Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/26/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	412 3/4	-2
Corn Dec '26	441 1/2	-1 1/4
Beans July '26	1126 1/4	-1/4
Beans Nov '26	1156 1/4	-3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	578 1/4	-12 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	611	-9 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	575 1/2	-11 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	76.17	-0.80
Crude Oil June '26	69.09	-2.83
US Dollar Index	101.105	-0.145
Dow Jones	52,254	-85

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Corn and soybean markets gave a little back today, but it was still a nice latter half of the week overall considering the reversals higher we say yesterday. Today had the feel of fund managers  just squaring up before a week that has a lot riding on it. Plus July options expired today so there was certainly someone "pinning" by those same folks hoping to impact option exercising.

Corn had some life overnight and poked above Thursday's highs before it drifted off and settled a touch lower. Beans never did much, having an inside day, but closed well off their morning lows.Crude kept right on sinking to another fresh low after Trump said he had no interest in retaliating for Iran's latest hit on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, that he had simply disabled them. Equities markets were lower as well with the Nasdaq making a lower low for the third time this week.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July Corn saw some follow through buying, but stalled out at 417 before closing near our aforementioned support level near 411. We want to see that area hold on a closing basis to feel good about a nearby low being in place. It's all about the 422-424 area still though in terms of resistance, an area we have been talking about for weeks. The equivalent level in December corn would be near 453 (resistance) while support is at 438.

July beans saw early weakness, but found support at our support level near 1120 before bouncing to close near unchanged. We want to see that general area hold on a closing basis to feel good about a nearby low being in place. Resistance is at 1140 and then 1160.As for November, major support is at 1135 while major resistance will be up near 1170-1180. 

Weather:  TStorm's forecast is unchanged, with corn at Slightly Unfavorable and beans and wheat at Neutral. Cooler air holds through Saturday before a heat wave builds in Sunday and Monday and likely runs at least 5 to 10 days as high pressure shifts west across the central US.

The cool front around July 5 should drop the southeast half of the corn and bean belt back to near normal for a few days while heat keeps cooking the northwest half. The hotter, longer scenario runs about a 1 in 4 chance, the much cooler outcome about 1 in 6, with something in between the most likely path for July 5 to 10.

Storms favor the northern Plains and Minnesota Saturday into Monday, with scattered activity in the belt, parts of Illinois especially, leaning more north with the heat than south.

Markets/Trading Implications

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As we mentioned, a nice latter half of the week, and one in which we would feel pretty confident that higher highs were ahead if there weren't so many potential catalysts in the week ahead. Tuesday brings the acreage and quarterly stocks report, generally the biggest of the year, and the trade is already set up for it. The average guess does not show much of a shift out of corn and into beans, but there are private numbers out there looking for a much bigger move, so there is real room for fireworks either direction.

Weather is the other half of it. The heat builds in over the weekend and is expected to hang around five to ten days, and admittedly the models have been all over the place on how far west the ridge sets up and how long it sticks. Some private folks have already started trimming yield on the wet June and the heat coming, and Monday's ratings will give the first read.

Beans are still all about China. The word is they have been around the last couple of days, and there were beans in the export sales figures that did not tie to anything announced. It is hard to get too excited until the buying turns steady, but the tone there is suddenly more supportive.

With a report and a big weather weekend both staring at us, its tough to get too bold with predictions, but continue to think the downside is limited from here outside of a major shock.

Other Notes

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• For the week, July corn was down 4 3/4 , December was down 2 1/2, July beans were up  3 1/2, November beans were up 13 1/2, July wheat was down 27 1/2, and December cotton was down 3.50.

Here are the average trade guesses for Tuesday's acreage and quarterly stocks reports:

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 23 showed actively traded funds sold a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 70k. They sold 16k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 37k, and sold 1k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 71k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 4 cents, July beans lost 13 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 9 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 3 cents, soybeans gained 9 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 11 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn			0%
Soybeans			0%
Wheat			0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.