Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/30/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	445 3/4	-3 1/4
Dec '26 Corn	468 1/2	-3 1/4
Aug '26 Beans	1177 1/4	-0 3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1188 3/4	-4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	663 1/2	+2 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	730 3/4	+5 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	80.72	+1.05
Aug '26 Crude Oil	83.59	-.87
US Dollar Index	99.82	-.87
Dow Jones	52,380	+615

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Wheat surged overnight after one of Ukraine's key grain ports, Odessa, was bombed, and that strength helped pull corn and beans off the fresh lows they had made for the week overnight. Solid export sales added to that with corn and beans jumping further on the day session open, but the selling quickly resumed, pushing each lower by the end of the day.

Outside markets were just as volatile. Crude ran to a new high overnight after a couple of American servicemen were killed in Jordan in an Iranian drone strike, with fresh threats and retaliatory bombing following, though it has since backed off and traded lower today. Equities remain on a genuine whipsaw too, the Dow down 1,000 points yesterday after the Fed held rates steady, and the Nasdaq trading in a 1,000 point range of its own today.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn eased to 468 1/2 today, after closing its two week gap earlier in the session. Resistance sits at 474 next, then the low 480s, then 490 and the spring high near 500. Support below todays low is near 457.

Nov beans slipped to 1188 3/4, right between the 1190 support area and the next level down at 1186. Below that, 1175 comes into play, with 1162 remaining the more critical support in our eyes. Resistance now runs back through the 1204 to 1210 gap, then 1231, then that 2024 high near 1257.

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread held exactly steady at 22 3/4 cents, unchanged from yesterday. The Aug/Nov bean spread narrowed back in to 11 1/2 cents, from 14 3/4 yesterday, old crop holding up a bit better than new crop today.

Weather: TStorm upgraded corn to Neutral this morning, while soybeans and winter wheat both held at Neutral as well, unchanged. They still call the rain event probable but not guaranteed, wanting to see it verify given how elevated both the 15 and 30 day dryness readings remain.

A strong system moving through South Dakota today works across the Corn Belt into Saturday, bringing moderate to locally heavy rain and thunderstorms to most of the corn and soybean crop, with dry and seasonably cool weather following behind it into early next week. From there, attention shifts to the first days of August, when a mix of heat to the south and west and cooler air to the north and east looks likely, with some thunderstorm chances but no heavy rain currently expected.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Similar tone all week with fund managers lightening up amid a less threatening forecast.

Considering both wars are running at full speed, and our belief that ending stocks remain tight enough that the extended forecast is still plenty threatening, we have to think the downside is limited for the time being.and wouldn't advise chasing any cash sales.

Other Notes

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• Ukraine struck a major Russian grain export terminal overnight in the Taman port on the Kerch Strait, causing significant damage to loadout and storage capability. That single terminal handles more than 5 million metric tons of annual export capacity, a real hit to Russia's position heading into the new crop year. Ukraine also claims to have hit several vessels in the Black Sea, likely pushing more shipowners to avoid the region on war risk alone.

• Export sales for the week ending July 23 came in well ahead of the prior week for both crops, corn at 56 million bushels versus 41 million, and beans at 60 million versus 58 million. China secured 19 million bushels of new crop soybeans last week and was reported back in the market for a couple more cargoes this morning, easing some of the concern around its recent absence.

• Old crop corn export commitments are now running 23 percent ahead of last year and already above the USDA's full year forecast, while new crop soybean commitments are up 145 percent year over year, the strongest pace for this point in the summer since 2022.

Static Notes

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•  Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 21, actively traded funds bought 50k corn, thus increasing their net long to 93k. They bought 52k soybeans, making them net long 125k contracts. They bought 17k wheat, reducing their net short to 19k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 15 1/2 cents, beans gained nearly 32 cents, and Chicago wheat gained almost 34 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 11 3/4 cents, beans gained 31 cents, and wheat was flat.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.