Daily Commodity Market Analysis -- May 11th 2026

Contract	Close	Net Change
Corn July '26	475 1/4	+4
Corn Dec '26	497 3/4	+4 1/4
Beans July '26	1213	+5
Beans Nov '26	1194 3/4	+5 1/4
Wheat-Chi July '26	634	+15
Wheat-KC July '26	686 1/4	+10 1/2
Wheat-MN July '26	686 1/2	+8
Cotton Dec '26	87.40	+1.94
Crude Oil June '26	98.60	+3.18
US Dollar Index	97.83	+.05
Dow Jones	49,704	+95

Daily Glance commodity market

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More gains for our markets today with crude oil strength continuing to be a positive force and some position squaring in front of tomorrow's S&D. Remember, this month's report is more important than usual because it offers the first official look at new crop corn and soybeans. 

Crude oil reacted to President Trump's response to Iran's answer to the US Memorandum of Understanding by calling it "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE"--his capital letters. Crude shot up to just shy of a $5 gain on the news, and after chopping around all day, managed to hold on to most of that. This was seen as a positive for grains, but oddly enough the soybean oil market, which has typically seen the best correlation with crude price changes, actually traded lower most of the day (after initially following crude higher).

By the close, corn and beans ended at 3-4 session highs, while Chicago wheat managed the biggest gain, also ending at a 4 day high.

Outside markets featured the crude strength plus another day of gains for the stock market.

Anticipation of the scheduled summit in Beijing between Trump and Xi was also seen as supportive, as sentiment seems to be leaning toward expectation of some tangible buying interest on China's part, although one could easily argue against that when you consider the strain to the relationship that the ongoing war with Iran has undoubtedly brought on. This afternoon Trump extended an invitation to Elon Musk and about 15-20 other top CEO's to join him on his trip to China--which added to the optimism that good things will come from this meeting. Time will tell...

Key Points/Developments:

Technicals: Corn continued its creep higher and today managed to close above the pivot point at 472 discussed in Friday's letter. That level would now be expected to offers some support, as well as 468 and Thursdays low near 462. Resistance is likely at 482, 488-490.

July soybeans managed to end with a gain, but actually ended in the lower half of today's range, a less than impressive late performance. We see support at 1204, 1190, and 1170. Resistance at today's high around 1223 and then at 1240 and 1250. 

Spreads: The July/November saw some early strength fade into the close, ending near unchanged at 18 1/4 . Bulls will want to see it back above 45 to get excited.

The July/Dec corn spread was also nearly unchanged, increasing the carry by 1/4 cent, now at 22 1/2 cents. We had been saying that a move back toward 21 was a buy in our eyes, and feel this is a low risk entry for a bull spread. 

Weather: TStorm continues to peg global corn and soybean conditions as Slightly Favorable, and winter wheat as Favorable. This wheat rating seems odd considering that this afternoon's crop condition report put overall wheat conditions at only 28% good/excellent (down 3% from last week), which is the 2nd worse rating for this week in history. 

Over the next 5 to 7 days, very warm weather in the Plains contrasts with cool weather in the eastern Corn Belt. Some energy flows between each air mass to trigger some showers and t-storms in the Corn Belt, but with totals mostly light as corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting continue.

A large cold front likely moves across the central U.S. Sat.-Mon. with pockets of showers and t-storms -- especially in / near the Corn Belt. We continue to forecast light to moderate totals within a wide area 5 to 7 days out.

Markets/Trading Implications

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All bets are off now pending tomorrow's Supply and Demand report, followed up by Thursday and Friday's Beijing summit. In the big picture, corn, beans, and wheat all remain in uptrends both in terms of their respective daily and weekly charts and in that funds continue to have a strong bullish bias, plus a critical meeting with China begins in several days. Volatility seems likely to pick up, and with the planting proceeding nicely and, for now, comfortable carryovers, any significant strength resulting from that volatility would set up some nice selling opportunities. 

Our bias on the China/US meeting is a positive one, but that could change without some sort of resolution in place with Iran ahead of it. The bigger question is if and when China resumes their import program from us, especially in the short term with US beans still so much more expensive than Brazilian. Crude oil will continue to be a driver as well as it works through this coiling pattern, with something likely brewing given the back to back tighter range days.

Other Notes

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• Planting progress is moving along quickly. Corn is now 57% planted, up 19% from last week, and soybeans are at 49%, up 16%. 

• Here are the average trade guesses for Tuesdays USDA Supply and Demand report. We will share more of our thoughts on the expectations on Monday. The wheat production number will likely get the most attention.

  
  

Static Notes

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• The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, May 5 showed actively traded funds bought a net 80k corn contracts, taking net longs up to a massive 344k. They bought 36kk soybeans, bringing net longs up to 222k, and sold 21k Chicago wheat, flipping them to a net short position of roughly 8k contracts after being net not the prior week.

  
  
  
  

   In the corresponding week of price activity, corn gained 4 cents, beans lost a cent, and Chicago wheat lost 24 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost 9 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost another 9 cents.

  
  

The following table is a "bird's eye" view of our recommended sales levels. Please note that these are meant to be very general guidelines and do not apply to all readers due to the critical differences and unique situations that may exist. Among other possible differences, those current with the following coverage levels might be perfectly comfortable with the expectation of buying some of these sales back at lower levels, whereas others might have no interest in doing so. commodity market

Crop Year	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Corn	80%	40%	0%
Soybeans	85%	40%	0%
Wheat	100%	30%	0%

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

RISK DISCLAIMER:Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.