Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/06/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	439	+2 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	462	+2
Sep '26 Beans	1160	+3 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1177 3/4	+3
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	631 1/4	-11
Sept '26 KC Wheat	699 3/4	-13 3/4
Dec '26 Cotton	83.16	+0.14
Crude Oil (spot futures)	77.41	+2.19
US Dollar Index	99.81	+.26
Dow Jones	53978	-516

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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After a soft start, corn and beans both managed to firm in the last half of the session, ending with small gains and respecting support at their respective 50 day averages. Chicago wheat was just the opposite, starting with moderate gains but turned lower and struggled the rest of the day, ending with double digit losses, but also managed to finish above its key support.

Weather forecasts continue to be crop positive, and weekly exports were very poor for corn and beans, both coming in at crop year lows. However, attention is switching to the new crop year and those export numbers looked much better. In the meantime, the yield debate continues, and more private estimates are expected before next Wednesday's USDA Supply and Demand update which will feature revised yield estimates.

The Strait of Hormuz situation remains very uncertain but the latest report is that Iran and Oman reached a deal that will open the Strait, but the deal specifically excludes the US and any nation supporting US military actions....hence the positive turnaround and close in crude oil.  

Outside markets featured lower stocks on the heels of yesterday's strong rally, and higher crude oil as discussed above. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The major support at Dec corn's 50 day average at 458-459 held, and settled slightly above it. This will be an important pivot point over the next several days. Support below that should be seen 450-453 and 440. Resistance is seen at 466-468 and then 478-480. November beans also successfully defended their 50 day average at 1176, trading below if for much of the day, but managing to end a couple of cents above it, also leaving that as a very important pivot point going forward. Support is seen at 1167-1170, and 1155-1157. Resistance is seen at 1180-1182, 1194, and 1205. 

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread ended practically unchanged at 23 and remains trapped in a very narrow range, seemingly unaffected by any news so far. The bean spreads remained very flat as well, with the trade not concerned about any possible tightness or sudden escalation in Chinese buying interest. 

Weather: TStorm raised its soybean rating again today, now at Favorable, while corn remains at Neutral.  

The forecast in the big picture remains hot and wet, with some concern still existing regarding North Dakota and western Nebraska, but fewer areas are presenting much concern. 

The big question remains how much damage the recently moderated heat might have done to corn during pollination. 

Here are TStorm's closing comments:

More rain would be ideal with 46% and 45% of expected U.S. corn and soybean production drier than normal over the 30 days ending Tuesday. An average of the 00Z GFS and European ensembles show the next 14 days to be around #10 wettest of the last 48 years, which appears fairly reasonable and should stabilize soil moisture through mid-month.

Some rain continues into tomorrow in the southern eastern Corn Belt as a cool front passes, followed by some more t-storms Fri.-Sat when the next front passes. Thereafter, the central U.S. becomes divided by heat south and / or west and coolness north and / or east, which will cause periods of t-storms to unfold for at least 5 to 7 days starting / continuing Sat.-Sun. The exact timing and location of t-storm clusters cannot be determined with high accuracy, but probably start this weekend in / near parts of IL, IA, MN and WI.  

Markets/Trading Implications

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Repeating from yesterday: The supply side of the pricing equation has turned more bearish in recent days as temps have finally moderated somewhat and more rains appear likely. But big questions remain regarding corn yields, and with the carryover relatively tight (and lowered in the July S&D), along with continued excellent demand, there is little room for error and as such we see corn's downside risk in the near term as relatively low. 

Soybeans remain very much a work in progress with August weather so critical, but no big threats exist at the moment. The demand is the key question with China still being very secretive and non-committal with their plans. That lack of certainty is likely to continue, making August weather probably the most important variable in the near future. But with the scheduled Chinese visit to Washington on tap for September, we see their continued steady buying as likely to continue which should offset some possible weather related bearishness. 

We're glad to already be sitting at 40 percent or better for anyone who still needs bushels sold ahead of harvest, even though watching corn give back a quarter and beans give back roughly 70 cents in a week like this doesn't sit well for anybody. Every situation's a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

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• Waiting for more yield estimates over the next several days, and with August weather so critical for soybeans, it is the corn estimates that are likely to be the most influential to the market for now. 

• The Pacific ocean temps continue to rise at a faster than normal pace as we appear to be headed for a "Super El Nino" event, which would normally suggest some South American weather challenges. 

• Crude oil inventories continue to shrink and gasoline supplies are reported to be at the lowest level for this time of year since 2012. With today's announcement that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not include the US, more strength in crude oil seems likely. 

• The Black Sea region normally exports about 60 MMT of wheat and 30 MMT of corn annually. With Russia closing many of its export ports and traffic dropping fast due to the war escalation, it is believed that those export quantities will drop by at least a third if not half. It would seem that demand for US wheat would be on the rise, but the current thinking is that the displaced demand for Russian wheat will be satisfied by other countries first, but if the situation lasts another 3-4 weeks, it seems very probably that world buyers will be forced to knock on the US doors. 

Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 28, actively traded funds bought 75k corn, thus increasing their net long to 168k. They bought 30k soybeans, making them net long 155k contracts. They bought 12k wheat, reducing their net short to 7k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 5 1/4 cents, beans lost 2 3/4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 15 1/2 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 16 1/2 cents, beans lost 32 1/2 cents, and wheat lost 23 1/4 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.