Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 5/15/2026

CONTRACT	CLOSE	NET CHANGE
Corn July '26	455 3/4	-11 3/4
Corn Dec '26	481	-10 1/4
Beans July '26	1177	-15 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1170 3/4	-12 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	635 3/4	-22 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	688	-17 1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	685 3/4	-16 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	81 66	-2.82
Crude Oil June '26	105.64	-4.47
US Dollar Index	99.23	+0.50
Dow Jones	49585	-478

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Another day of weakness across the board as our markets continued to reflect disappointment in the lack of any tangible trade progress made in the US/China summit. As traders reflected on the detailed reporting of the meeting, there was really nothing concrete to look at that would indicate more business from China is to be expected any time soon. 

Treasury Secretary Bessent made the comment that "soybeans are all taken care of" which seems to send a pretty clear message that in the US administration's eyes the whole drive to make China buy more soybeans (and other ag production) is seen as "mission accomplished".

The problem with that is that for one thing, that isn't any more than they were buying before all this began, and even more importantly, China has yet to even acknowledge that such an agreement was ever even arrived at! (We are referring to the US insistence that in October both countries agreed to China buying 25 MMT of soybeans over each of the next three years.)

By the close, July corn ended at a 25 day low and July beans at a 21 day low, both now below their respective 50 day averages. Wheat ended at a 5 day low, and closed the gap from when it gapped higher on May 12, although it remains about 18 cents above its (upward sloping) 50 day average. 

Outside markets saw a weaker stock market, also reacting to the summit failing to meet pre-meeting bullish expectations, but as of this writing well above its overnight lows. 

Crude oil sharply higher, ending at its best close in about two weeks, and the bond market was sharply lower, reflecting higher interest rates, presumably due to higher inflation expectations.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: A pretty quick reversal in the corn technical picture, now closing below its 50 day average for the second day, and almost 30 cents lower than the high put in Wednesday, just two days ago. We still see some support coming in at 455 and then at the previous swing low at 448. Resistance likely to be seen at 468 (the 50 day average), 475, and 487. .

July soybeans also succumbed to their 50 day average, closing below it for the first time since April 27. Support should be seen at today's low around 1170-1172, then at the previous swing low around 1157. Resistance is now seen at the 50 day average of 1192, then above near 1204.

It is important to note that despite recent weakness, the 50 day average is still trending higher for both corn and soybeans, which is a definite positive, but if short term weakness continues those averages will flatten out.   Spreads: The July/November inverse continues to weaken due to the realization that it is looking unlikely there will be any nearby soybean purchases by China. The inverse narrowed to just 6 1/4 cents today which is the smallest inverse since January. With the soybean carryover near 300, its going to take a crop scare or, again, Chinese purchases to move that needle again.

The July/Dec corn spread continues to widen, now at a 25 1/4 cent carry, its widest in the life of the spread. This is an extremely wide carry for that intercrop year spread, and although it isn't likely to widen much further, without another surge in export demand or a threatened crop, there doesn't appear to be any "fuel" to tighten it in the foreseeable future. 

Weather: TStorm now has global conditions for both corn and soybeans as Neutral, and for wheat, Favorable. The US forecast looks crop friendly for most areas:

GFS ensemble output is drier than previously across the northern Plains, but our forecast is unchanged with more rain probable to be needed one to two weeks out for wheat in MT and the Dakotas either way (especially spring wheat with 92% drier than normal over the last 30 days ending May 14, and the next-closest 79% in 2021).

Very warm and hot weather dominate the central U.S. through at least tomorrow. Temperatures then gradually plummet from northwest to southeast Sun.-Wed. as a large cold front passes. The initial warm-up will trigger t-storms in the central Plains and more-so the Corn Belt through tomorrow night with isolated to scattered 0.25" to 0.75" totals and a pocket or two of ~1.00". Areas of rain and t-storms then affect a wide area Sun.-Wed. as the cold front approaches / passes to improve soil moisture but slow planting.

Several dry and cool days follow the exit of rain. A warmer and somewhat stormier period likely starts next Sat.-Mon. (May 23-25) as much warmer air returns and the main storm track aligns overhead; near-normal totals most probable with best rains south.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

While we felt the market was vulnerable at recent levels, hence our sale recommendations near this week's highs, the extent of the selling does seem a little extreme in light of the arguably "price friendly" S&D data. The lack of any grain specific news coming from the US/China summit is certainly a disappointing result, and added fuel to the fire to encourage some liquidation from the very long funds. But we have a long growing season ahead of us, and S&D balance sheets leave little room for error. We doubt the funds are on the verge of a complete exodus from their still large long positions, and although some additional liquidation could easily occur next week, our guess is some amount of "core longs" by the funds is likely to remain, and we will see prices stabilize very soon. 

Given the strength of the move, our guess is any correction higher gets sold for the time being. That said, after this weakness, it's hard to think the market can get too far below the April lows for both July corn and soybeans. Both areas should act as meaningful support. (The April low in July corn was 448 and the April low in July beans was 1157.)

Other Notes

---

• For the week, July corn lost 15 1/2 cents, July beans down 31 cents, July Chicago wheat gained 16 3/4, and July cotton lost 4.12.

• The monthly crush report released today came in a little below expectations, but was still 11% higher than the year ago quantity crushed. 

• The EU is still having fits over some phytosanitary issues with meal imported from Argentina where the HG4 gene has been detected. This continues to support the meal market as some of this EU demand is likely to shift to the US as a supplier. 

• Even thought US HRW wheat production has been hit hard, this has failed to provide continued support because of cheaper world values that are expected to severely undercut export demand for US wheat. 

Static Notes

---

The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 12 showed actively traded funds sold a net 44k corn contracts, taking net longs down to a still very large 300k contracts. They sold 7k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 215k, and sold 9k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 19k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn was unchanged, July beans gained 27 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 51 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 24 cents, soybeans lost 50 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 43 cents.

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

commodity market

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.