Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/31/2026
- Taylor Pope
- Jul 30
- 5 min read
Contract | Close | Net Change |
Sept '26 Corn | 440 3/4 | -5 |
Dec '26 Corn | 464 | -4 1/2 |
Aug '26 Beans | 1172 | -5 1/4 |
Nov '26 Beans | 1187 1/2 | -1 1/4 |
Sept '26 Chi Wheat | 639 1/4 | -24 1/4 |
Sept '26 KC Wheat | 707 1/2 | -23 1/4 |
Dec '26 Cotton | 81.65 | +0.98 |
Aug '26 Crude Oil | 84.54 | +.95 |
US Dollar Index | 99.77 | -.12 |
Dow Jones | 52,635 | +255 |
Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.
Daily Glance commodity market
Corn, beans, and wheat all made new lows for the week again during the day session, but each found buying late and finished off its daily and weekly lows, beans turning the hardest with a jump of nearly 8 cents in the closing minutes. Wheat still led the way down on the day, as the bounce it got from the bombings earlier in the week faded completely. Exports remain poor and we are overpriced against world competitors, so funds have been lightening up into the weekend on both counts.
Today was also month end, and some of the flush we have seen all week is likely funds taking profit to square positions before the books close rather than any wholesale change in how they view this crop. The Commitment of Traders out this afternoon showed funds still adding length in corn, beans, and wheat although that was through Tuesday and obviously we were much lower since then.
Corn and soybean demand continues to hold up with another flash sale of the latter to China hitting the tape this morning and China kept shipping bushels out of its own reserves, both a positive for the export program even as prices fell. Volume has also thinned out considerably since midweek, which tends to exaggerate moves in either direction.
Outside markets stayed in the mix too, with crude running to a fresh high on the war, up about a dollar, while equities kept whipsawing without much of a clear direction.
Key Points/Developments:
Technicals: Dec corn lost another 4 1/2 cents to 464, extending the slide and leaving the 457 support we flagged yesterday as the next level in view. Resistance comes back in at 474, then the low 480s, then 490 and the spring high near 500.
Nov beans gave up another 1 1/4 to 1187 1/2, still wedged between the 1190 area above and 1186 just underneath. A break below there opens 1175, with 1162 remaining the more critical support in our eyes. Resistance still runs through the 1204 to 1210 gap, then 1231, then the 2024 high near 1257.
Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread widened out to 23 1/4 cents from 22 3/4 yesterday. The Aug/Nov bean spread widened to 15 1/2 cents from 11 1/2, new crop holding up better than old crop today.
Weather: TStorm left its ratings unchanged again today, corn, soybeans, and winter wheat all still Neutral.
Rain and thunderstorms move across the Corn Belt and Kentucky into the weekend, with the best totals from Minnesota through northeast Iowa and into much of Illinois and Indiana, while other areas stay fairly dry. A brief shot of heat crosses the northwest half of the belt around Monday ahead of a cool front, then temperatures run near or slightly below normal into next week. From there, the outlook turns more mixed, with roughly a quarter of the crop seeing heat, a quarter seeing coolness, and the rest in the 80s to 90s, along with another half inch to an inch of rain expected into the second week of August.
Markets/Trading Implications
TStorm's YieldCast still has corn near 182 and beans near 52, and with all of August still out ahead of us to move that number, we don't think the carryover picture has actually loosened enough this week to justify a slide of this size. With volume as thin as it's been, it doesn't take much fund selling to push things around, and this has more the feel of funds flushing out the last of their built up length than the market pricing in a genuinely bigger crop.
We're glad to already be sitting at 40 percent or better for anyone who still needs bushels sold ahead of harvest, even though watching corn give back a quarter and beans give back roughly 70 cents in a week like this doesn't sit well for anybody. Every situation's a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.
Other Notes
Ukraine is set to submit proposals to Zelenskyy next week to diversify its grain export routes, and some grain is already moving out into the Mid East through Russia's Novorossiysk facility. There is still no real sign of Russia Ukraine diplomacy though, and Russia's Azov Sea shipping remains halted, so that geopolitical premium keeps getting added and subtracted on a weekly basis in both wheat and crude.
French corn ratings fell for a seventh straight week, now the lowest they have been in 15 years, and the EU corn crop estimate was cut again to 51.9 million metric tons, 14 percent below last year. Tightening supply overseas is a contrast to the pressure we are seeing here at home.
China's Sinograin bought about half the soybeans offered at this week's auction, with another 500,000 metric ton auction set for next Friday. Exporters have also sold 252,000 metric tons of new crop beans to unknown destinations, and since Monday, 642,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans have gone to China and unknown combined.
For the week, Dec corn lost 23 1/2 cents, Nov beans lost 66 cents, Sep Chicago wheat lost 38 3/4 cents, and Dec cotton gained 1.67.
December cotton futures caused some sweat this week with what was ultimately a slow climb to finish at 81.65, up 122 pts for the week putting July up 522 pts for the month.
The low for the week was 79.26, firming support at 79. According to USDA AMS, spot quotations for base quality were 31 points higher compared to last week. Base quality averaged 73.70, whereas this time last year it was 63.72.
Spot trading in the Southeast was inactive though supplies and demand stay moderate.
Weather has remained good in the Southeast, making up for some of the dryness with parts of NC seeing 3-5 inches of moisture in the past week.
We gained 215 pts on the week and are about a full cent above the 10 day moving average. The December-March spread is slightly down but held steady with a current carry of 158 points.
Static Notes
Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 28, actively traded funds bought 75k corn, thus increasing their net long to 168k. They bought 30k soybeans, making them net long 155k contracts. They bought 12k wheat, reducing their net short to 7k.
In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 5 1/4 cents, beans lost 2 3/4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 15 1/2 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 16 1/2 cents, beans lost 32 1/2 cents, and wheat lost 23 1/4 cents.
Have a nice evening!
Clayton and Taylor
The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market
commodity market
Crop Year | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 |
Corn | 90% | 40% | 0% |
Soybeans | 95% | 40% | 0% |
Wheat | 100% | 40% | 0% |
RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
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