Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/29/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	402	-10 3/4
Corn Dec '26	430	-11 1/2
Beans July '26	1108 3/4	-17 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1139	-17 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	579 3/4	-10
Wheat-KC July '26	614 3/4	-4 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	601 1/4	-4
Cotton Dec '26	76.45	+.07
Crude Oil June '26	70.65	+1.42
US Dollar Index	100.86	-0.27
Dow Jones	52,182	+306

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Brutal day as funds continue to sell, presumably a combination of exiting longs before July First Notice Day (tomorrow) and new shorts piling on. Weather influence is two-sided--some forecasters say current heat is welcome and not likely to last, others say extended heat a very real possibility. Tomorrow's key twin reports (Acreage update and quarterly Stocks In All Positions) added to trade anxiety--see average trade guesses below.

By the close, corn had made new contract lows in both old and new crop months before firming slightly into the close. Soybeans only made a two day low and Chicago wheat hit its lowest price since early February and both ended near session lows.  

Outside markets saw higher crude oil prices while stocks soared on reports that US and Iran are once again scheduled to have new talks despite increased bombing activity over the weekend. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Both and new crop corn experienced a meltdown today, taking out previously noted support levels. Now at new contract lows, we see possible support in the December contract at today's low near 427 and then at 422 and then 408-410. Resistance now seen at 440-442 , 445, 450.

As for November Beans, major support is at 1135-1137, and then 1125, with resistance at 1145, 1153 and then near 1170-1180. 

Weather:  TStorm's global conditions have both corn and soybeans at Slightly Unfavorable due to both US and EU conditions. As for current forecast, here are their closing comments for today:

There are no changes to the T-storm Weather Outlook; the main uncertainty remains temperatures one to two weeks out with hot upper-level high pressure near but unlikely fully-inside the central U.S.

Moderate to strong heat continues through Saturday (except in / near MT) as upper-level high pressure forms. A system or cool front likely ease heat for several for the southeastern half to two-thirds of corn and soybeans around Sunday (July 5), while the northwestern third to half is / turns hot (including spring wheat). Several t-storm clusters form within the northern third to half of the central U.S. through Friday as waves flow along the edge of heat, followed by scattered t-storms within a wider area Sat.-Mon. as a wave or cool front passes.

Weather one to two weeks out is dependent on the temperature forecast. It remains unlikely for seasonableness early next week to envelop all of the central U.S. and last. Instead, temperatures are likely to be warmer or much-warmer than normal for at least some corn, soybeans, and spring wheat. Rainfall will likely be mixed as the upper-level high blocks some energy, but it will not be large enough to completely block energy. We continue to forecast 1.00" to 3.00" north and 0.50" to 1.50" south over the next 14 days.As you can see, nothing to completely bank on, but the potential appears to indicate lasting heat is a possibility. Export demand for corn remains excellent: 

Markets/Trading Implications

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The recent sideways action turned ugly today with new weakness turning into an exclamation point. This selling was likely somewhat exaggerated due to tomorrow being the July First Notice Day plus the looming influential report release tomorrow, but regardless of the reason, there is no question the technical picture has deteriorated even further. 

Oddly enough, demand continues to be very good for corn (see chart below showing the exceptional ongoing export demand) and excellent for soybean crush. No question the trade is getting tired of the constant promises of big Chinese business directly ahead, but that does still remain a very real possibility, even though taking longer than any of us would like. 

As for the weather, even though conditions remain decent overall, these crops are hardly "made" considering it is only June 29, and extremely little risk premium exists in today's prices. 

The EU is experiencing extreme drought conditions, damaging their corn and wheat crops. 

At this point wheat production of the major exporting countries is down about 50 MMT (almost 2 billion bushels) from last year, and due mainly to the lower US corn acreage, world corn production is down about one billion bushels from year ago levels.

The point is this severe drop in prices seems overdone to us, and we firmly believe better pricing opportunities lie ahead.

Let's get tomorrow's reports behind us, and hope we don't get a bearish acreage shock...

Other Notes

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Here are the average trade guesses for Tuesday's acreage and quarterly stocks reports:

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 23 showed actively traded funds sold a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 70k. They sold 16k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 37k, and sold 1k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 71k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 4 cents, July beans lost 13 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 9 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 3 cents, soybeans gained 9 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 11 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.