Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/10/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	438 1/4	-0 3/4
Dec '26 Corn	461 3/4	-0 1/4
Sep '26 Beans	1161 3/4	+2 3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1179 1/2	+3 1/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	640 1/2	+0 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	713 1/2	-0 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	83.77	-0.63
Crude Oil (spot futures)	82.17	+3.99
US Dollar Index	99.71	+0.28
Dow Jones	54,035	-120

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Grain trade stayed quiet and choppy today, extending the same low volume, sideways action we saw to close out last week. Corn, beans, and wheat all opened firmer overnight behind a sharply higher crude market, then drifted back to a mixed, mostly lower tone throughout the day session.

Positioning has begun in preparation for Wednesday's USDA report which could bring some surprises, both in yield and acres. DTN released their yields today with corn shocking the trade a bit at 178.5 while beans were similar to most at 52.1. As you can see below, 178.5 comes in well below the lowest guess of 180.5. 

Outside markets were dominated by the Strait of Hormuz situation, with Iran issuing a fresh list of demands and crude trading close to its highs for the day, up nearly four dollars and just under eighty two.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn eased slightly to 461 3/4, still holding above the 50 day average support near 457. Resistance remains near 468, then 478 to 480, with support below at 450 to 453, then 440.

Nov beans firmed bounced off its 50 day average this morning near 1175 before closing modestly higher. Resistance remains near 1185 and a close above there opens the door to 1205. Support below the 50 day is at 1167 to 1170, and 1155 to 1157 underneath.

Spreads: The Sep/Dec corn spread sits at 23 1/2 cents, a touch wider than the 23 cents we saw Friday. The new crop bean spread, now measured between September and November after the front month rolled to September, sits at 17 3/4 cents.

Weather: TStorm knocked its corn rating down to Slightly Unfavorable this morning and pulled soybeans back to Slightly Favorable from Favorable, while winter wheat held at Neutral.

Both declines trace to real heat building across the southern third of the corn and soybean belt, with central Kansas hitting 109 degrees Sunday and highs near 105 spreading into Colorado, while the 14 day outlook for the mid South is running more than 6 degrees above normal. There are no changes to the forecast track itself. Solid rain still looks likely for most of the Corn Belt, with clusters of thunderstorms rotating through different areas each day into the weekend, but that southern heat looks likely to stick around for a while, and dryness has started developing there as soil moisture falls fast.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Quiet start to the week with corn and beans continuing to consolidate in the lower end of their recent ranges. Each remain above their respected 50 day average as well as what we believe is pivotal long term support.  That corn number from DTN certainly stands out, but its certainly hard too get excited about such an outlier. It does add to the yield uncertainty we have been discussing and with the heat not letting up anytime soon, we have to think even a bearish surprise gets bought for the time being, thus we remain content in not chasing any more sales at these levels.

There are reports of basis making some serious strides in some parts of the county (for those that have any old crop) so look out for those. Call anytime!

Other Notes

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• Crop condition ratings came in unchanged in the good to excellent category for corn(61%) and down 1% in soybeans (62%).

Here are the average trade guesses for Wednesday's USDA report:

Static Notes

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Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 4, indicated that actively traded funds bought 15k corn, thus increasing their net long to 182k. They sold 29k soybeans, reducing net longs to 125k contracts. They sold 17k wheat, increasing their net short to 24k.The drop in soybean net longs was a combination of reducing longs and adding to shorts, while the increase in corn's net long was primarily due to short covering.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn lost 15 cents, soybeans lost 32 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three market days since this report, corn slipped another 3 cents, soybeans 2 cents, and wheat gained 1 cent.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.