Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/17/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	421	+7 1/4
Corn Dec '26	448 3/4	+6 1/2
Beans July '26	1132	+2
Beans Nov '26	1149 1/4	+2 3/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	612 3/4	+16 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	652 1/2	+18 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	625 1/2	+13 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	79.77	+2.02
Crude Oil June '26	75.75	-0.30
US Dollar Index	100.020	+0.700
Dow Jones	52,320	-150

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

---

Despite the disappointing closes yesterday, markets opened mostly firm and saw continued buying overnight into the day session. As we mentioned on the voiceblast, the intraday high in beans was made before the flash sale was announced, which is typical fund manager fashion given how aggressively the market had already rallied on the rumor.

The biggest plus on the day was a rumor that China was shopping around for both US corn and wheat. That added another layer of support, with each making new highs for the week and their strongest closes since early June.

As for the flash sale itself, it was 372,000 metric tons, primarily new crop. Insiders reported there were more sales today as well.

Crude oil rallied overnight on reports that Israel was again striking Lebanon, but the move did not hold. Trump worked to calm things, saying a deal would be signed in the next couple of days, while still leaving the door open that he would not hesitate to act if things got out of hand.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: July corn was firm from the get go and eventually closed at its highest level this week. It again ran into resistance below the 424 area, but with closing near its highs, gives it a real chance of testing it again this week. Support nearby is at 411, 405 and then 397.

July soybeans powered through our 1120 resistance yesterday and after retesting just above that later in the day, managed to firm today to a new high, but again lost steam. The 1137/200 day moving average area is becoming strong resistance for the time being. Resistance above there is at 1147 and 1158. 1120 is the key support level and an area we don't want to see consecutive closes under.

Spreads: The July/November carry has had trouble getting going even with the Chinese purchases due to the majority of sales coming in new crop. Historically, however, old crop leads the way still even with a new crop buying program. It closed today near 17 and Its recent low is near 21.

The July/Dec corn spread made a new low at 29 1/2, but fimred on the Chinese buying rumors to close near 28. This level represents a good limited risk buy in our opinion, because that inter-crop year spread very rarely trades this wide. There are two potential bullish items that could tighten it in our opinion--very strong farmer holding at these very low prices, and the possibility that China finally steps in and makes some corn purchases.  

Weather: TStorm left both corn and soybeans at Slightly Favorable today, with winter wheat held at Neutral.

The main storm track stays parked across the heart of the central US through the end of the month and possibly into early July, which keeps systems and cool fronts riding through with rounds of rain and storms hitting varying areas at varying times. That setup keeps totals near to above normal across a wide stretch of the corn, bean, and spring wheat belt.

A few of those clusters could turn strong to severe, with this weekend looking like the next window and today's event probably near its peak right now. With a wide area already running normal to wet the last 30 days and more rain ongoing and still ahead, the potential for field and river flooding builds from here.

Markets/Trading Implications

---

Similar tone to yesterday in beans, where the close was admittedly a bit disappointing, but the news of the flash sale and rumored more on the way is a big plus and the nearby technical picture still points to more strength. Our guess is weakness toward 1120 gets bought for the time being. If we get a sudden run above 1145 we would likely push an old crop cash sale, as there is a lot of risk heading into the June 30th report.

The Chinese purchases were a great start, but we need to start seeing a consistent stream, especially with US beans cheaper than Brazil this fall and China supposedly committed to 25 million metric tons this growing season.

Corn was a nice surprise given its poor close yesterday. As mentioned on the voiceblast, if China started a corn buying program it would go a long way given the tightening ending stocks amid an already strong export program. Follow through strength is key here, especially above 4.24, which is both where the bullish divergence would be confirmed and the high from when funds flipped short last week.

Other Notes

---

• Tstorm ran a study comparing this year's early weather setup to past analog years, and the results point to a big crop likely getting bigger. The historical comparisons suggest mostly non-threatening situations once these initial patterns are in place, which would put corn somewhere in the 185 to 193 range against the USDA's current 183. Beans came out similar, with the study suggesting 53 to 55 versus the USDA at 53, and 1993 the only really poor year in the set, knocked down by a once-in-a-century flood.

• Worth keeping in mind the study stopped short of factoring in August rainfall and temperatures, since those weren't part of what was presented, so there's still a good chunk of the growing season left for the weather to turn.

• Here is a look at a daily at July soybeans. The red arrows are our last few sales for reference. Support is near 12.20 while resistance is near the high from the last couple days (200 day MA). Above there we would target 11.40-11.60

• 

Here is July corn where you can too see our last few sales. Support is near todays low of 4.11 while resistance is at 4.24. Above that we resistance comes in at 4.31 and 4.40. The 50 and 200 day Moving averages are all the way up near 4.53.

Static Notes

---

The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 2 showed actively traded funds sold a net 90k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 115k. They sold 34k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 156k, and sold 39k Chicago wheat, pushing net shorts up to 58k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 21 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 33 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 23 cents, soybeans lost another 44 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 23 cents. This all suggests that funds are likely near flat in corn, which is pretty remarkable considering where they were just a handful of weeks ago.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.