Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/12/2026

CONTRACT	CLOSE	NET CHANGE
Sep '26 Corn	457	+20 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	480 3/4	+20 1/4
Sep '26 Beans	1165 1/4	+13 3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1183 1/4	+14 1/2
Sep '26 Chi Wheat	652 3/4	+22 1/2
Sep '26 KC Wheat	720 3/4	+21 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	84.38	-.01
Crude Oil (spot futures)	83.12	-.08
US Dollar Index (spot futures)	99.90	+.18
Dow Jones (spot futures)	53,890	+10

Daily Glance

Our markets were strong right out of the gate this morning following wheat's lead from a strong night trade. Escalating bombing of export facilities in the Black Sea, both Ukraine's and Russia's, continues to support wheat as export infrastructure continues to be destroyed.

The wheat strength spilled over to corn and beans, and likely touched off some short covering before the influential USDA report at 11:00 a.m. As reported before, the report offered some bullish changes, both from a supply standpoint and demand standpoint.

Oddly enough, the report indicated that production estimates increased for both corn and soybeans, despite their respective yield cuts, as the acreage jump in both more than offset the lower yields. But the increases in production were minor, and in the case of corn, the increased demand (both old crop and new crop exports were increased) resulted in a cut to the ending stocks estimate of 137 million bushels.

Corn ended right at its session high, wheat about a nickel below its, while soybeans' peak gains were cut in half by the close, but still managed their best settlement in seven days. Corn saw its best settlement in about three weeks.

Outside markets saw firm stocks and slightly easier crude oil.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn put an exclamation point on its recent ability to stay above its 50 day average, finally breaking out of its recent two week range. Its next target is the July highs which should provide resistance around 487-492. (492 is the the highest price since May). Above that we see resistance at 500 and the one year high at 506. It should find support at 472-474, 466 and its 50 day average near 457.

Nov beans should see resistance at 1183-1185 and then at today's spike high at 1199. Support should be found at 1174-1176 (50 day average), 1165, and 1155-1157.

Spreads: The Sep/Dec corn spread was unchanged at 23 3/4 cents. The December 26/July 27 carrying charge spread narrowed by 2 1/4 cents today to close at 28 cents. It's recent widest close is 30 1/2 and that spread's contract high is 31 3/4. Bull spreading the spread offers an attractive risk vs reward trading opportunity in our opinion. br>br>The Sep/Nov bean spread widened fractionally today to end at 18 cents.

Weather:span style="font-weight: bold;">TStorm's soybean ratings declined today, putting both corn and soybeans at Slightly Unfavorable, due to the forecast for lasting above normal heat, The forecast is calling for the next 14 days to be the hottest since 2003 for both corn and soybeans./span> .

span style="color: #ff0201;">There are no changes to the T-storm Weather Outlook with near- and above-normal rainfall and much above-normal temperatures for U.S. corn and soybeans (except dry south), and probably the warmest since 2003 over the next 14 days./span>

span style="color: #ff0201;">Waves of energy flow along the northern edge of heat with t-storms and near- and above-normal rainfall, but with a decisive cool front to break the setup unlikely until possibly 10 to 15 days out. The t-storm clusters will be in / near the Corn Belt through Fri.-Sat., followed by less frequent t-storms next week due to the arrival of some drier area associated with a cool front./span>

Markets/Trading Implications

As discussed above, today's data along with current weather forecasts and the fast approaching US/China summit seem likely to remain supportive. We all know weather can change quickly, but as forecasts now stand, yield concerns are likely to remain or escalate over the near future.

Much is being made of the revised corn stocks to usage ratio now standing at 10.1% (soybeans are at 7.0%). We haven't seen an end of crop year s/u ratio of less than 10% since 2022 when it ended at 9.9%. There is much chatter about how prices could escalate if/when we see a reading below 10%. The lowest it has ended since 2012 was 8.3% in 2020.

Soybean's s/u ratio remains at the lowest in four years, despite today's slight uptick.

We are content to hold off on any new sales for now.

Other Notes

• The combined acreage of corn and soybeans is now 183.5, a record high. Pretty amazing considering all the pre-planting chatter about how few acres would be planted because of the price outlook (and input availability and prices) at that time.br>br>

• A flash sale of soybeans to China for 244 TMT this morning, a bigger number than usual.br>br>

• Here are the updated S&D tables, and, below that, daily and weekly chart updates. .br>br>br>

Static Notes

• ul>li> Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 4, indicated that actively traded funds bought 15k corn, thus increasing their net long to 182k. They sold 29k soybeans, reducing net longs to 125k contracts. They sold 17k wheat, increasing their net short to 24k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn lost 15 cents, soybeans lost 32 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three market days since this report, corn slipped another 3 cents, soybeans 2 cents, and wheat gained 1 cent.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor