Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/05/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	417 3/4	-7
Corn Dec '26	446	-5 1/2
Beans July '26	1121 1/4	-8
Beans Nov '26	1137 1/2	-4
Wheat-Chi July '26	580	-1 1/2
Wheat-KC July '26	620 3/4	+1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	619 1/2	-1/2
Cotton Dec '26	77.48	-1.01
Crude Oil July '26	90.54	-2.50
US Dollar Index	100.050	+0.625
Dow Jones	50,936	-735

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Yeesh. Just more selling. The grains tried to rebound again early, as has been the case most of this week, but the day session knocked them right back down and they leaked to new lows across the board. Fridays tend to be trend days, and that was certainly the case today.

It was more of the same long liquidation that has defined the whole week. Corn, beans, and wheat all finished lower, with the funds continuing to pare back what had been very large positions.

The outside markets were just as volatile. Crude rallied earlier in the week and yesterday morning on talk of Israel attacking Lebanon, but since then the ceasefire chatter has taken over and flipped the market back and forth. It gave back about three dollars today, sitting roughly seven off the century mark. Equities were wild as well, with the NASDAQ collapsing nearly four percent lower after recent all time highs after all time highs. It was a risk off day across the board, piling onto an already heavy week.

The lone positive came on the bean side. We have talked for some time about how much more expensive US beans were than Brazil, and now we are officially cheaper August and beyond. That could finally entice China to get moving on the deal that was negotiated.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The ongoing meltdown in July corn continues with it making a new contract low today. We slipped through 424 today meaning 410-414 remain the next major support levels.  Resistance is at 425 to start and then around 440 and 455.

July soybeans continue to take out recently cited support levels and have closed under the 200 day moving average for consecutive days. Below today's close support is near 1114 and then all the way down near 1080-1090.

Spreads: The July/November carry had a volatile week in its own right, getting back near 12 yesterday before weakening back near 15 today.  We have been saying that we felt the spread would provide a buying opportunity near a 13-14 cent carry.

The July/Dec corn spread has been back and forth this week as well, but ended the week near 29 cents. We certainly find these levels attractive considering the impressive run of exports and possible Chinese interest.

Weather:  

TStorm upgraded soybeans to Slightly Favorable today, joining corn and winter wheat, which were both already there.

US corn dryness is still a slight concern, running 45 to 48 percent drier than normal over the last 14 and 30 days with good to excellent ratings below normal at 67 percent. Spring wheat dryness has eased, though Sunday's 47 percent good to excellent rating was the third lowest for the week since 1986.

Rain and storms favor the southeast half of the belt through early next week, with a separate system clipping the northern Plains around Sunday and Monday. It stays very warm for the next seven days before a large system and cool front break the pattern late next week, ushering in several seasonable to cool days with any real heat unlikely until June 20 or later.

Markets/Trading Implications

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A week to forget certainly....althrough unfortunately that's not how it works in this business.

We said when corn and beans started rolling over below key moving averages that fund managers would likely panic a bit and shift into liquidation mode. We just did not think it would run to this extent. Contract lows in July corn were not in our playbook, not with the suddenly tighter carryover, an export market that is on fire, the talk of possible China business, and the energy and fertilizer issues out of the Strait that are not going away. But here we are.

The good news is we got excellent sales off at the literal highs this Spring...though with more old crop still to move and better than half of the new crop book left, this slide leaves a sour taste regardless. We continue to think this is a flush more than anything.

With beans particularly, the story we keep coming back to is finally turning. US origin is now cheaper than Brazil into August and beyond, and that is exactly the kind of thing that pulls China off the sidelines. Time will tell.

We're not advising any new sales here. If you're behind and feeling the pressure, give us a call before you do anything into a break like this.

Other Notes

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For the week, July corn lost nearly 30 cents, December corn about the same, July soybeans lost 67 cents, November soybeans about 56 cents, July wheat 32 cents, and December cotton $1.90.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 2 showed actively traded funds sold a net 90k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 115k. They sold 34k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 156k, and sold 39k Chicago wheat, pushing net shorts up to 58k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 21 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 33 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 23 cents, soybeans lost another 44 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 23 cents. This all suggests that funds are likely near flat in corn, which is pretty remarkable considering where they were just a handful of weeks ago.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.