Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- 6/12/2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	412 6	+1
Corn Dec '26	440 2	+6
Beans July '26	1113 4	-1 1/2
Beans Nov '26	1132	-2
Wheat-Chi July '26	584 4	-2 1/4
Wheat-KC July '26	634 4	-1/4
Wheat-MN July '26	618 1/4	-1 1/4
Cotton Dec '26	76.50	+0.14
Crude Oil June '26	84.48	-3.23
US Dollar Index	99.520	-0.330
Dow Jones	51,207	+332

Outside markets listed may not represent the actual close based on the timing in which this letter was sent.

Daily Glance commodity market

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It was another quiet one, low volume again with the report behind us. Yesterday's number was a non-event, and after a modest selloff on light trade we bounced a touch overnight before settling into a sideways drift the rest of the day.

Most everything finished near flat. That sideways action stands out, especially set against the slide we'd watched build through Monday and into midweek.

Crude was the live wire again. Iran leaked something on the negotiation overnight that Trump took issue with, and he hit back quickly, which rallied oil a few dollars before it sank right back toward the lows.

A close down here would put crude near a two month low on the week. Our markets have stayed tied to it, and the grain trade leaned on that crude weakness even as it tried to firm.

The pattern all week was the same drift, and Friday mostly held to it, just with less give than the days before.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Little changes to end the week with our 410 support level continuing to hold firm. Below 410 see see support all the way near 397. Resistance is at this week's high near 425, and then at 440 and 455. 

The selling in July soybeans has certainly slowed and thus there is major bullish divergence brewing although we need a lasting move above 1125 for that to take shape. Resistance above there is at 1135 and 1160. Support is near todays low of 1010 and then down towards 1080.     

Spreads: The July/November carry was sideways late in the week closing at 19 1/2 cents, although still up from its recent low near 21.

The July/Dec corn spread was unchanged at 27 3/4. It's widest close has been 28 1/2, occurring twice over the last week. This level represents a good limited risk buy in our opinion, because that inter-crop year spread very rarely trades this wide. There are two potential bullish items that could tighten it in our opinion--very strong farmer holding at these very low prices, and the possibility that China finally steps in and makes some corn purchases. The nearby low is near 30.

Weather: TStorm left its ratings unchanged, with corn and beans still Favorable and winter wheat Neutral on head scab risk.

Scattered storms move across the southeast half of the central US Saturday into Sunday as a sharply cooler stretch sets in, with more storms early next week near the mid-South. The Plains turn much warmer Tuesday into Wednesday before a series of cool fronts pushes from the northern Plains through the Corn Belt midweek, and a heavy cluster of storms looks likely in the Belt with that.

More storms set up one to two weeks out as the pattern holds. Dryness just isn't a concern for corn or spring wheat right now, with only a small share of expected production running drier than normal over the past month, a sharp drop from where things stood in late May.

Markets/Trading Implications

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Funds like to paint a picture with how they sit, and the picture they've drawn lately has been a heavy one including flipping short as of Tuesday. So we'd call it a quiet positive that we traded sideways from Tuesday on, since Tuesday was the last day that made it into this week's reporting. We have said for some time now that we are NOT in the camp that thinks fund managers are looking to build some sort of long term net short position.

The next couple weeks set up quiet, with weather still looking stellar and the next big report not until the end of the month. Step back and look at where corn and beans sit versus the start of the war, and we have a hard time seeing how any headline from here, good or bad, moves things much unless it's a major escalation.

The wild card is China. They've waited very quietly in the shadows through this whole selloff, and it wouldn't surprise us one bit if they're already buying upside protection for purchases down the road. It makes you wonder whether the White House gave them a quiet read that the Iran situation would settle and prices were getting more enticing.

For anyone who missed our sales near the highs or has bushels to move short term, we'll say it plainly. This is not the spot to sell unless you absolutely have to. Give us a call before you do anything and we'll talk it through.

Other Notes

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For the week, July corn lost 4 3/4 cents, December corn lost 5 3/4 cents, July beans lost 8 cents, November beans low 5 1/2 cents, July wheat gained 4 1/2 cents, and December cotton lost 98 pts.

Static Notes

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The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 9 showed actively traded funds sold a net 120k corn contracts, flipping short 5k contracts. They sold 65k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 91k, and sold 21k Chicago wheat, pushing net shorts up to 79k. 

In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 21 cents, July beans lost 51 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 18 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 7 cents, soybeans were flat, and Chicago wheat was flat. 

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.