Daily Commodity Market Analysis May 6th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	468 1/2	-11 1/2
Corn Dec '26	490	-10 1/2
Beans July '26	1194 3/4	-16 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1175 1/2	-14
Wheat-Chi July '26	617 1/4	-10 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	687	-3
Wheat-MN July '26	692 1/2	-3 1/2
Cotton Dec '26	84.82	-.51
Crude Oil June '26	94.88	-7.39
US Dollar Index	97.90	-0.41
Dow Jones	49,886	+587

Daily Glance

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High volatility session as markets reacted to early morning news that the US and Iran were close to agreeing to the terms of a one page memorandum that called for the war to end and for a 15 year ban on Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. 

Crude oil tanked, losing more than $13 a barrel, and stock indices soared. This caused a deflating of some of the war premium that existed in grain prices. Corn, beans, wheat, and cotton all fell hard on the news, and even when crude oil recouped half of its losses, the comeback for corn didn't happen and only a minimal bounce was seen in soybeans. 

At session lows, front month corn had dipped to a 7 session low and beans to a 5 session low. 

Outside markets saw stocks continue to climb, with the S&P and Nasdaq markets reaching record highs again as they continue to spiral higher. commodity market

Key Points/Developments:commodity market

Technicals: Quite the turnaround today as corn melted below several of the support numbers we have discussed. But the important support at the 50 day average of 466 held and what we saw as support levels are now resistance--472 and 481-483.

July soybeans also saw a major change to the downside, but also saw support at their 50 day average hold at 1188-1189. We see that as support at this point with more below at 1172 and 1155. Resistance should now be seen at 1195 and 1215. 

Spreads: The July/November inverse weakened by 2 3/4 today, now at 19 1/4. The tightest its gotten recently is 18 1/2.   Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread continues to be rangebound between an 18-21 cent carry, ending at 21 1/2 today. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes, and feel this is a low risk entry for a bull spread. 

Weather: TStorm left their corn and soybean ratings unchanged at Neutral today, while winter wheat remains at Slightly Favorable.

This from TStorm today:

Light rain (and some snow) end over the next 6 to 9 hours in eastern CO and western KS, followed by frosts and freezes in and near the same area tomorrow morning (coldest / in the 20s in CO and probably the first column of counties in western KS). Despite the unusual cold snap through then, temperatures soar into 70s tomorrow and then stay around the 70s-80s for awhile as Pacific air occasionally spills far inland (with some 90s west around Tuesday). The Corn Belt and mid-South will turn warmer one to two weeks out, but coolness over the next few days and another cold front Sun.-Mon. leave each slightly to moderately cooler than normal over the next 7 days.

Some showers and t-storms affect the southeast half of the Corn Belt at times (resuming Fri. or Sat.), but with unusual totals not expected. Conversely, low humidities to the northwest likely leave each region drier than normal over the next one to two weeks, which should allow corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting to accelerate at the expense of drying in spring and HRW wheat areas of the northern Plains.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Some follow through to the downside today was certainly prodded on by the outside war news, and is now highlighting the possibility that the very long funds might be increasingly tempted to lighten up. They undoubtedly have to some degree yesterday and today, and at this point we see the 50 day average levels mentioned above as extremely important. If the current slide takes prices below those levels on a closing basis, we would see this as increasing the odds of funds wanting to exit more longs, regardless of fundamental news or outside market changes. 

But the main catalyst continues to be the war and its effect on crude oil, which remains as uncertain as ever, despite today's headlines of the memorandum. 

The May 12 WASDE is the next data point on the calendar and will be especially meaningful for wheat, where the Small Grains forecast hits the same day. For those who missed yesterday's sales, our guess is the market gives you another look at these levels before the summit, and we'd use that opportunity to take some additional risk off the table.

Other Notes

The US Trade Representative is pursuing charges of Section 301 violations on the part of China for unfair trade practices. This seems like unfortunate timing with the Trump/Xi summit scheduled for next week, and the American Soybean Association expressed concern accordingly today. 

Here are the updated old crop and new crop corn and soybean charts, along with crude oil.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 28 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 264k. They sold 8k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 186k, and bought 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net long position of roughly 13k contracts after being net short the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 13 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat gained 44 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained another 4 cents, soybeans gained 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gave back 20 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.