Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 6/15/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	415 1/2	+2 3/4
Corn Dec '26	441 3/4	+1 1/2
Beans July '26	1119 1/4	+5 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1134 3/4	+2 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	589 3/4	+5 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	640	+5 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	616	-2 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	76.81	+0.45
Crude Oil June '26	81.16	-3.72
US Dollar Index	99.400	-0.200
Dow Jones	51671	+469

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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The big news announced Sunday that some progress had occurred between the US and Iran, resulting in a scheduled signing of a Memorandum of Understanding to take place this Friday sent shock waves through most markets. 

When markets opened Sunday night, crude oil fell hard, dropping to a peak loss of $5.18 before ending today down just under $4.00. This rallied stocks to new record highs for most major indices, and the grain markets were sent lower. 

Corn, soybeans, and wheat all dropped to new recent lows with corn down as much as 10 cents, beans down 11 cents, and Chicago wheat down 13, but all began a steady recovery before the day session began. This recovery lasted into the close of the day session, and all three markets ended with modest gains. 

As of the close, details of the proposed agreement have not been released but based on hearsay and numerous reports from Iran, it sounds like the Strait of Hormuz is scheduled to be opened to traffic this Friday when the parties meet in Switzerland to sign the agreement. 

Many questions remain unanswered such as how much of Iran's frozen money will be released, whether their will be any reparations paid to Iran and by whom, whether shipping traffic will have tolls charged by Iran, and many others. And one of the main questions is whether or not Israel will refrain from more attacks on Lebanon, which could be a deal breaker if that were to happen.  

Today's grain turnaround was even more impressive considering that Friday's Commitment of Traders report indicated that the funds had been extremely heavy sellers of corn, beans, and wheat as of the week ended last Tuesday, and based on price action since then had appeared to continue selling all the way up to early this morning. 

The turnaround that occurred during the day session suggests that they had stopped their aggressive selling, making price action the next several days extremely important to watch for clues as to what direction they want to go next. With the bulk of the growing season ahead of us and the expectation among many that China will return as a big buyer, there seems to be plenty of reasons to think we are bottoming for now. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn came within a penny of closing the gap on the weekly chart at 405 from last September, and the recovery after failing to do so is encouraging the bull argument. 

This emphasizes that area, 405-406 as an important support level, and more below around 397. We now see resistance at 417-420, and more at 426 and 440. July soybeans should see support at 1108-1110, 1102, and 1095, with resistance at 1120, 1130-1132, and 1160.0

Spreads: The July/November firmed by 3 cents today to end at 15 1/2, up from its recent low near 21.

The July/Dec corn spread also firmed slightly today, by 1 1/4 to end at 26 1/4. It's widest close has been 28 1/2, occurring twice over last week. This level represents a good limited risk buy in our opinion, because that inter-crop year spread very rarely trades this wide. There are two potential bullish items that could tighten it in our opinion--very strong farmer holding at these very low prices, and the possibility that China finally steps in and makes some corn purchases.  

Weather: Global crop ratings for corn and soybeans took a notch down over the weekend per TStorm, with both now at Slightly Favorable due to growing drought concerns in the EU, and winter wheat remained at Neutral.

 US weather continues to look crop favorable for most with this closing comment from TStorm:

The main storm track continually flows across the central U.S. into the end of the month, which will send numerous systems and cool fronts through key corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas. Areas of rain and t-storms result every few days to generate 1.00" to 3.00" in the Plains (wettest east) and 1.50" to 3.50" in the Corn Belt and mid-South. The main events this week will be Tue.-Thu. as energies flow from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt, then Sat.-Sun. when a similar setup brings rain and t-storms to a wider area (especially central and south). Additional rains follow one to two weeks out.

The coming "Super El Nino" continues to garner much discussion and here are some interesting comments from another weather source that we follow:There are numerous longer term forecasts for this summer, but the two prevailing ones look like this:

The first is that this is a “Super El Niño” year, and thus most areas east of the Rocky Mountains will see adequate moisture..

The second is model based, with the European model calling for hot and dry conditions for the western corn belt in July and August. The GFS model is not as dry as the Euro model.

In the “modern era” (grain prices since 1972), there have been three very strong El Niños: 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/2016, and four El Niños rated “strong”: 72/73, 87/88, 91/92, and 2023/24. In that same modern era, there have been four major droughts where the corn yield fell significantly below trend line: 1974, 1983, 1988, and 2012. You will notice that 1983 and 1988 were strong, or very strong El Niños. In 1988, futures started to rally in early June, in 1983 the market gapped up just after the Fourth of July holiday, and in 2012, the futures started to take off on June 18th.  

Markets/Trading Implications

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All in all we have to call today's action encouraging, but obviously needs some positive follow through in the coming several days. 

The aggressive fund liquidation has been brutal for our markets, but based on their current positions (see Friday's letter) we believe the lion's share of their liquidation is now behind us, and today's price recovery would certainly seem to support that idea. 

In addition, the ability of our markets to firm despite the hard down day in crude oil is impressive, particularly the soybean oil action which came back from an early loss off almost two cents per pound to finish higher. The fundamentals for bean oil remain bullish, and today's monthly crush report showed very friendly bean oil fundamentals despite the overall crush number being a little disappointing. 

And of course the whole China question remains a huge uncertainty, but if the war is actually winding down, we would see that as a plus for the likelihood of China returning as a buyer sooner rather than later, and possibly acknowledging the commitments that the White House insists they have made. 

Weather remains a positive for the bears for the time being, but its far too early to make any assumptions on the crop being made.

We'd certainly not be sellers down here. If you're behind and feeling the pressure, give us a call before you do anything into a break like this

Other Notes

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Today's Crop Progress report indicated that corn conditions improved by 1%, now at 68% good/excellent. 

Soybeans also improved by 1%, now at 66% good/excellent. 

Winter wheat conditions improved by 2%, now at a still low 27% good/excellent

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 2 showed actively traded funds sold a net 90k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 115k. They sold 34k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 156k, and sold 39k Chicago wheat, pushing net shorts up to 58k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 21 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 33 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 23 cents, soybeans lost another 44 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 23 cents. This all suggests that funds are likely near flat in corn, which is pretty remarkable considering where they were just a handful of weeks ago

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.