Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 07/02/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Sept '26 Corn	423	+1/4
Dec '26 Corn	441 1/2	-3/4
Aug '26 Beans	1136 1/4	+3/4
Nov '26 Beans	1147 3/4	-1/2
Sept '26 Chi Wheat	599 3/4	-1/4
Sept '26 KC Wheat	638 1/2	+3/4
Sept '26 MN Wheat	618 3/4	+1/4
Dec '26 Cotton	77.11	-0.73
Aug '26 Crude Oil	68.48	-0.10
US Dollar Index	100.630	-0.525
Dow Jones	53,157	+489

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Our markets opened higher again but couldn't hold it, fading through the session to finish off their highs. After the steady run of buying since Tuesday's report, today had more of a tired, position squaring feel to it ahead of the long weekend.

The story hasn't really changed from yesterday. The absence of any real bearish surprise in the reports left the bears without new fuel, and the market has kept leaning on the bullish arguments it spent so long ignoring, strong corn export demand, firm bean crush, weather uncertainty, and the EU heat and drought pressing on corn over there.

Corn finished about flat on the week, but that undersells things given it had climbed back a good sixteen cents off the low it made just ahead of the report. Beans held up on the nearby, with the calendar spreads firming as the front month gained on new crop.

Crude slipped again, but rallied well off its fresh low, the dollar dropped hard on a weak June jobs number, and the Dow pushed higher.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Dec corn should see support 434, 430, then at 422  Resistance now seen at 444-446, 452, and its 50 day average at 470. A bullish doji candle was formed on the weekly chart meaning it made a fresh contract low early in the week only to closed unchanged. As always, follow through will be key.

As for November Beans, major support is at 1135-1139, and then 1118 and 1105 , with resistance near this week's high of 1161, their 50 day average at 1166, and then near 1170-1180. 

Weather:  TStorm left ratings unchanged again today, holding corn and beans at Slightly Unfavorable and winter wheat at Neutral, though they hinted rainfall estimates may need to come up. Heat hangs on for another two to three days with heavy storm clusters near and north of I-80, then scattered storms move through Saturday and Sunday as a cool front passes. Next week looks near normal across most of the corn and beans, with the northwest third and spring wheat catching the warmth. The pattern to watch sets up around July 12, when a hot upper level high tries to build over the central US, though TStorm still leans toward a cool front knocking it back and keeping things seasonable, a 60/40 call with heat the lesser odds for now. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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The bigger picture we've been building toward is starting to show up in the price action. With the reports out of the way and no bearish bomb inside them, the trend looks to be shifting from lower to at least sideways, and that matters most for which arguments the market decides to hear. It spent weeks tuning out anything constructive, but as the charts have improved it has finally started giving weight to the bullish factors that were sitting there all along.

On corn, the weekly reversal is doing real work, and the low set just ahead of the report is now looking like a seasonal bottom. Funds have covered enough to sit near flat or only modestly short, which cuts both ways, it leaves them plenty of room to press again if the weather breaks cooler, but it also means they're no longer leaning on the board the way they had been. As we've said for a few weeks running, given where the fundamentals and weather sit, we'd have to think they're reluctant to build out a big short from here.

Beans have leaned on the nearby, with the crush story firm underneath and China still lurking as the piece that could validate the whole thing if they ever step up in size. New crop has more to prove, and that one hinges on August weather more than anything happening now.

It's another big weather weekend, and admittedly for a strong rally right out of the gate Sunday night we'd probably need to see some heat and dryness work its way back into the midweek forecast. Beyond that the pattern stays threatening, and paired with how wet June was, there's more than enough to argue over on where the national yield really sits against the USDA's 183. We wouldn't be chasing new sales into the weekend with that debate still wide open.

Other Notes

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• For the week, December corn was flat, November soybeans were down 8 cents, September wheat was up 10 cents, and December cotton was up 74 cents. Keep in mind that November soybeans closed near their weekly high tick last week.

• Commitment of Traders info will be updated on Monday due to the holiday weekend.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 23 showed actively traded funds sold a net 23k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 70k. They sold 16k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 37k, and sold 1k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 71k.

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 4 cents, July beans lost 13 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 9 cents. In the three days since this report, corn gained 3 cents, soybeans gained 9 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 11 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.