given how frequent the attacks have become, and Russia adding new restrictions of its own on vessel movement at one of its main export points. Black Sea grain is moving at a fraction of the pace it normally would this time of year.

Static Notes

---

The Commitment of Traders report released today, covering positions through Tuesday, July 14, showed funds adding to their bullish bets across the board. Corn's net long jumped to 43k contracts, up about 31k on the week, soybeans' net long grew to 73k, up a more modest 4k, and wheat saw the biggest shift, funds trimming their net short from 62k down to 37k, a 25k swing. What stands out to us is the price action underneath those numbers, corn and beans were actually lower over the reporting week itself, corn down 4 cents and beans down 7, yet funds were net buyers into that weakness, while wheat was the opposite, already up 26 cents over the same stretch as the short covering accelerated. All three then kept climbing into the back half of the week, corn up 7 more, beans up 12, and wheat another 38, which tells us the buying likely did not stop at Tuesday's cutoff.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.