Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/08/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	435	-8 3/4
Dec '26 Corn	456 1/4	-8
Aug '26 Beans	1193 1/4	-1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1192 1/4	-5 1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	607 3/4	-10 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	645 1/4	-7 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	80.58	-0.71
Aug '26 Crude Oil	74.03	+3.60
US Dollar Index	100.76	-0.09
Dow Jones	52,598	-600

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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After a firm overnight that carried both corn and soybeans to new highs for the move, our markets turned and handed most of yesterday's gains right back by the close. 

The China soybean flash sale everyone had been waiting on finally hit the wire this morning, and it even included some old crop. But as we flagged yesterday, these rallies have a habit of stalling the moment the sale is actually confirmed, and that is precisely how it played out. Buy the rumor, sell the fact, plain as day.

T-storm had been downplaying the GFS run from yesterday and that ended up being the right call with it easing a bit today in the midday weather run with it cooler and a touch farther west. This took some of the heat premium the trade had been paying for right back out of the market. 

Outside markets had one real story, and it was crude, which ripped higher again on the Strait of Hormuz escalation while stocks slid on the same headlines(although firmed off its lows). Our market largely looked past it, busy unwinding its own China and weather premium.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: A bit of a setback in December corn as it fell short of its 50 and 200 day moving averages on the strength overnight and then sold off back to our support level near 454 before firming a bit late. Below that support sits 450 and 445.

Nov beans ran right back up into the 1200 area and stalled there again. Above there the year plus high near 1214 is next and then 1250. Support comes in at 1180 then 1174,

Weather: TStorm left corn, soybeans, and winter wheat unchanged, all still neutral, with no changes to the outlook. T-storms keep working through the belt into the weekend, then a very large upper level high builds heat into the northwest half of the crop Saturday for four to five days. The catch is the high likely sets up too far north to fully take over, so northeasterly winds keep the southeast half seasonable, and a cool front is then set to reach the eastern belt around July 15. That cooler, less threatening lean is a good part of why premium came out today.

Markets/Trading Implications

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A down day does not undo the turn we have been tracking, but it is a healthy reminder of just how much good news was already in the price. The market had rallied on rumors of Chinese sales and a hot forecast, and while it got both (to an extent) nether have been to the extreme bulls were hoping for, at least so far.

As for weather itself, we are far form out of the woods with pollination starting or around the corner for many.    The northwest half bakes this weekend, but the cooler eastern trend takes the edge off, and the yield guesses tell the story, with the private crowd down near 181 to 182, the USDA at 183, and TStorm up closer to 185. That spread is the whole ballgame for Friday's numbers, and it is why we are in no rush to guess ahead of the report.

The energy side is a fresh wild card. With US crude inventories at a 42 year low and the Strait of Hormuz back in play, a war premium can bleed into soyoil and corn, but it is not a grain fundamental we would hang our hat on. We would treat it as a wind at the back, not a reason to buy.

For marketing, we are staying patient. We did not sell the highs and we are not going to chase this either, especially with Friday's report sitting right in front of us. If you are behind on coverage, reward strength in pieces rather than all at once, and give us a call before you make any moves.

Other Notes

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Here are the average trade guesses for Friday's supply and demand report. Corn ending stocks are expected to come in lower, mostly on the cut to quarterly stocks in the June 30 report, though as you can see a very slight trim to yield is expected as well. Soybean stocks are expected to rise in new crop.

Here is a look at December corn where areas of support and resistance are drawn out

Here is November soybeans

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 30 showed actively traded funds bought a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts down to 46k. They sold 6k soybeans, taking net longs down to 31k, and bought 2k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 69k.

This week's report, out Friday and covering through July 7, is the one to watch. After the short covering run of the past week and a half, it should show funds having covered aggressively and quite possibly flipping to a net long in corn for the first time in a while.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.