Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/23/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	409 3/4	-1 3/4
Corn Dec '26	437 1/4	-2 1/4
Beans July '26	1117	+1 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1141 3/4	+1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	586 3/4	-10 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	618 1/4	-15 1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	588	-24 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	78.59	-0.82
Crude Oil June '26	73.38	-0.48
US Dollar Index	101.155	+0.360
Dow Jones	52,135	+16

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Another quiet and choppy session that ended with only modest changes across the board. Markets opened firm on President Trump's comments about pushing Iran to purchase US ag goods, but as has been the pattern lately that early strength faded. Prices sold off through the morning before firming the back half of the day.

There were more flash sales of corn to Mexico, but once again nothing from China. We are going to have to start seeing those sales come in fairly regularly from here if China is going to fulfill the 25 million ton bean quota the White House keeps pointing to, and every quiet day adds a little strain.

Outside markets stayed busy. Crude oil pushed to a new nearby low as negotiations continue between Iran, Israel, and Lebanon, while the Nasdaq kept up its volatile run and was down as much as 1,000 points at one stage.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The sideways to lower trade in corn continues with it today bumping its head on 414 before closing modestly lower. It found support just above its previous contract low, but another test below 408 likely means a test near 400 is in the cards. 411 remains the nearby objective and then the 422-424 area we have been talking about for weeks.

As for July beans, the support at 1120 has failed in back to back days despite closing modestly higher today. We have to have a close back above there to feel good about testing last weeks high, let alone 1140 anytime soon. 1110-1112 is the next level of support and then down near 1094.  

Spreads: The July/November carry firmed a bit today, closing at 24 3/4 as the trade senses old crop is running out of time to be rescued by any significant increase in Chinese purchases. With First Notice Day for the July contract coming up fast (next Tuesday), the focus will soon be on the August/November spread.

The July/Dec corn spread also firmed today, closing at 27 3/4 cents, approaching its widest close at 29 1/2 last week. This spread has continued to remain historically weak despite strong export demand as the trade sees carryover levels as more than adequate in spite of the decent demand.   

Weather: TStorm downgraded corn to Slightly Unfavorable, with beans and winter wheat both held at Neutral. The downgrade reflects a warmer and drier pattern building into the pollination window.

Coolness holds through Saturday with showers and t-storms around, and rainfall of 0.75 to 1.50 inches looks most common over the next seven days. Heat then arrives Sunday into Monday and likely lasts at least five to seven days, with highs from the upper 80s to upper 90s covering at least half of the corn and bean crop.

Some energy riding the northern edge of the heat could bring t-storm and cooling chances as early as Monday through Wednesday near Minnesota and Wisconsin, but the heat is expected to slow the jet stream and limit storm coverage compared to recently. A cool front may slide across the eastern half of the crop around the July 4 to 6 stretch, though the Plains and northwest Corn Belt look to stay hot, and beyond that the pattern hinges on where the upper level high settles.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The market continues to disappoint, but it remains inside its respective recent ranges. There is no shortage of bullish divergence either, and when combined with the recent changes in the weather forecast that suddenly sound much more threatening, it helps us feel more confident that the downside is limited from here.

Perhaps the biggest report of the year is next Tuesday as well, and while the consensus seems to be a one to two million shift from corn to soybean acres, that is certainly no given and another reason we do not think it makes a lot of sense for the funds to keep aggressively selling at these levels. As we have said for some time, carryovers are hardly burdensome, and thus even a slight shift could carry major implications.

Perhaps the biggest headwind in the short term is first notice day, a time when there will be plenty of decisions to be made for those with July basis contracts in place. As we mentioned on the voiceblast, we are happy to talk through those with anyone weighing what to do, and with the downside looking limited we would be hesitant to price old crop bushels down here, but realize its not that simple with bills and logistical reasons at stake.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 16 showed actively traded funds sold a net 41k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 46k. They sold 38k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 53k, and bought 10k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 70k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 6 cents, July beans gained 16 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 11 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 2 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gained another 2 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.