Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 6/11/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	411 3/4	-7 1/4
Corn Dec '26	439 1/2	-7 1/4
Beans July '26	1115	-8
Beans Nov '26	1134	-4 1/2
Wheat-Chi July '26	586 3/4	-3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	634 3/4	+4 1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	619 1/2	+1 1/2
Cotton Dec '26	76.29	+0.99
Crude Oil June '26	87.71	-2.32
US Dollar Index	99.700	-0.340
Dow Jones	50,875	+885

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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The June report came and went without much to say about it. The trade had been guessing at a non-event for over a week, and that's exactly what the USDA delivered.

The changes were minor. Corn and beans were left essentially where they sat in May, and the only real adjustment came in wheat, where smaller winter wheat production trimmed all-wheat ending stocks a touch.

We had talked all week about how funds seemed unlikely to keep their foot on the gas heading into a report that carried surprise risk. That mostly held, though they came back as modest sellers once the report cleared and the path was open.

Crude was the bigger story for a while. Oil firmed early on the Iran and Strait of Hormuz worries, but the afternoon brought word that Trump had called off planned strikes and pointed to progress toward some kind of agreement. The de-escalation took the premium right back out, and crude finished sharply lower. Equity markets have been all over the place and were again sharply higher today after closing sharply lower yesterday.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Little leaked a to new for this move today, but hit our 410 support area before bouncing a bit. Below 410 see see support all the way near 397. Resistance is at this week's high near 425, and then at 440 and 455. 

The selling in July soybeans has certainly slowed and thus there is major bullish divergence brewing although we need a lasting move above 1125 for that to take shape. Resistance above there is at 1135 and 1160. Support is near todays low of 1010 and then down towards 1080.     

Spreads: The July/November carry took a step back to 19 today, although still up from its recent low near 21.

The July/Dec corn spread was unchanged at 27 3/4. It's widest close has been 28 1/2, occurring twice over the last week. This level represents a good limited risk buy in our opinion, because that inter-crop year spread very rarely trades this wide. There are two potential bullish items that could tighten it in our opinion--very strong farmer holding at these very low prices, and the possibility that China finally steps in and makes some corn purchases. The nearby low is near 30.

Weather: Crop ratings held steady today per TStorm, with corn and beans at Favorable and winter wheat at Neutral.

Two cool fronts keep firing storms across the southeast 70% or so of the corn and bean belt through Sunday, with more in the mid-South early next week. Temps plummet Saturday and Sunday as a cool air mass settles over the central US for about five days.

Warmth builds back into the central and southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, but the warm-up should trigger more storms to the north late next week and keep things active across a wide area. Parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, and the northern Plains run fairly dry over the next five to seven days.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The report is behind us, and the more interesting development is what's quietly taking shape on the charts. Volume was light post-report, and significant bullish divergence has now formed in both corn and soybeans.

Admittedly that divergence still has to verify, the same point we made on beans earlier this week. But the setup is there, and it's hard to get too worked up about downside from levels this low.

Corn made a fresh low today, which isn't what you want to see, but the divergence building underneath tells us the selling is getting tired. We'd be surprised to see funds try to build a fresh short here with the acreage report at the end of the month looming as the next real test. 

Weather remains a positive for the bears for the time being, but its far too early to make any assumptions on the crop being made.

We'd certainly not be sellers down here. If you're behind and feeling the pressure, give us a call before you do anything into a break like this.

Other Notes

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Here again is what came out of the report today:

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 2 showed actively traded funds sold a net 90k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 115k. They sold 34k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 156k, and sold 39k Chicago wheat, pushing net shorts up to 58k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 21 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 33 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 23 cents, soybeans lost another 44 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 23 cents. This all suggests that funds are likely near flat in corn, which is pretty remarkable considering where they were just a handful of weeks ago.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.