Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/21/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	452 3/4	+3 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	475 1/4	+2 1/4
Aug '26 Beans	1219 1/2	-6 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1222 3/4	-3 1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	678	+4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	733	+9 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	80.42	+1.50
Aug '26 Crude Oil	84.65	+2.17
US Dollar Index	101.01	+.23
Dow Jones	52,450	+377

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets started higher across the board on follow through from yesterday's strength and supported by more war worries (both Ukraine/Russia and Iran), hot and dry forecasts, and optimism regarding Chinese demand. 

Soybeans faltered on midday forecasts that appeared a bit more moderate than what we've been seeing (see weather discussion below) and weaker soybean oil. 

By the close, both corn and soybeans maintained their open gaps set yesterday while corn pushed up to a new seven week high, finishing close to that, and beans stayed within yesterday's range. Wheat dropped to a four day low before reversing higher in late trade.. 

Much talk about the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine as well, with Black Sea transit routes and ports continuing to suffer damage. 

Outside markets saw stronger crude oil, ending at a six week high, higher equities, and a stronger Dollar Index.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The technical picture for corn continued to strengthen with Dec corn creeping into another seven week high and closing only slightly off that peak. The next target is the low 480s, then 490 and the spring high near 500, while support underneath now sits at 468-470 (the gap created on Sunday night's open), then 457 and 447.

Nov beans had an "inside day" today, leaving the next resistance at recent highs around 1231-1232, then 1250. Support should be seen at the gap from 1204-1210, then 1188-1190, and the 50 day average at 1173. November beans' high today, 1230 1/4, is the highest a November bean contract has traded in the last three years. Interestingly, the contract high in 2022 was 1241.  

Weather: Lots of mixed opinions on the effect the ongoing hot/dry conditions in the western belt is having on yields. There is a lot of skepticism that yields are suffering considering how resilient crops have been over the last several years, but the heat and dryness in western states has certainly been extreme. The forecast is for more of the same, although a bit less extreme than what was being forecast yesterday. This from TStorm:

There are no changes to the T-storm Weather Outlook with GFS ensemble rainfall output similar to previously through July 31, and temperature output varied.

Seasonable to cool weather affect a wide area through Friday, accompanied by some t-storms in / near KS-NE-MO Wed.-Thu. as some energy passes. Temperatures soar in the Plains and western Corn Belt Fri.-Sun. as the next round of heat unfolds, including the potential for spring wheat to be the warmest of the last 48 years over the next 14 days (after just achieving that record for the last 15 days). Conversely, some cool fronts pass one to two weeks out in the eastern U.S. to leave eastern corn / soybeans nearer-normal (coolest in OH).

Some t-storms inevitably accompany the setup, but low humidities from eastern cool fronts or hot upper-level high pressure blocking energy limit totals. If correct, more rain will be needed as the coverage of 15-day dryness approaches the 85th percentile on U.S. corn (ending Jul. 19), despite the coverage of 30-day dryness being normal.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Little change in the outlook after today's action, as charts continue to look friendly as we stay at or near recent highs and yesterday's gaps higher continue to hold. 

There are several supportive factors at play presently which would seem to limit downside risk in the short term unless weather forecasts take a bearish turn or China throws cold water on the current optimism that they will continue to be steady buyers of soybeans and eventually corn and wheat. The ongoing wars aren't likely to go away any time soon, and that tends to call for additional risk premium in prices.

If China is going to live up to the White House insistence that they will buy 25 MMT of soybeans by year's end, and an additional $17 billion of other ag purchases, they need to maintain a very strong pace of purchases. This seems challenging to us, but with President Xi scheduled to visit the White House in two months (September 24), it does seem logical that China would try to at least put on a decent performance in buying activity until then. 

We continue to hold off on any new sales for either old or new crop, but we are approaching some very attractive levels that we are likely to capitalize on soon. 

Other Notes

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• No flash sales reported today.

• More rumors of China continuing to book new crop soybean purchases. US prices are cheaper than Brazil starting in August and through the end of the year (which is normal as US harvest takes place). 

Here is this afternoon's NWS 8-14 day forecast, very similar to yesterday's, and not showing any relief in that time slot:

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report released today, covering positions through Tuesday, July 14, showed funds adding to their bullish bets across the board. Corn's net long jumped to 43k contracts, up about 31k on the week, soybeans' net long grew to 73k, up a more modest 4k, and wheat saw the biggest shift, funds trimming their net short from 62k down to 37k, a 25k swing.

What stands out to us is the price action underneath those numbers, corn and beans were actually lower over the reporting week itself, corn down 4 cents and beans down 7, yet funds were net buyers into that weakness, while wheat was the opposite, already up 26 cents over the same stretch as the short covering accelerated. All three then kept climbing into the back half of the week, corn up 7 more, beans up 12, and wheat another 38, which tells us the buying likely did not stop at Tuesday's cutoff.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

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