Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/07/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	439	Unchanged
Dec '26 Corn	462	Unchanged
Sep '26 Beans	1159	-1
Nov '26 Beans	1176 1/4	-1 1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	639 3/4	+8 1/2
Sept '26 KC Wheat	714	+14 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	84.40	+1.24
Crude Oil (spot futures)	76.88	-.41
US Dollar Index	99.38	-.43
Dow Jones	54155	+132

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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A relatively quiet session that tried to move both ways but by the close, both corn and beans ended virtually unchanged. Both managed to push up to three day highs in early action, but were hit with late pressure, possibly due to some pre-hedging as well as the crude market turning lower. The wheat complex was the strength leader all day, ending with solid gains, but stayed within yesterday's ranges. 

Outside markets featured a return to strength in the equities which rallied on the Unemployment report that showed a surprise lack of job growth. Pre-report estimates were looking for the Non-farm payroll number to gain 85k jobs, but it actually showed a decline of 23k. It seems illogical for stocks to rally on such news, but the logic was that signs of a weaker economy lessens the odds of a Fed rate hike, and that was taken as a positive. The news rallied bonds (lower rates), which in turn knocked the Dollar Index sharply lower (which initially rallied grains somewhat, but they couldn't hold the strength). 

No solid news on the war front. Trump continues to claim that ongoing negotiations are getting close to an agreement, but there has been no confirmation of this from Iranian officials. He announced that he has held off on stepped up bombing "to give peace a chance, not because of dwindling weapon inventories". Crude oil traded as much as $1.48 higher but reversed to end moderately lower. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The major support at Dec corn's 50 day average at 458-459 continues to hold, and settled slightly above it. This will be an important pivot point over the next several days. Support below that should be seen 450-453 and 440. Resistance is seen at 466-468 and then 478-480. 

November beans also successfully defended their 50 day average at 1176, trading on both sides of it before closing right on it, also leaving that as a very important pivot point going forward. Support is seen at 1167-1170, and 1155-1157. Resistance is seen at 1180-1182, 1194, and 1205.

Today's rejection of three day highs is a disappointing technical performance, making the 50 day average support levels more important than ever to start next week and into Wednesday's S&D report.  

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread ended unchanged at 23 and remains trapped in a very narrow range, seemingly unaffected by any news so far. The bean spreads remained very flat as well, with the trade not concerned about any possible tightness or sudden escalation in Chinese buying interest. 

Weather: TStorm left global rating unchanged today with soybeans at Favorable and corn at Neutral. 

The forecast in the big picture remains hot and wet, with some concern still existing regarding North Dakota and western Nebraska, but fewer areas are presenting much concern. 

The big question remains how much damage the recently moderated heat might have done to corn during pollination. 

Here are TStorm's closing comments:

A "northwest flow" pattern dominates through next week, which is where heat in southern areas and coolness in northern areas causes the jet stream to flow from northwest to southeast through the central U.S. This setup will trigger t-storms in varying areas each day (starting tonight-tomorrow and especially Sun.-Mon.), though the exact setup cannot be determined. Nonetheless, fairly widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall is probable over the next 7 to 10 days from t-storms affecting different areas at different times.

The setup probably breaks down 7 to 10 days out as cooler air shifts further south, but a low to moderate chance exists for a system to drift inland from the Southwest Monsoon with additional rain (especially in the central Plains and western Corn Belt).

Here is this afternoon's NWS 8-14 day forecast:

Markets/Trading Implications

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Corn and beans seem content to trade sideways in advance of next Wednesday's Supply and Demand report (see average guesses below). Minor changes are expected, but there is big potential for surprises considering the less than ideal weather for much of the country and the fact that the weekly crop conditions good/excellent ratings are trailing last year's reading by 12 percentage points. The report is also likely to show some Planted Acreage adjustments. 

As we've discussed, we believe the downside is limited for the time being not only because of the still existent weather uncertainty, but also because the carryovers remain relatively snug and China remains a huge wild card. The scheduled September 24 visit of Chinese President Xi to Washington is also likely supportive as well because it seems unlikely that China would deliver negative trade news just before this meeting, leading many to think that China will finally drop their 10% tariff on US grain imports as a goodwill gesture before that meeting. 

We're glad to already be sitting at 40 percent or better for anyone who still needs bushels sold ahead of harvest, even though watching corn give back a quarter and beans give back roughly 70 cents in a week like this doesn't sit well for anybody. Every situation's a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

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• Waiting for more yield estimates over the next several days, and with August weather so critical for soybeans, it is the corn estimates that are likely to be the most influential to the market for now. 

• The Pacific ocean temps continue to rise at a faster than normal pace as we appear to be headed for a "Super El Nino" event, which would normally suggest some South American weather challenges. 

•  For the week, December corn slipped 2 cents, November beans lost 11 1/4 cents, and Chicago wheat gained a half cent. 

• Two flash sales announced this morning:  238 TMT of soybeans to China and 286 TMT of corn to Mexico. The sales pace of soybeans to China is lacking a bit for what is needed if they are going to hit 25 MMT by year's end. Counting sales to Unknown Destinations as sales to China, the weekly sales needed for the remainder of the year is about 31 million bushels a week...somewhat of a tall order it seems to us. 

Here are the average trade guesses for next Wednesday's S&D report. Those are some surprisingly wide ranges of guesses for the corn and soybean carryovers.

Very little changes are expected in the world numbers so we aren't including them in the table below. 

Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, August 4, indicated that actively traded funds bought 15k corn, thus increasing their net long to 182k. They sold 29k soybeans, reducing net longs to 125k contracts. They sold 17k wheat, increasing their net short to 24k.

• The drop in soybean net longs was a combination of reducing longs and adding to shorts, while the increase in corn's net long was primarily due to short covering.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn lost 15 cents, soybeans lost 32 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three market days since this report, corn slipped another 3 cents, soybeans 2 cents, and wheat gained 1 cent.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.