Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/10/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	419	- 1/2
Corn Dec '26	446 3/4	+1 1/2
Beans July '26	1123	+9 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1138 1/2	+6 1/2
Wheat-Chi July '26	587 1/2	+2 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	630 1/2	- 1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	618	+ 1/2
Cotton Dec '26	75.30	unchanged
Crude Oil June '26	90.16	+1.96
US Dollar Index	99.92	+.03
Dow Jones	49916	-956

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Frustrating day where we saw decent gains in the night session, and even into the start of the day session, but once again, the peak gains eroded as the day wore on. 

At their highs, July corn reached +6, July beans +16, and July Chicago wheat +15, but once the day session got underway, prices slowly drifted lower although most contracts ended with gains, especially soybeans. 

Crude oil rallied on news that the US resumed bombing of Iran in response to the reported downing on a US Apache helicopter, and this was partially responsible for the strength in our markets. But crude peaked mid-morning with a gain of $3.64 and its gains also eroded into the grain close at which point is was about $2 higher, and this was no doubt a factor with the grains backing off. Another factor was some short covering in front of tomorrow's June USDA Supply and Demand report.  Little changes are expected, but the wheat production numbers probably hold the biggest potential for a market reaction. 

Stocks were sharply lower. The CPI inflation barometer indicated a year over year rate of 4.2%, it's highest reading since April 2023. 

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Little change in the technical picture for corn, with continued resistance showing at today's high of 426, and then at 440 and 455. We see the 410-415 area as nearby support while longer term support sits just below 400.   

The selling in July soybeans has certainly slowed and thus there is major bullish divergence brewing. As said yesterday, we needed a lasting move above 1121 for that to take shape, and today did manage to settle just above that level, at 1123. Resistance is seen at today's high near 1130, then 1135 and 1160. Support is seen at 1110-1113, just above 1100 and then down towards 1080.     

Spreads: The July/November carry firmed to 15 1/2 cents today, up from its recent low near 21.

The July/Dec corn spread lost some ground today, 2 cents, to close at 27 3/4. It's widest close has been 28 1/2, occurring twice over the last week. This level represents a good limited risk buy in our opinion, because that inter-crop year spread very rarely trades this wide. There are two potential bullish items that could tighten it in our opinion--very strong farmer holding at these very low prices, and the possibility that China finally steps in and makes some corn purchases. The nearby low is near 30.

Weather:  Winter wheat conditions stayed at Neutral today, per TStorm's global assessment, and corn and beans stayed at Favorable.

TStorm's closing summary indicates no immediate threat to the very favorable conditions is seen at this time:

Two cool fronts trigger t-storms across the southeast ~75% of U.S. corn and soybeans twice through Sunday (1.00" to 2.00" most common), while much of the central and northern Plains are fairly dry with less to much-less than 0.33". T-storms then focus on / near OK-TX through the mid-South Mon.-Wed. as a cool front weakens.

Temperatures turn cooler across a wide area through Fri.-Sat., then plummet Sat.-Sun. as 5 days of unseasonable coolness starts. Temperatures remain likely to turn warmer to much-warmer next Thu.-Sat. (Jun. 18-20), which should ignite t-storms in varying areas at varying times one to two weeks out (while keeping temperatures close to normal for most corn, soybeans, and spring wheat).

However, some other weather watchers are now talking about the possibility of something called a "Super El Nino" forming, where ocean temperatures heat up and as a result increases the odds of a future drought. It's something to keep an eye on, and we will keep readers updated with more on this. 

Markets/Trading Implications

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As said yesterday, we're seeing some progress on the charts, albeit slowly but (hopefully) surely. A few shorter term moving averages have crossed back over in a positive way in corn and wheat, and there's bullish divergence forming on the soybean charts. Today's close in July beans was an important positive in our view, and we see very little downside potential in the short run for corn and wheat. 

The June S&D is tomorrow, and is one that  has historically brought some volatility, and with average trade guesses pointing to a big nothing, our guess is fund managers would be more inclined to worry about a surprise than to press here. We'd be surprised to see them keep stepping on the gas, and we really don't see them looking to build a short position in corn.

We're not advising any new sales here. If you're behind and feeling the pressure, give us a call before you do anything into a break like this. 

Other Notes

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• Here are the updated charts for corn, soybeans, wheat, and crude oil.

  
  
  
  

• Below the charts are the average trade guesses for the S&D report. The wheat production numbers are seen as having the biggest potential for surprises. 

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 2 showed actively traded funds sold a net 90k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 115k. They sold 34k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 156k, and sold 39k Chicago wheat, pushing net shorts up to 58k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 21 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 33 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 23 cents, soybeans lost another 44 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 23 cents. This all suggests that funds are likely near flat in corn, which is pretty remarkable considering where they were just a handful of weeks ago.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.