Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/27/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	451 3/4	-12 1/2
Dec '26 Corn	474	-13 1/2
Aug '26 Beans	1208 1/2	-39 1/2
Nov '26 Beans	1213 3/4	-39 3/4
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	660	-18
Sept '26 KC Wheat	729	-16 1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	80.72	+0.74
Aug '26 Crude Oil	91.92	-0.86
US Dollar Index	101.37	+0.07
Dow Jones	52,389	+305

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Grains gave back a good chunk of last week's gains today, soybeans leading the way lower, corn following behind, and wheat succumbing late after trying to stay bid early in the session on continued Black Sea bombing. Soybeans alone fell nearly 40 cents, wiping out all but about 9 cents of last week's gains.

Markets looked as threatening as ever heading into Friday's close, but that shifted some over the weekend, with the top end heat backing off a touch and a little more rain finding its way into the forecast. TStorm actually upgraded both corn and soybeans back to Slightly Unfavorable this morning as a result.

That combined with an 8 percent drop in crude on reports of advancing Iran negotiations, plus China showing some frustration over the latest round of tariffs, and it was enough to get the selling going in a hurry. The corn weakness caught us a little off guard, but it looked like more of a broad risk off day than anything specific to corn, with funds apparently willing to shed length there too.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn broke back below the low 480s support we had been watching, settling at 474 today. That puts the 468 to 470 gap back in play as the next test, then 457 underneath, while resistance now sits back up in the low 480s, then 490 and the spring high near 500.

Nov beans gave up the 2022 contract high we had flagged, settling at 1213 3/4 and back below the 1231 zone. Support sits at the 1204 to 1210 gap next, then around 1190, while resistance now runs back through 1231, then that 2024 high near 1257.

Spreads: The Dec/Sep corn spread narrowed a bit to 22 1/4 cents, from 23 1/2 last week. The Aug/Nov bean spread also narrowed, down to 5 1/4 cents from 6 1/4.

Weather: TStorm upgraded both corn and soybeans back to Slightly Unfavorable this morning, a notch better than where they sat Friday, while winter wheat stayed Neutral. Their own read is that this is a real but uncertain improvement, based on one model's take on a system that could bring some rain later this week, and they are not fully committed to it yet. The forecast still calls for heat across the Plains and western Corn Belt through midweek before that system arrives, with over three quarters of the corn crop drier than normal over the last two weeks by TStorm's own numbers.

Markets/Trading Implications

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The volatility around these weather market weekends is exactly what we were warning about last week, and it is part of why we made that old crop cash sale when we did.

Not much actually changed on the fundamental side today, though. Iran said it would pause if the US does too, but the Strait of Hormuz is still down to 1 to 3 vessels a day and the Houthis opened a new front in the Red Sea the same day, so we would not call that settled. The Black Sea situation and the EU heat wave are no better either, with another round of well over 100 degree heat forecast there over the next two weeks.

With the forecast still far from perfect (see below) and technical support sitting just below today's closes, we have a hard time thinking this kind of aggressive selling continues from here. Plus, as we have mentioned with soybeans specifically, TStorms yield was already below the USDA before this heat spell even began, thus its very hard for us to believe that the crop has/could suddenly get that much better to warrant a 40 cent move lower.

We are not making any changes today, even with the selloff, sitting where we are on both old and new crop. Every situation is a little different, so give us a call and we can talk through where you stand.

Other Notes

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• China confirmed two more purchases today, 132,000 metric tons of soybeans direct and another 126,000 to an unknown destination believed to also be China. No corn or wheat sales were announced.

• Export inspections for the week ending July 23 came in at 58.6 million bushels of corn, 12.8 million soybeans, and 14.5 million wheat. Marketing year to date, corn inspections are running about 590 million bushels ahead of last year.

Here is a look at this afternoon's GFS run where you can see a hot and dry forecasted is certainly still expected.

Static Notes

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• Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, July 21, actively traded funds bought 50k corn, thus increasing their net long to 93k. They bought 52k soybeans, making them net long 125k contracts. They bought 17k wheat, reducing their net short to 19k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 15 1/2 cents, beans gained nearly 32 cents, and Chicago wheat gained almost 34 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 11 3/4 cents, beans gained 31 cents, and wheat was flat.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	90%	40%	0%
Soybeans	95%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	40%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.