Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/06/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	438 1/4	+15 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	457 3/4	+16 1/4
Aug '26 Beans	1184	+47 3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1192 1/4	+44 1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	614	+14 1/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	649 3/4	+11 1/4
Sept '26 MN Wheat	629	+10 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	78.30	+1.18
Aug '26 Crude Oil	68.50	-0.20
US Dollar Index	100.630	+.01
Dow Jones	53056	+156

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Our markets opened moderately higher last night and never looked back, continuing to climb higher through the night and then the day session, eventually hitting a 5 week high for soybeans, 4 week high for corn, and 2 week high for Chicago wheat. 

Several factors inspired the surge higher including continued drought in France (cutting corn yields), bullish US forecasts (although very much subject to debate), and as usual, rumors that China might finally be ready to step up their buying. 

Although China still hasn't acknowledged the buying pledges that the White House continues to claim they agreed to, some weekend comments out of China suggested they might be interested in some buying. Adding to this hope was the weekly export inspections report that continued to show a Chinese presence in the soybean number where about 50% of a solid weekly number was earmarked for China. Although no flash sales were announced today, and very few for China (or Unknown Destinations) over the past several weeks, their continued presence in both the weekly inspections and export sales suggests they have been consistent buyers of small enough quantities that keep those purchases under the reporting radar. 

In addition, given the gradual improvement from the recent lows seen in corn and soybeans (even before today), plus being on the eve of the most important yield affecting weather, it's not hard to imagine that China would want to "play it safe" and book some imports at still low prices. 

In the meantime, we still wait for China to make an announcement that they are dropping their import tariffs on US grains and soybeans (which would clear the way for private Chinese companies to make some US purchases). 

By the close, corn settled just one cent off the session high, beans about 5 cents off of theirs, and wheat just two cents off its. A very impressive day and close. 

Outside markets saw a very flat crude oil market and continued strength in stocks with the Dow once again reaching fresh all time highs. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: A very different technical picture has now emerged for our markets given today's strength. Although December corn remains about 11 cents below its 50 day average of 469, it narrowed that gap considerably. We see that as the next main resistance level, and above that 483-485 and 490. Support should be seen at 453, 450, and 445.

November beans resistance is now seen at 1197-1200 and at the recent high at 1214. A print above 1214 would be the best price seen in over one year. Support should be seen at 1180-1183 and 1167-1170.  

Weather:  Interestingly, just as much of the trade is getting excited about some more heat and possible dryness coming over the next 1-2 weeks, TStorm actually raised their global assessment (mostly influenced by US weather this time of year) yesterday, raising both to Neutral from the recent grade of Slightly Unfavorable. They don't seem alarmed by the current outlook and their forecast actually strikes us as somewhat typical for mid-July. Here are their closing comments:

Only 11% and 19% of expected U.S. corn and spring wheat production were drier than normal over the last 30 days, which are low and seemingly favorable. Despite recent heat, temperatures over the last 30 days were normal for both crops. See first 4 maps.

Pockets of t-storms affect much of the central U.S. through Fri.-Sat. as temperatures fluctuate, including some substantial totals in the Corn Belt. Heat quickly develops Saturday in the Plains and northwest Corn Belt as upper-level high pressure expands, which will ultimately affect the northwest ~50% of U.S. corn and soybeans (plus spring wheat) for at least 5 days, but with only 2 to 3 days of heat likely with eastward extent. Not much rain is expected in this period (July 11-15) as the high blocks energy from passing.

At some point next Wed.-Fri. (Jul. 15-17), the upper-level high is probable to dis-lodge a large cool front for southeastern Canada and the eastern U.S. This usually causes much of the Corn Belt to turn considerably cooler, which remains the most probable scenario for 10 to 15 days out (some heat west, some coolness east, most in-between). Some t-storms are likely to accompany this setup, but the true setup will take awhile to determine depending on the extent of eastern coolness.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

As discussed last week, the trend looks to be shifting from lower to at least sideways, and that matters most for which arguments the market decides to hear. It spent weeks tuning out anything constructive, but as the charts have improved it has finally started giving weight to the bullish factors that were sitting there all along.

There is little question France's corn outlook continues to worsen, but given the EU's insistence on non=GMO corn, it is debatable just how much demand for US corn exports stands to benefit from this.

On corn, the weekly reversal is doing the real work by setting in motion a much more positive technical picture, and we can't stress enough how important this is to any market, regardless of obvious fundamentals. This appears to have set off a major short covering push in all three of our markets, and that is significant considering how large the funds' gross short positions have recently grown to (even though their "net" positions appeared to be relatively flat).

As shown below, in the week ended June 30, funds continued to reduce corn net shorts and soybean net longs, taking both close to net even. But importantly, the gross shorts in both, as well as in Chicago wheat, remain very large, helping to explain today's explosive short covering binge.

Other Notes

---

Today's Crop Condition update indicated little change with corn's good/excellent unchanged at 67% (74% year ago). Soybeans dropped 1% to 64% (66% year ago). 

Static Notes

---

The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 30 showed actively traded funds bought a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts down to 46k. They sold 6k soybeans, taking net longs down to 31k, and bought 2k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 69k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, December corn lost 1 cent, November beans gained 2 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 8 cents. In the 3 market days since, corn gained 22 cents, beans gained 48 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 25 cents. 

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.