Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/30/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	416 3/4	+6 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	436	+6
Aug '26 Beans	1124 1/4	+5
Nov '26 Beans	1143 3/4	+4 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	589 1/4	+9 1/2
Sept '26 KC Wheat	625 1/4	+10 1/2
Sept '26 MN Wheat	606 1/2	+5 3/4
Dec '26 Cotton	76.76	+0.31
Aug '26 Crude Oil	69.50	-1.25
US Dollar Index	100.940	+0.060
Dow Jones	52,670	+98

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Markets again opened on the defensive, with corn carving out fresh contract lows just minutes before the report hit and beans grinding back to within a few cents of their June 15 low. Buying started filtering in just ahead of the release, then ripped higher right at the eleven o'clock hour when the data dropped, even as the NASS website briefly crashed under all the traffic.

Once the numbers were visible and digested, the board pulled back off those extremes, fairly drastically in beans, before firming again into the close. Chicago wheat traded a similar pattern, climbing well off its low to settle up 9 1/2.

The most supportive piece was that nothing came in as bearish as the biggest bears had feared. That was especially true in corn, which got an unchanged acreage figure along with a quarterly stocks number more than 120 million bushels below expectations.

The bean report actually leaned bearish with a larger acreage figure and a fractional rise in stocks, but it too avoided the major shift to beans that some had been bracing for.

Outside markets saw crude notch a new high for the week early before fading to close modestly lower, while equities ran considerably higher.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn made a new now overnight, but was bought into and after the report to close higher and back above our daily resistance level of 434 1/4, meaning that's now support. Below that support is at 430 then at 422  Resistance now seen at 440-442 , 445, 450.

As for November Beans, major support is at 1135-1139, and then 1118 and 1105 , with resistance at this weeks high of 1158 and then near 1170-1180. 

Weather: TStorm left ratings unchanged today, holding corn and soybeans at Slightly Unfavorable and winter wheat at Neutral. The story is still heat, with moderate to strong warmth running through Friday and Saturday before a system or cool front breaks it down, firing scattered storms across a wide area into the weekend. Beyond that it gets murky, the central US likely splitting between seasonable temperatures southeast and very warm to hot northwest, though our guess is nobody can pin that down with much confidence yet. What we'd hang our hat on is that a big upper level high sits in or near the Plains next week and the week after, so the threat of heat stays on the table until the pattern clearly tips one way or the other.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Today gave a tired market something to lean on. The report didn't have to be bullish to help, it just had to clear away the bearish fears that had funds pressing shorts and leaning on the board day after day, and once that cloud lifted the short covering and bargain buying did the rest.

For corn, the setup has been overdone compared to fundamentals and that got an even bigger shot in the arm today. Acreage came in unchanged from March and the quarterly stocks figure landed well below what the trade was looking for, which tells us the bushels are getting used and the demand underneath this market is real.  That export demand we kept pointing to never went away, and we'd have to think the worst of the fund selling is behind us now that the report risk is finally gone. 

Beans are a bit of a different story as the data leaned bearish with the bigger acreage number and the slight bump in stocks, so admittedly there is less to get excited about on paper. We have been saying for weeks the trade is worn out waiting on China, and nothing today changed that, but the crush stays excellent and that business still looks like a question of when rather than if. The bean market likely needs another push from something to really get going to the upside (China/weather/etc.), but either way the selling should remain limited.

We made the point yesterday that these crops are hardly "made" and there is next to no risk premium in the board, and a relief rally off a report does not change that math. There are mixed reports on the severity of the forecast, but the bottom line is that there certainly remains a threat into the middle of July.

We have felt this break was overdone for a while now, and today was the market starting to agree with us. Considering the data and the price action that came with it, we come away calling today a "win" that should at a minimum slow the selling, though weather over the next few weeks and of course China will have plenty to say about where it goes from here.

Other Notes

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Here are is a rough estimate of where ending stocks may be after the update in acres today. Its important to keep in mind that this is using both trendline yields as well as no recent changes in demand. While not tight by any means, its hardly burdensome.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 23 showed actively traded funds sold a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 70k. They sold 16k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 37k, and sold 1k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 71k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 4 cents, July beans lost 13 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 9 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 3 cents, soybeans gained 9 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 11 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.