Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/28/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	458 1/2	+6 3/4
Dec '26 Corn	480 1/2	+6 1/2
Aug '26 Beans	1212	+3 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1220	+6 1/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	662 1/2	+2 1/2
Sept '26 KC Wheat	726 1/4	-2 3/4
Dec '26 Cotton	80.62	-0.26
Crude Oil (spot futures)	79.26	-3.35
US Dollar Index	101.28	-0.11
Dow Jones	52,944	+562

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Corn had a surprisingly quiet open following the big cut in crop condition ratings, the largest week over week cut in nearly 20 years, before getting going early this morning and eventually trading 13 cents off yesterday's low, fading a bit into the close. It was an inside day, meaning the whole session stayed within yesterday's range.

Beans and wheat each opened lower but rallied through the session to close with gains too. It was a nice recovery effort overall, but Nov beans are still down more than 30 cents on the week and December corn about 7 cents, so there is certainly more work to do.

TStorm's crop ratings stayed the same, still Slightly Unfavorable on corn and beans and Neutral on winter wheat, with most of today's updates looking a little less threatening. Worth noting they lean more on the European model than the GFS, and it is the GFS reading that is currently the more threatening of the two.

Following yesterday's report that China was unhappy with the latest tariff announcement, a bit more positive light came through today, with talk of both sides possibly cutting tariffs ahead of the September meeting between Trump and Xi.

Outside markets were the more volatile story, crude sliding again, the Dow jumping aggressively for a second day, and the Nasdaq continuing to slide.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn worked back into the low 480s we had been watching, settling at 480 1/2 today. That puts 490, then the spring high near 500 back in view up top, while support now sits at 474, then the 468 to 470 gap, then 457.

Nov beans reclaimed some ground too, settling at 1220 and back above the 1204 to 1210 gap. Resistance sits at 1231 next, then that 2024 high near 1257, while support underneath now runs 1210, then around 1190.

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread held essentially steady at 22 cents, from 22 1/4 yesterday. The Aug/Nov bean spread widened out to 8 cents, from 5 1/4 yesterday, new crop gaining back on old crop.

Weather: TStorm left its ratings unchanged today, corn and soybeans both still Slightly Unfavorable and winter wheat still Neutral, and today's model runs skewed a bit friendlier overall. Worth remembering TStorm leans more on the European model, which has been the friendlier read lately, while the GFS is currently the more threatening one. Their own data shows the highest 15 day dryness coverage for this date in 48 years, and they specifically tied this week's crop condition drop to that unfavorable drying and heat.

Markets/Trading Implications

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A nice day overall, especially considering the selling we saw to start the week. Considering the wetter European forecast, we have a hard time thinking the market can continue to surge in the coming days, but our overall opinion remains the same, that we should see support below this week's lows outside of any sort of major weather shift.

The tariff talk is the one thing that could shift our thinking if it turns into something real. A genuine cut on both sides ahead of the September meeting would be a good reason to get more constructive on demand, but we are not there yet.

We will see how the rest of the week plays out!

Other Notes

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• State level crop conditions were rough in spots, North Carolina and Colorado both at 41 percent poor or very poor, South Dakota at 23 percent, North Dakota 18 percent, and Kansas 17 percent.

• The EU corn crop estimate took another hit, cut to 45.6 million tons from 56.8 million last year, a 20 percent drop, as Europe deals with its worst drought in decades.

• Russia is reportedly considering putting military escorts on its grain vessels to protect them from attack, while Trump and Zelensky were set to meet today specifically over the Black Sea situation.

  
  

Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 21, actively traded funds bought 50k corn, thus increasing their net long to 93k. They bought 52k soybeans, making them net long 125k contracts. They bought 17k wheat, reducing their net short to 19k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 15 1/2 cents, beans gained nearly 32 cents, and Chicago wheat gained almost 34 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 11 3/4 cents, beans gained 31 cents, and wheat was flat.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.