Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/15/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	447 1/2	+9
Dec '26 Corn	469 1/2	+9
Aug '26 Beans	1202 1/4	+9 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1201 3/4	+10 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	677 1/2	+32 1/2
Sept '26 KC Wheat	720	+42
Dec '26 Cotton	81.55	+.68
Aug '26 Crude Oil	79.71	+.37
US Dollar Index	100.25	-0.46
Dow Jones	52,873	+82

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

The deteriorating shipping conditions in the Black Sea region continue to support the wheat complex and to a lesser degree corn as feedgrain supplies from that region are becoming more and more inaccessible due to increased bombing by both Russia and Ukraine. The recent escalation has now spread to grain carrying ships, something that until recently had been seen as more or less a "hands off" area respected by both sides.

The result today was that Chicago wheat ran up to its highest level since May 20 and December corn reached its highest since June 2. Beans tagged along to register their best close since May 19 although they have traded above today's high several times in the last 1-2 weeks.

Weather bulls continue to be very vocal despite forecasts turning a bit milder with temps expected to moderate and slightly more rain is expected. No news from China regarding any new flash sales or actual lifting of the still existent tariffs on US grains.

Outside markets reacted to this morning's PPI (Producer Price Index) which, like yesterday's CPI report, indicated inflation is cooling off somewhat. Crude oil ended firmer and stocks mixed.  

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: More impressive action for December corn which finally managed to close above its 50 day average (first time since May 20). Although that average continues to have a strong negative slope, this is red flag for the bears and is likely to bring on additional short covering. We see resistance at today's high around 471 and the at 480 and 495. Support should be seen at 465 (the 50 day average), 457, and 447. 

Nov beans also continued to impress, and resistance is likely at recent highs near 1207 and the longer term high at 1214. Contract high is 1241. Support is seen at 1194, 1185, then 1170 to 1174 underneath, so there is some room before this gets uncomfortable.

Weather:  KInd of a complex forecast with very unstable conditions persisting, but here is TStorm's late summary today. They continue to peg overall conditions for corn and soybeans as Neutral, and are not alarmed by the above average heat in many areas. 

Heat continues north into next week, while an area of scattered showers and t-storms with some decent totals unfolds form the mid-South through the eastern Corn Belt through Friday. Cool fronts start to pass at some point Sat.-Tue. to ease or end heat in northern areas, while also triggering some t-storms within the eastern half of the central U.S.

The setup over much of next week (Jul. 21 - 25) is probable have some heat south / west and some coolness north / east, leaving most corn and soybeans in-between with some t-storms, but not heavy rain. Thereafter, attention turns to the onset of the Southwest monsoon because enough hints exist to forecast some rain in the Plains starting at some point next Thu.-Sun. If it fails to form and temperatures stay warmer, then we will increase t-storm chances because energy along the edge of heat = t-storms. In the end, at least some rain is probably ahead for most, but the forecast will not be fully resolved for awhile.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

Very impressive action taking prices up to levels not seen for almost two months. 

The trade seems to be experiencing growing confidence that more Chinese business is coming, and the recent S&D which lowered the corn and wheat carryovers gave a clear picture that there is little room to play with regarding yields before carryovers could become tighter than we've seen for some time. This is true for soybeans as well, even though the S&D report left the soybean carryover unchanged. (But the stocks to usage ratio for soybeans was already much less than that for corn: 6.9% for S, 11.0% for C).

Several private firms are dropping their corn yields to the 181-182 area, which would imply a carryover sub 1.4 billion (USDA at 1.790), which would bring on some price fireworks if the trade began to accept that kind of yield. This makes weather over the next 2-3 weeks critically important with big price ramifications. Soybeans, as seen today, are likely just tagging along the corn action in terms of weather impact, while their main price catalyst besides weather is Chinese biz until we get into the more important soybean weather in August.  

We remain comfortable sitting on our 40% recommendation on new crop corn and soybeans, and would rather see how this technical/weather test resolves before adding to sales (or possibly buying back some sold bushels if weather were to turn extreme). Every situation is a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

---

• China continues to reportedly be sniffing around for US wheat offers as well as soybeans, while they also continue to book Brazil origin soybeans. No flash sales today. 

  
  

  So far, the buying seen by the Chinese has been mostly by the government entity COFCO, and any sizeable private buying is still not expected to appear until/unless China finally drops their existing 10% import tariffs on US corn, beans, and wheat. 

• The softer CPI and PPI reports from yesterday and today, showing cooler inflation, has buoyed the bond market (lower interest rates) which has in turn lowered the Dollar, which is another plus for our markets. 

• Here are the updated daily and weekly corn, soybean, and wheat charts. The wheat action has been the most extreme, reflecting the Black Sea area issues as well as the fact that US acreage and production is at multi-decade lows. 

Static Notes

---

The most recent Commitment of Traders report, covering positions through Tuesday, July 7, showed funds as big buyers across the board. They bought a net 59k corn contracts, flipping to net long 13k, bought a net 37k soybeans to push longs to 69k, and bought 7k Chicago wheat, trimming shorts to 62k. The next update, covering through July 14, is out Friday.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.