Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/29/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	449	-9 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	471 3/4	-8 3/4
Aug '26 Beans	1178	-34
Nov '26 Beans	1192 3/4	-27 1/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	660 3/4	-1 3/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	725 1/2	-0 3/4
Dec '26 Cotton	79.67	-0.86
Aug '26 Crude Oil	84.91	+5.66
US Dollar Index	100.79	-0.48
Dow Jones	51,800	-1,157

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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It was another leg of the same volatile week today, corn and beans erasing all of yesterday's bounce and then some, both closing below Monday's levels to fresh lows for the week as the forecast keeps looking a little less threatening heading into August and continues to pull premium out of the market. Beans led the way lower, closing the gap that had been open since July 19th, while corn broke to a fresh low of its own late in the session before settling just above it. Wheat was the quiet one, finishing little changed.

Crude jumped sharply on renewed Iran tensions and fresh threats to the Strait of Hormuz, but corn and beans shrugged it off entirely.

The bigger story was outside markets. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, and with the market apparently pricing in a rise, stocks initially rallied hard on the news before reversing just as fast, selling off to fresh lows on the day, the Dow tumbling well over a thousand points.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn continued its intraweek slide today and is now a good 20 cents off last weeks high. Resistance now sits at 474, then the low 480s, then 490 and the spring high near 500. Support remains that 468 gap, then 457 underneath.

Nov beans fell to 1192 3/4, closing the 1204 to 1210 gap in the process. That gap now becomes resistance next, then 1231, then that 2024 high near 1257. Support underneath now sits around 1186 and then 1175. 1162 area is critical support in our eyes.

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread held essentially steady at 22 3/4 cents, from 22 yesterday. The Aug/Nov bean spread widened out sharply to 14 3/4 cents, from 8 yesterday, new crop continuing to gain ground on old crop.

Weather: TStorm upgraded soybeans to Neutral this morning, the second upgrade for the crop in the last several days, while corn held at Slightly Unfavorable and winter wheat stayed Neutral. Their own language is still a bit cautious even with the improvement, noting the corn and soybean outlooks remain unfavorable overall given how dry the last two to four weeks have been, and that the rain coming still needs to verify.

A system forms in South Dakota Thursday and works through the Corn Belt Friday and Saturday, expected to deliver one to two inches north and a half inch to an inch and a half south, breaking the heat in the west while keeping the east mild. From there, attention shifts to whether hot weather returns to the southern US in the second week of August, though they are not committed to that outcome yet.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Bulls were probably getting a little over their skis last week, and this week's flush has likely put a good bit of that in check. TStorm's downgraded yield, and the hypothetical ending stocks figure that comes with it, near 240 million bushels in beans and around 1.7 billion in corn, tell us there just is not much room left for this crop to keep slipping. Even with decent rain on the way, that kind of thin cushion does not leave much margin for error the rest of the way.

With the GFS still the more threatening read of the two models, we have a hard time believing this market keeps falling the way it has this week. We are not alone in that view either, between shrinking Black Sea supply, tightening biofuel demand, and an energy market that is staying jumpy, there is no shortage of reasons this could turn around quickly if the weather does not fully cooperate.

We issued that old crop sale last week for this very reason, and remain comfortable sitting at 40 percent on new crop, holding tight here.

Other Notes

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• Three of Russia's major grain export terminals are now restricting truck intake as Ukraine keeps targeting port infrastructure, with the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea shut down entirely, a corridor that normally handles over half of Russia's annual grain trade. Ukraine's own ports are running under half capacity too, as shippers stay wary of the war risk.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard hit a US air base in Jordan overnight and claimed strikes on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a US response and sending crude sharply higher. There is still real doubt over whether this ends diplomatically anytime soon.

• Here is a look at the latest GFS maps which certainly remain hot and dry into mid August.

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Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 21, actively traded funds bought 50k corn, thus increasing their net long to 93k. They bought 52k soybeans, making them net long 125k contracts. They bought 17k wheat, reducing their net short to 19k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 15 1/2 cents, beans gained nearly 32 cents, and Chicago wheat gained almost 34 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 11 3/4 cents, beans gained 31 cents, and wheat was flat.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.