Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 06/04/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	424 1/4	-7
Corn Dec '26	451 3/4	-8
Beans July '26	1129 1/4	-24 1/4
Beans Nov '26	1141 1/4	-25 1/2
Wheat-Chi July '26	581 3/4	-5 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	620 1/4	-3 3/4
Wheat-MN July '26	631 3/4	-5 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	78.49	-2.02
Crude Oil July '26	93.02	-3.00
US Dollar Index	99.425	-0.060
Dow Jones	51,666	+863

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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Corn, beans, and wheat all pushed to new multi month lows again, with July corn carving out a fresh contract low and July beans dipping below their 200 day before a late bounce trimmed some of the loss.

The new wrinkle was talk that the Section 301 tariffs coming back in July would anger China and put their commitment to buy our beans and other ag goods at risk. We don't see it that way, and neither does much of anyone we talk to, but it was enough to give the funds another reason to keep selling. Underneath it all this was still mostly fund liquidation, same as it's been for two weeks running.

One thing worth noting under the surface. With all the bearish chatter on China and tariffs, the July/November bean spread actually firmed about four cents off its intraday low. Our guess is that some of the bigger traders were looking for bad news to fade rather than chase it.

Outside markets were a circus. Israel hit a target in Lebanon overnight before a ceasefire was announced, and crude rallied and then sold off hard.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: The ongoing meltdown in July corn continues with it making a new contract low today. We mentioned 424 as being support yesterday and that's right where we closed today. Below that 414 is support ant then 297. Resistance is likely around 440 and 455.

July soybeans continue to take out recently cited support levels including the 200 day MA. Below today's close support is near 1114 and then all the way down near 10.80-10.90.

Spreads: The July/November carry had a volatile day in its own right, getting back near 16 cents before firming to 12 and closing at 12 3/4.  We have been saying that we felt the spread would prevent a buying opportunity near a 13-14 cent carry.

The July/Dec corn spread firmed a tad to 27 3/4 today, but still near its "low" of 29. We certainly find these levels attractive considering the impressive run of exports and possible Chinese interest.

Weather:  

TStorm left ratings unchanged again today, with corn and winter wheat holding at Slightly Favorable and beans at Neutral.

The forecast still looks crop friendly. A large upper level high keeps a wide area warmer than normal over the next 7 to 10 days, with pockets of rain and storms floating through a broad corn, bean, and spring wheat area early on. The setup starts to break down June 10 to 12 as a system moves in from the Pacific Northwest, and a trailing system a few days later drags cooler air into the central US. The end result is near normal rainfall for most over the next 14 days, with the warmth fading to seasonable or cool around mid month.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Two straight weeks of one way selling has done real damage to the charts, and we won't pretend otherwise. But the thing to keep in mind is where all this length came from in the first place. When the funds built their big long over the past couple years, they did it after covering a net short that started near a 410 spot corn low last summer, and today's low is only 11 cents above that. The market has already handed back nearly everything, and our guess is there's far less fund selling left than the last two weeks would suggest, especially with our continued belief that they will NOT be looking to get net short, or at least stay that way long.

On corn, the export story hasn't changed a bit even as the price fell apart. Old crop sales are running well ahead of a year ago, and the pace argues for the export figure to be raised before the crop year is out. It's hard to square that kind of demand with a fresh contract low, and we'd be very reluctant to add sales down here.

Beans are the tougher read since so much hangs on China, but as we have been saying for awhile now, they are more likely working behind the scenes on breaks with upside protection than coming out saying (or actually buying) when near the top 1/4 of a long term trading range. Also, the tariff fear behind today's selling strikes us as overdone, and the way the July/November spread firmed late tells us at least some large traders feel the same. 

We're not advising any new sales here. If you're behind and feeling the pressure, give us a call before you do anything into a break like this.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 26 showed actively traded funds sold a net 88k corn contracts, taking net longs down to 226k contracts. They sold 18k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 190k, and sold 14k Chicago wheat, increasing net shorts to 39k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 18 cents, July beans lost 24 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 32 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 8 cents, soybeans were flat, and Chicago wheat lost 26 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.