Daily Commodity Market Analysis May 7th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	467 1/4	-1
Corn Dec '26	489 1/4	-1/4
Beans July '26	1192 1/4	-2 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1173 1/4	-2
Wheat-Chi July '26	612 1/4	-5
Wheat-KC July '26	667 1/4	-19 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	671 1/2	-18 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	83.44	-1.32
Crude Oil June '26	96.23	-0.02
US Dollar Index	97.98	+0.09
Dow Jones	49,686	-349

Daily Glance

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Markets continued where they left off in opening lower and trading that way most of the overnight and into the early day session. Corn and beans each sliced through their 50 day moving averages early, and that triggered a round of fund selling that pushed prices to fresh session lows.

Some buying started to trickle in after that and really continued throughout the rest of the session, with corn and soybeans each closing well off their intraday lows and back above their 50 day moving averages.News was fairly quiet, with the trade continuing to digest the news regarding the memorandum with Iran. It was reported that both Pakistan and China are pushing for Iran to accept it, though Iran is supposedly still hesitant to commit to the required updates to their nuclear program.

Crude oil sold off early but managed to hold above yesterday's low and again rallied late in the day. commodity market

Key Points/Developments:commodity market

Technicals: Corn found support as it retraced back to the top end of the range it traded in for most of fall of 2025 before bouncing there and managing to close back above its 50 day moving average. Today's low will mark important support while 472 marks a key pivot point and a level we want to see it quickly get back above if possible.

July soybeans too made a new low for the move, but found support in the middle of its range it traded in all of April before firming late to also close above its 50 day moving average. Today's low near 1182 will provide support, but more importantly 1170...the latter we don't want to see broken. Resistance is just above at 1195 and then 1215.

Spreads: The July/November inverse weakened to only 17 cents this morning before closing back near 19. Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread got all the way to 22 1/4 today before firming a bit ending at 21 1/4 today. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes, and feel this is a low risk entry for a bull spread. 

Weather: TStorm upgraded soybeans to Slightly Favorable from Neutral today, while corn remains at Neutral and winter wheat remains at Slightly Favorable.

Cool weather covers the Corn Belt and mid-South over the next 5 to 7 days, while the Plains turn sharply warmer with highs in the 70s to 90s on HRW wheat starting Monday and Tuesday. The Corn Belt and mid-South warm up after that as upper level high pressure builds in the southern US.

Showers and storms dot the southeast half of the central US through Sunday, with more possible 5 to 10 days out, though the setup is unclear. The northwest half of the central US looks drier than normal, with the southeast half near or drier than normal, which should help corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting accelerate.

Brazil's dry season has likely started for roughly 70% of second corn. A freeze is plausible Monday in eastern Santa Catarina and southeastern Paraná, hitting less than 1% of second corn, with a frost plausible for another 5% or so.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The sell off over the last three sessions has been ugly and swift, frankly swifter than we would have guessed despite our sale recs near the highs this week. But at these levels, especially from today's lows, our guess is the downside is limited for the time being. The energy story is far from over in our view, and with the China meeting still on the calendar for next week, it's hard to imagine funds continuing to aggressively liquidate from here, for now.

A close below 455 in corn or 1170 in beans would tell us a larger consolidation period is forming, with potentially more downside to follow. Both levels are still a ways from today's close, but they're worth keeping in the back of your mind.

We would expect another volatile session tomorrow and into next week with war headlines, the USDA report Tuesday, and the China/US meeting at the end of the week.

Other Notes

• US weekly export sales were disappointing. For the week ending April 30, the US sold 9.8 mil bu of wheat, 5.2 mil bu of old crop beans, and 53.6 mil bu of old crop corn.

• Brazilian President Lula visits the White House today for meetings with President Trump. Lula is expected to push back on USTR's Section 301 investigation into Brazil's manufacturing subsidies, with Brazil's 10% tariff set to expire in July.

• The US Senate Ag Committee has set May 12 as a hearing date on US fertilizer supplies and prices.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 28 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to 264k. They sold 8k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 186k, and bought 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net long position of roughly 13k contracts after being net short the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 13 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat gained 44 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained another 4 cents, soybeans gained 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gave back 20 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.