Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 08/05/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	436 3/4	-5 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	460	-5 1/2
Sep '26 Beans	1156 1/2	-2 1/4
Nov '26 Beans	1174 33/4	-3
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	642 1/4	+3 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	713 1/2	+6 1/2
Dec '26 Cotton	83.02	+0.56
Crude Oil (spot futures)	75.31	-.46
US Dollar Index	99.54	-.20
Dow Jones	52,581	+313

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Corn and beans both started on a steady note last night, but quickly turned lower. December corn dipped to just shy of yesterday's low while November beans traded slightly below their low from yesterday, which was their lowest tick since their big rally day on July 6 (when they rallied 44 cents). By the close, corn firmed slightly, but November beans managed to make a new day session high, and both settled with moderate losses. 

Wheat continued to be supported by the shipping threats posed by the escalating Ukraine/Russia war, and at one point Chicago wheat had gained 14 cents. But in typical fashion, gains eroded and ended 10 cents off of session highs. 

The corn weakness was spurred on by a yield estimate from StoneX of 184.8, the highest estimate we've heard so far this year, and compares to the USDA trendline yield of 183.0. 

Their soybean estimate was 53.0, the same as USDA. 

Outside markets settled down a bit from yesterday's stellar gains, and are mixed as of 2:15, with the Dow continuing to rally to new all time highs. Crude oil ended moderately lower as Trump continues to insist that the Strait of Hormuz is about to open and that peace talks are progressing, both points which Iran has so far not acknowledged.               

Key Points/Developments:

, with the trade not concerned about any possible tightness or sudden escalation in Chinese buying interest. 

Weather: TStorm raised its soybean rating to Slightly Favorable, while corn remains at Neutral.  

The forecast in the big picture remains hot and wet, with some concern still existing regarding North Dakota and western Nebraska, but fewer areas are presenting much concern. 

The big question remains how much damage the recently moderated heat might have done to corn during pollination. 

Here are TStorms closing comments:Two cool fronts leave most of the central U.S. seasonable to cool through Fri.-Sat. Hot upper-level high pressure then emerges in the southern U.S. to turn some southern and / or western corn and soybeans hot from this weekend forward, but with waves of energy and / or cool fronts to move along its northern flank. This setup typically limits heat with northward extent, which is why we are forecasting some heat south / west, some coolness north and / east, and with most corn and soybeans in-between with seasonable 80s-90s / 50s-60s-70s most common.

Pockets of rain and t-storms focus within the southeast half of the Corn Belt through tomorrow, but especially over the next 12 to 24 hours from southeastern IA through near central and northern IL. Additional showers and t-storms follow for much of the same region Fri.-Sat. when a cool front passes. Then, waves of energy and / or cool fronts generate pockets of t-storms from Sat.-Sun. forward with the end result being for near-normal rainfall for most corn and soybeans, except probably: 1) wetter than normal in / near IL-IN-MO, 2) drier than normal in the mid-South, and with 3) rainfall unclear far north in / near ND.

Upcoming rain will (or is) diminish dryness in / near IL through tomorrow (and with some rain ahead for the dry area of / near northwest IA, though best rains are likely to focus east until sometime next week). 30-day U.S. corn and soybean dryness remain elevated at 41% and 40% of expected production (as of Tue.), but are probable to turn lower into mid-month.   

Markets/Trading Implications

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The supply side of the pricing equation has turned more bearish in recent days as temps have finally moderated somewhat and more rains appear likely. But as said above, big questions remain regarding corn yields, and with the carryover relatively tight (and lowered in the July S&D), along with continued excellent demand, there is little room for error and as such we see corn's downside risk in the near term as relatively low. 

Soybeans remain very much a work in progress with August weather so critical, but no big threats exist at the moment. The demand is the key question with China still being very secretive and non-committal with their plans. That lack of certainty is likely to continue, making August weather probably the most important variable in the near future. But with the scheduled Chinese visit to Washington on tap for September, we see their continued steady buying as likely to continue which should offset some possible weather related bearishness. 

We're glad to already be sitting at 40 percent or better for anyone who still needs bushels sold ahead of harvest, even though watching corn give back a quarter and beans give back roughly 70 cents in a week like this doesn't sit well for anybody. Every situation's a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

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• Waiting for more yield estimates over the next several days, and with August weather so critical for soybeans, it is the corn estimates that are likely to be the most influential to the market for now. 

• The Pacific ocean temps continue to rise at a faster than normal pace as we appear to be headed for a "Super El Nino" event, which would normally suggest some South American weather challenges. 

• Crude oil inventories continue to shrink and gasoline supplies are reported to be at the lowest level for this time of year since 2012. But for now, the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz is maintaining downward pressure on crude oil prices, not helping the corn and soybean oil markets. 

• Here are updated daily and weekly corn and soybean charts. 

Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 28, actively traded funds bought 75k corn, thus increasing their net long to 168k. They bought 30k soybeans, making them net long 155k contracts. They bought 12k wheat, reducing their net short to 7k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 5 1/4 cents, beans lost 2 3/4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 15 1/2 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 16 1/2 cents, beans lost 32 1/2 cents, and wheat lost 23 1/4 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.