Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/13/2026

CONTRACT	CLOSE	NET CHANGE
Sep '26 Corn	448	-9
Dec '26 Corn	472	-8 3/4
Sep '26 Beans	1166	+0 3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1182 1/4	-1
Sep '26 Chi Wheat	652 3/4	Unchanged
Sep '26 KC Wheat	720 1/2	-0 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	83.34 <mdash;	-1.04
Crude Oil (spot futures)	81.25	-2.02
US Dollar Index (spot futures)	99.85	-.01
Dow Jones (spot futures)	53,935	+64

Daily Glance

Corn gave back the bulk of yesterday's rally today, sliding through the session before settling right around the support levels we flagged yesterday. Soybeans, despite their poor close yesterday, were firm most of the session, but too sold off late in the day to close modestly lower. Chicago wheat was up as much as 13 cents early in the day, but pulled back aggressively after it was announced that Ukraine proposed a peace deal in the Black Sea due to the level of civilian casualties.

Export sales came in just okay this morning, not disappointing, but roughly in line with what the trade was already expecting. Another flash sale of beans to China, this one for 125,000 metric tons, kept demand in the headlines even as the sales figures themselves were unremarkable.

Weather remains most crop threatening with hotter an drier than normal conditions forecasted into the end of the month, but got a little less severe today.

Outside markets were mixed, with crude giving back more than two dollars while equities firmed modestly.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn dropped 8 3/4 cents to 472, settling right in the 472 to 474 support zone we flagged yesterday after getting within 10 cents of their July highs yesterday. A close below that support opens the door to 466, then the 50 day average near 457. Resistance is back up near 480, then the July highs around 487 to 492.

Nov beans held up much better, easing just a penny to 1182 1/4, still parked just below the 1183 to 1185 resistance we have been watching. A close above there opens the door to yesterday's spike high near 1199. Support comes in at 1174 to 1176, the 50 day average, then 1165.

Spreads: The Sep/Dec corn spread widened slightly to 24 cents from 23 3/4 yesterday. The Sep/Nov bean spread narrowed to 16 1/4 cents from 18 yesterday, old crop giving back a bit more ground than new crop today.

Weather: TStorm left corn at Slightly Unfavorable today, unchanged, while soybeans held their improvement to Neutral from yesterday. Winter wheat stayed at Neutral.

There are no changes to the forecast track. A strong upper level high keeps producing strong heat across the south for the next 7 to 10 days or more, likely making the next 14 days the warmest for corn and soybeans since 2003, though central and northern areas see less of it, mostly through warmer than normal nights rather than extreme daytime highs. Thunderstorm clusters keep working through the heart of the Corn Belt into Saturday, especially over the next day, followed by scattered storms early next week when a cool front sweeps through and briefly limits the heat.

Markets/Trading Implications

Disappointing action today, with corn never trading above yesterday's high and never really finding much buying before closing near its lows. It does still sit above all of its major moving averages, but a day like today gives the trade some pause, especially considering how aggressive the yield cut was with so many private estimates still north of 184.

With harvest approaching for those in the south, it will likely be tough for any major rally to keep going, but we still think the downside remains fairly limited given how tight ending stocks are, even if the yield gets raised a tad.

On beans, China keeps buying ahead of Xi's meeting with Trump, and that demand has been the story on this side of the market. With ending stocks still north of 300 million bushels it is tough to get too excited about a major rally, but we would have to think the weather in front of us is worth more risk premium than what is in the market at these levels, with potentially the hottest stretch of August in better than 30 years ahead of us and the forecast staying fairly dry.

Yesterday's acreage number, a record between corn and soybeans, was obviously a shock and is certainly being debated by the trade, especially in a year when plenty of people thought acres could come in down. It is safe to say that without those acreage jumps, considering the yield cuts, we would be trading a lot higher right now.

We are comfortably sitting tight for now.

Other Notes

• Combined export sales for the week ending August 6 came in at 53 million bushels for corn and 67 million for beans, both up from the prior week and the bean number well above last year's pace as Chinese buying continues to normalize. Year to date new crop soybean commitments are running 115 percent ahead of last year, the largest pace since 2022.br>br>

• Brazil's crop agency raised its 2025/26 corn production estimate to a record 143 million metric tons, driven by a bigger second crop, though export projections held steady, meaning the extra corn mostly just builds stocks rather than moving into the export pipeline.

Static Notes

• ul>li> Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 4, indicated that actively traded funds bought 15k corn, thus increasing their net long to 182k. They sold 29k soybeans, reducing net longs to 125k contracts. They sold 17k wheat, increasing their net short to 24k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn lost 15 cents, soybeans lost 32 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three market days since this report, corn slipped another 3 cents, soybeans 2 cents, and wheat gained 1 cent.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor