Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/22/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	462	+9 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	484 3/4	+9 1/2
Aug '26 Beans	1233	+13 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1239	+16 1/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	705 3/4	+27 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	763 1/2	+30 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	80.95	+0.53
Aug '26 Crude Oil	86.50	+1.99
US Dollar Index	100.95	-0.09
Dow Jones	52,458	+46

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets kept the rally going today with November soybeans making a fresh 3 year high, a new high for the move in corn, and spot wheat closing above $7 for the first time in over 2 years. Each market was quiet on last nights open, but the buying picked up overnight and then escalated this morning before each closed at or near their daily high.The biggest news of the day came from T-Storm, who late in the day, cut his yield estimates, corn down to 182.7 from 185.4 and now below the USDA's own 183, with soybeans slipping to 52.5 from 52.7 and also below USDA.  As you recall, he had been adamant that the corn crop was there outside of a dire late July/August and we suppose he saw enough today to officially downgrade.

In regards to the wars, fresh reports of drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian port facilities kept the war premium building, and crude pushed higher again on the same Iran and Black Sea backdrop.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn punched through the low 480s target we had been watching, closing today at 484 3/4, and is now working toward 492, then the spring high near 500. Support shifts up to that low 480s area, then the 468 to 470 gap underneath, then 457.

Nov beans cleared the 1231 to 1232 resistance we had been watching and closed today at 1239, within shouting distance of the spot 2024 high near 1257. A close above that opens truly uncharted territory, while support now sits at that old 1231 zone, then the 1204 to 1210 gap, then 1188 to 1190 and the 50 day average at 1173.

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread held steady at a 22 3/4 cent carry, barely changed from 22 1/2 yesterday. The Aug/Nov bean spread widened out to a 6 cent premium for new crop, up from 3 1/4 yesterday, new crop gaining on old crop again today.

Weather: TStorm downgraded soybeans to Unfavorable today, dropping a full notch from Slightly Unfavorable, while corn held at Slightly Unfavorable and winter wheat stayed Neutral. Their tone has clearly turned more urgent, with today's yield cuts now putting both crops beneath USDA's own numbers, and their own data shows only 5 or 6 of the last 47 years drier than this at this point in July. The forecast calls for heat returning Friday through the weekend across the Plains and western Corn Belt, right as corn finishes pollination and soybeans head into their own key stretch, with only limited rain chances before then.

Markets/Trading Implications

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December corn clearing the low 480s alongside today's yield cut is just the latest leg in a run that has been building for weeks now. As we mentioned, we have now gained back all of the losses from the month of June on this rally. There is resistance above and with some bearish divergence building we thought this a good place to shed some more old crop with our sale today. As mentioned in the voiceblast, we aren't in a hurry to get much more new crop done being 40% sold with our last couple sales coming above the current price.Beans continue to impressive as well and with with T-Storm under the USDA and China buying rather routinely, it has had plenty of reason to. We shed most of our remaining old crop today, but like corn, aren't in a hurry to price more new until we see how this forecast plays out.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report released today, covering positions through Tuesday, July 14, showed funds adding to their bullish bets across the board. Corn's net long jumped to 43k contracts, up about 31k on the week, soybeans' net long grew to 73k, up a more modest 4k, and wheat saw the biggest shift, funds trimming their net short from 62k down to 37k, a 25k swing. What stands out to us is the price action underneath those numbers, corn and beans were actually lower over the reporting week itself, corn down 4 cents and beans down 7, yet funds were net buyers into that weakness, while wheat was the opposite, already up 26 cents over the same stretch as the short covering accelerated. All three then kept climbing into the back half of the week, corn up 7 more, beans up 12, and wheat another 38, which tells us the buying likely did not stop at Tuesday's cutoff.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.