Daily Market Analysis -- May 8th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	471 1/2	+3 3/4
Corn Dec '26	493 1/2	+4
Beans July '26	1208	+15 3/4
Beans Nov '26	1189 1/2	+16
Wheat-Chi July '26	619	+6 3/4
Wheat-KC July '26	675 3/4	+8 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	678 1/2	+4 3/4
Cotton Dec '26	85.44	+1.75
Crude Oil June '26	95.42	+0.61
US Dollar Index	97.765	-0.180
Dow Jones	49,691	-9

Daily Glance

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Markets finished the week on a much firmer note after what was an ugly middle stretch. Corn and beans both rallied off yesterday's late session lows where the 50 day moving averages got tested, hit a variety of stops, and reversed before closing well off the bottom. The buying picked back up overnight and continued throughout the day Friday.

Beans turned positive on the week with a meaningful bounce off yesterday's lows. Corn pushed back through the 4.70 area we have been talking about as a big pivot, recovering a good chunk of yesterday's losses. Wheat joined the firmer tone as well, though both corn and wheat are still down on the week.

Crude oil continued to coil within the range from earlier this week's sharp sell off, with each session bringing a tighter range than the last. The latest geopolitical wrinkle was a so called "love tap" from the US, with a couple of missiles fired toward Tehran as a warning shot while everyone waits for Iran's response to Tuesday's MOU offer. Equities were mixed with the Dow flat but the Nasdaq continuing to tear higher, with some calling it a melt up.

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Corn found support yesterday near where fund managers flipped long in early March and continued that strength today and closing near the 472 pivot point we have been mentioning. 468 and Thursdays low near 462 will be support for the time being.

July soybeans had a nice close to the week, closing above our support level near 1195. Below that, 1182 and and 1170 should provide ample support. Resistance above todays high is near 1215.

Spreads: The July/November inverse weakened to only 17 cents yesterday before closing back near 19 today. Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread got all the way to 23 today before firming a bit ending near 21 1/4 today. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes, and feel this is a low risk entry for a bull spread. 

Weather: TStorm upgraded all three today, with corn moved to Slightly Favorable, soybeans to Slightly Favorable, and wheat to Favorable. Showers and thunderstorms affect the southeast half of the central US through Sunday as a couple of features pass, while the northwest half stays dry. Some thunderstorms follow next week within the northeast half of the Corn Belt, but most other areas remain dry. The Corn Belt and mid-South stay cool into the middle of next week, while very warm and hot weather starts in the Plains, with that warmth then overspreading the central US one to two weeks out. Upper level high pressure forms in the southern or southeastern US late next week, though it is unclear whether it locates nearer Texas or Florida, which will determine whether a favorable or unfavorable setup for thunderstorms unfolds. Limited rains between now and then will likely allow US corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting to race forward.

Markets/Trading Implications

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We had been talking all week about not thinking this market could get away to the downside and to avoid chasing the sale recommendations we put out earlier in the week. Today's close confirms that thinking. The long term pivot points near 1170 in beans and 455 in corn that we referenced as our point of worry feel a bit safer for the time being, though we are always one headline away from that changing.

That said, with a big week ahead full of unknowns and the markets recouping half or more of this week's losses, this isn't a bad spot to make some catch up sales for those still behind. The Tuesday WASDE will force the trade to start digesting new crop balance sheets and we will get a good look at where the USDA has the HRW wheat yield, with the week wrapping up with the US/China Beijing Summit. A lot for everyone to chew on.

Our bias on the China/US meeting is a positive one, but that could change without some sort of resolution in place with Iran ahead of it. The bigger question is if and when China resumes their import program from us, especially in the short term with US beans still so much more expensive than Brazilian. Crude oil will continue to be a driver as well as it works through this coiling pattern, with something likely brewing given the back to back tighter range days.

Other Notes

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For the week, July corn was down 8 1/2 December corn was down 4 3/4, July soybeans was up 4 3/4, November soybeans was up 6 3/4, July wheat was down 16 1/2, and December cotton was up .88

Here are the average trade guesses for Tuesdays USDA Supply and Demand report. We will share more of our thoughts on the expectations on Monday. The wheat production number will likely get the most attention.

Static Note

The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, April 28 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to a massive 344k. They bought 36kk soybeans, bringing net longs up to 222k, and sold 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net short position of roughly 8k contracts after being net not the prior week.

In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 4 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 9 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 9 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so.

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.