Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/22/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	411 1/2	-6
Corn Dec '26	439 1/2	-4 1/2
Beans July '26	1115 3/4	-7
Beans Nov '26	1141 12	-1 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	597 1/2	-8 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	633 1/2	-10 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	612 1/4	-10 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	79.41	-.38
Crude Oil June '26	73.76	-2.09
US Dollar Index	100.79	+0.17
Dow Jones	51712	+148

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Once again, we saw a firm start in all three of our markets evaporate as the close approached, with settlements for all three at session lows. Trade was extremely choppy all day, but the ovverriding theme for the day session appeared to be more fund selling. A weaker crude oil market can be blamed for some of this selling pressure, but besides that it appeared to be chart based technical selling by the funds that added to the negative tone.

Oddly enough the soybean oil market was the only positive performer for our markets, despite the weaker crude oil market as bean oil continued to reject what for so long was a positive correlation with crude. The offsetting supportive factor for bean oil was the mechanics of the RIN program which was boosted by increased demand for green biofuel demand.

Outside markets saw even choppier action than the grains as they tried to keep up with the latest news reports (valid or otherwise) regarding the US/Iran/Israel war as well as the continuing Ukraine/Russia war. A constant stream of news from the front of the Iran war caused numerous runs one way and then the other in both stocks and crude, but by the end of the day reports were that some kind of agreement for a ceasefire has once again been met and that traffic through the Straits of Hormuz is increasing. This was seen as bearish crude oil and was initially seen as bullish stocks, but stocks turned mixed by the close. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: More resistance continues to unfold as corn continues to slide. We now see some at 414-415 as well as above in the 422-424 area, and support remains at 411 and 405.

As for July beans, the support at 1120 failed to hold and we now some at today's low of 1115 and then 1108 and 1094.Resistance at 1122-1124 and 1140-1142. 

Spreads: The July/November carry continued to increase today, closing at a new high carry of 25 3/4 as the trade senses old crop is running out of time to be rescued by any significant increase in Chinese purchases. With First Notice Day for the July contract coming up fast (next Tuesday), the focus will soon be on the August/November spread.

The July/Dec corn spread also widened today, closing at 28 cents, approaching its widest close at 29 1/2 last week. This spread has continued to remain historically weak despite strong export demand as the trade sees carryover levels as more than adequate in spite of the decent demand.   

Weather: TStorm lowered global assessments for both corn and soybeans to Neutral on account of continued drought in the EU (affecting corn and wheat) and some excessive rain amounts in the US for both corn and beans.  .

As for the US forecast, here is their late Summary for today:

Coolness prevails for 5 more days, accompanied by some areas of rain and t-storms -- especially within the southern half of the central U.S. from exiting t-storms today and an area of rain Thu.-Fri.

Temperatures soar Sat.-Mon. in response to a large system in the West, which will trigger scattered to heavy t-storms within the northern half of the central U.S. as heat expands. At least the first half of next week will be very warm and hot within a wide area, but the location of upper-level high pressure becomes unclear with time.

The most likely scenario is for the high to leave at least half of corn and soybeans warmer to much-warmer than normal one to two weeks out (with less rain from a weaker jet stream), but with some t-storms in northern and / or eastern areas to help a cool front to pass at some point within the first week of July. If correct, then some cooling unfolds later next week or next weekend in at least eastern areas, but the high will be near-enough to need to continue to be monitored. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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More disappointing action yet there continues to be news items that are seemingly price friendly, at least potentially. But with the funds in sell mode, such news can easily be ignored by the markets as we all know all too well. 

For one thing with the recent declines it leaves prices with extremely little risk premium especially considering the calendar and the fact that there is plenty of time for some degree of weather concerns to pop up.

And another seemingly supportive factor is the ever present China question--if and when they will finally step forward and eliminate their existing 10% tariffs on US corn, beans, and wheat and actually make good on the alleged (alleged by US officials, but still to be acknowledged by China) promises to buy significantly more US ag production.

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Another potentially bullish factor is the increased war turmoil that Ukraine is inflicting on Russia, and to a lesser extent, vice versa. Many reports describe a very battered Russia (much more than the US press is reporting) where there are now very serious fuel shortages and domestic turmoil (particularly in Russia). It seems to us that at some point this situation could be seen as possibly crippling their ability to harvest and ship their ag production, but so far that has not concerned our markets (would chiefly affect wheat, then corn). 

Today's Crop Condition report indicated that both corn and soybeans conditions were left unchanged despite pre-report expectations that they both would decline by 1-3% good/excellent. 

President Trump made a late announcement this afternoon that some of Iran's frozen funds will be used by Iran to purchase US ag production, but this was quickly denied by Iranian sources. 

Static Notes

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• The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 16 showed actively traded funds sold a net 41k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 46k. They sold 38k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 53k, and bought 10k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 70k.

• In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 6 cents, July beans gained 16 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 11 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 2 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gained another 2 cents.  

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.