Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/11/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	436 3/4	-1 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	460 1/2	-1 1/4
Sep '26 Beans	1151 1/2	-10 1/4
Nov '26 Beans	1168 3/4	-10 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	630 1/4	-10 1/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	699 1/4	-14 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	84.43	+0.57
Crude Oil (spot futures)	83.45	+1.32
US Dollar Index	99.70	Unchanged
Dow Jones	53,892	-174

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Wheat led today's decline on an overnight rumor that Ukrainian and Russian officials would meet in Turkey to discuss safe Black Sea passage. That rumor was disputed for most of the day, but a report late in the session said Ukraine is indeed sending its peace terms to the US for review, giving the story some real substance by the close. Corn held within its recent range but firmed late, while beans touched a fresh five to six week low before settling a bit off of it.

Volume remains thin as the market braces for tomorrow's USDA report. Managed money stayed close to unchanged overnight, still long around 170,000 corn and 130,000 soybean contracts, while yield guesses keep spreading further apart, with several private estimates now down below 180 alongside others still north of 184.

Outside markets saw a volatile crude market that whipsawed on different headlines of peace negotiations with various countries, but ultimately closed near its highs.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn eased again to 460 1/2, still holding within the range we have been watching and comfortably above the 457 support. Resistance remains near 468, then 478 to 480.

Nov beans broke down to 1168 3/4, dipping below where they have traded in over a month before settling right in the 1167 to 1170 support band we flagged yesterday. A close below that support opens the door to 1155 to 1157. Resistance now comes in back near 1185.

Spreads: The Sep/Dec corn spread widened slightly to 23 3/4 cents. The Sep/Nov bean spread narrowed a touch to 17 1/4 cents.

Weather: TStorm's corn and soybean ratings both declined again today. Corn remains Slightly Unfavorable, while soybeans dropped a full notch to Neutral from Slightly Favorable. Winter wheat held at Neutral.

Both crops are dealing with the same problem, a heat wave that is not just about daytime highs. Overnight lows across the heart of the Corn Belt have been running more than 10 degrees above normal, and TStorm's soybean weighted data shows the stretch from now through August 24 running more than 4 degrees warmer than normal, which would rank among the warmest such stretches in more than 50 years if it verifies.

There are no changes to the forecast track. Thunderstorm clusters keep rotating through the central and northern belt, with one moving through Indiana and Ohio today, while the heat holds hardest in the south. A cool front briefly interrupts the pattern around the middle of next week but is not expected to reach the south, and the heat looks likely to build back in behind it.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Yield estimates remain all over the board heading into tomorrow, and even TStorm, whose YieldCast model has one of the better track records in the business, is sitting below the USDA on both corn and soybeans right now. Layer in the kind of heat wave we are dealing with this week, along with USDA export figures that still look like they are running behind where they need to be, and our overall read is that prices should have limited downside at from here. We are certainly not sellers at these levels.

Tomorrow's report could still bring some surprises, but keep in mind these yield numbers remain survey based. The USDA will not start layering in satellite data until the September report, so there is real room for these early figures to move as the season plays out.

Acreage is the other half of the equation, and NASS will not even have the Farm Service Agency's own acreage figures in hand before tomorrow's report drops. That data is not released until right after, so whatever NASS assumes for acreage tomorrow is still an estimate itself. The debate will not be fully settled until we see how the FSA numbers line up in the weeks ahead

Other Notes

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• The state by state crop condition breakdown shows real stress in spots, with corn rated poor to very poor in 40 percent of North Dakota, 46 percent of Colorado, and near 30 percent of Texas. The crop is also maturing fast, with corn's dough stage jumping 18 points in a week to 61 percent, six points ahead of the five year average.

• Private analysts keep trimming Black Sea export estimates as the war drags on. Ukraine cut its own grain export estimate by 12 percent to 38 to 40 million metric tons, while Russia's wheat export estimate has been reduced to 44.5 million metric tons, with August shipments now expected well below last year's pace.

• Export demand held steady, with two more cargoes of new crop soybeans sold to China and 180,000 metric tons of meal sold to the Philippines.

• Here are the average trade guesses for Wednesday's USDA report.

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Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 4, indicated that actively traded funds bought 15k corn, thus increasing their net long to 182k. They sold 29k soybeans, reducing net longs to 125k contracts. They sold 17k wheat, increasing their net short to 24k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn lost 15 cents, soybeans lost 32 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three market days since this report, corn slipped another 3 cents, soybeans 2 cents, and wheat gained 1 cent.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.